ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Just Joshing You]

why were those solutions junk again (48 hours ago)?

So I guess the NHC is discounting the Nogaps, GFS, Euro, and NAM models, which have TD17 missing this weekends trough.

it has been explained many times why those solutions are junk

Well, Derek probably said that because the GFDL and NHC thought that TD17 would catch the trough.

[jinftl]

I'm not sure, i mean the NHC certainly acknowledged varying model solutions on wednesday in regards to speed....and acknowledged that the models can be too quick to eject systems out to the atlantic this time of year....they didn't forecast it at the time, but certainly the reasoning behind mentioning it was not because it was junk. And a system moving much slower would open the window for a change in track as atmospheric conditions are always in flux and a high pressure ridge was forecast even then to set up by monday of next week in the atlantic....which would impede the system from racing into the atlantic. Nothing about this is implies we now have a florida system...just that there may well have been serious blunders in the track forecast way too early in the game by the board overall....not any one person in particular.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 PM EST WED NOV 05 2008

A TWELVE-HOUR MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 305/4. A SLOW
NORTHWEST TO NORTH MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS THE DEPRESSION IS STEERED AROUND SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. A DEEP
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND ACCELERATE. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT SPEED DISCREPANCIES IN
THE MODELS WITH THE GFDL/HWRF CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODELS. LATE-SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN
NOTORIOUSLY SLOW-MOVING...E.G. MITCH OR WILMA...AND THE MODELS CAN
BE TOO QUICK TO EJECT THESE SYSTEMS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. WE'RE
GOING TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME...AND THE NHC
FORECAST IS A BIT BEHIND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Sadly, this is currently devastating the Cayman Island and could
reach Category 4 strength as it continues to intensify. It could
with the stretch of water before Cuba briefly reach category 5,
which would be catastrophic. The damage across this area, from
Cayman to Cuba, will be extreme with many structures entirely destroyed,
many homes wiped out, a very terrible situation for those in the path.
Prayers go out tonight. It is hell on that Island right Now. And it is getting
worse, can you imagine how terrifying it must be to go through a strengthening
major....or any hurricane for that matter...very tragic
I HATE hurricanes when they hurt people like this.
Cuba has had 4 of these monsters this year.

I only hope that the buildings are up to building code.


This is one of those times when you get that very sick feeling in your stomach watching
a disaster unfold and feeling helpless to stop it from hurting people.

[EyELeSs1]

looks much better for grand cayman right now with a NE-ENE wobble...worse for the smaller islands though...

[HURAKAN]

WOW!

[Derek Ortt]

looks much better for grand cayman right now with a NE-ENE wobble...worse for the smaller islands though...

not really, the strongest winds according to recon are west of the center

[Derek Ortt]

the solutions did turn out to be junk... this is hitting east to central Cuba

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I hope shear butchers this monster before it gets to Cuba....probably won't
happen. Stupid Hurricane, just die Paloma.

[Just Joshing You]

WOW!

Can someone FINALLY post the AHI.. or tell me where I can find it.

[CrazyC83]

WOW!

Can someone FINALLY post the AHI.. or tell me where I can find it.

I don't know where it is found.

[EyELeSs1]

WOW!

Can someone FINALLY post the AHI.. or tell me where I can find it.

you can find it from the SHIPS model text output (at the bottom)..unfortunately i don't have a link to the ftp or site that has it

[Crostorm]

[Blown Away]

At what point does the NHC start to back off the Paloma going on a NE track into the Atlantic? I know they slowed down the track, but I got to think they will be showing a W bend to the 4-5 day track soon?

[cycloneye]

WOW!

Can someone FINALLY post the AHI.. or tell me where I can find it.

Code: Select all

##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172008     PALOMA 11/08/08  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY   

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

[Crostorm]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

EDIT: make that NE to ENE but maybe NNE..something in between...direction
is difficult to discern even on mimic:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t48hrs.gif

Link to mimic.

[Blown Away]

Another just in time wobble, they must be praying hard on the Cayman!

[cycloneye]

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... B1=RADARES

[carolina_73]

The East end of Grand Cayman is showing a 1 min average of 63mph. The highest gust is 79mph. Pressure is still being shown at 994mb.http://caymanchillin.com/caymanchillin-weather.html

[sevenleft]

The East end of Grand Cayman is showing a 1 min average of 63mph. The highest gust is 79mph. Pressure is still being shown at 994mb.http://caymanchillin.com/caymanchillin-weather.html

They may have lucked out and not gotten the most intense winds. The heart of the eyewall has been around the 980MB range.