ATL: PALOMA - Models

[DESTRUCTION5]

Dont look now but the 18Z GFDL Destroys Central Cuba and Brings Paloma rright back to where she is RIGHT NOW....And Keeps her below 21N the whole time...

[El Nino]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200817_model.html#a_topad

Very strange models ...

[Blown Away]

From what I see now is all the models are weakening Paloma to a TD or less in 4-5 days

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200817_model.html#a_topad

Very strange models ...

ALL 5 models have this making a hard west turn on day 5...if it were to go back into the caribbean-
that might have it stay intense- bad news folks. GFDL has now shifted, and GFDL and HWRF
each show a sharp west turn that takes place south of Florida south of Cuba per GFDL and near
FL's latitude per HWRF

[Blown Away]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200817_model.html#a_topad

Very strange models ...

ALL 5 models have this making a hard west turn on day 5...if it were to go back into the caribbean-
that might have it stay intense- bad news folks. GFDL has now shifted, and GFDL and HWRF
each show a sharp west turn that takes place south of Florida south of Cuba per GFDL and near
FL's latitude per HWRF

The intensity of all those models is almost below TD at the end run.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200817_model.html#a_topad

Very strange models ...

ALL 5 models have this making a hard west turn on day 5...if it were to go back into the caribbean-
that might have it stay intense- bad news folks. GFDL has now shifted, and GFDL and HWRF
each show a sharp west turn that takes place south of Florida south of Cuba per GFDL and near
FL's latitude per HWRF

The intensity of all those models is almost below TD at the end run.

Thank goodness for that!!! Yes that part is important, by day 5 this would be just an area of rain
with 20 mph breezes at most.

[Crostorm]

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z GFS takes Tropical WAVE Paloma into and up the ECFL...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

12Z GFDL just out, poof over Eastern Cuba then remnants go back west over the Caribbean, never making it into the Atlantic. Yesterday, I was explaining my throughts that Paloma may never escape the Caribbean....

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET poof just before landfall in Cuba....

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

12Z UKMET poof just before landfall in Cuba....

Well with just a few hours until landfall I don't think thats going to happen! According to recon we are dealing with a cat 4 145mph Hurricane right now. Its not going to just die out in a few hours!

[jinftl]

Agree...the storm is 30 miles from landfall and the winds were increased to 145 mph.....not to mention the storm surge that is going to take place....that won't be diminished by a last minute weakening anyways (although it looks like we will see a landfalling Cat 4 again in Cuba...best case maybe a 3....not much of a 'best' case)

12Z UKMET poof just before landfall in Cuba....

Well with just a few hours until landfall I don't think thats going to happen! According to recon we are dealing with a cat 4 145mph Hurricane right now. Its not going to just die out in a few hours!

[Sanibel]

Models looping north of Cuba are incorrect. Stall over Cuba. Stopped on a dime.


Lollipop for Gatorcane and never escapes the caribbean.

[O Town]

Look! Its the Paloma spider.....

[CaneMaster]

LMAO that is great, why don't they just say "umm hey look, it's like this, we don't know where this thing is heading." Instead the models just say look man it can go anywhere north.. south.. east. west... it can go anywhere, ... ......

[gatorcane]

If you are a GFS believer, this is the most bullish I have seen on it redeveloping Paloma's remnants (12Z run shown below). I like the GFS but do not agree Paloma will regenerate like this. The only model that redevelops Paloma is the GFS but no other models do so it makes me question what the GFS is seeing.

[gatorcane]

GFS 18Z....POOF.

Bye-bye Paloma.