ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Squarethecircle]

Maybe they're counting on the fact that they can issue a special advisory if necessary?

[Just Joshing You]

Well, they didn't do this with Omar. They were saying Omar was a mid-range Cat 3 but then 20 minutes later, recon found Cat 4 and NHC even mentioned it in the next Disco.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...
195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS

Hmm, I'm still saying 120 MPH is too low, but we shall see.

I think a special update will be needed. According to the T-# they are about 20mb to high with their pressure of 958mb and about 22kt to low with their current max wind speed of 105kt

[Cainer]

Maybe they're counting on the fact that they can issue a special advisory if necessary?

If recon does find a Cat. 4, I would count on a Special Advisory within the hour. They could have maybe waited a bit longer to issue this advisory; the plane is already pretty close, and should begin to experience some serious wind soon. But oh well, I'm not the boss!

[southmdwatcher]

The eye looked less symmetrical for the first time in hours on the last satellite pic 10 minutes ago.

[Sanibel]

I'm worried that the imperfect eye is another intensification flux. Reconnaissance will tell shortly. We could be at 120mph due to weak conditions. Still an impressive hurricane.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

looks very formidable

[CrazyC83]

Recon: SFMR 115 kt in NW quad. FL winds lower but with this convection, I'd have to say 115 kt is accurate as the NW quad may not be the strongest.

[southmdwatcher]

952 mb 115 kt sfmr

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

115 kt = 132 mph at the surface...category 4 no surprise
praying hard for those in the path

[Just Joshing You]

Well, this exact same thing happened with Omar, and they didn't give a special advisory. They mentioned it was a Category 4 in the next disco only.

[CrazyC83]

Well, this exact same thing happened with Omar, and they didn't give a special advisory. They mentioned it was a Category 4 in the next disco only.

Yeah that's true, although they were on 2-hour advisories at the time. At least, I would expect a Tropical Cyclone Update around 1:30 am once the VDM comes in.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its a cat4 based on smrf. I strongly believe it is so...

[Just Joshing You]

Its a cat4 based on smrf. I strongly believe it is so...

When are you going to eat those socks?

[HURAKAN]

060000 1917N 08030W 6966 02730 9473 +199 +050 161015 023 030 006 00

WOW, 947 mb.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Lowest pressure recorded was 947.3mb and highest winds 117kt SE Quad

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

117 knot = 135 mph category 4. Confirms satellite presentation

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

117 knot = 135 mph category 4. Confirms satellite presentation

well that 117kts was flight level so with a 90% reduction it comes out slightly below that. However add the 115kt SFMR reading in the North-West quad I would say this is indeed a Cat 4

[sevenleft]

117 knot = 135 mph category 4. Confirms satellite presentation

117 knot flight level winds convert to 105 knot surface winds. It's a bit contradictory right now. There was ONE unflagged 115KT SFMR in the NW eyewall, which would be Category 4. That was surrounded by flagged SFMR readings. The SE eyewall only had a maximum FL wind of 117 knots, and only a maximum SFMR wind of 90 knots. I don't think its enough evidence to warrant an upgrade to Category 4, yet. Even with the satellite appearance.

[Sanibel]

I'm fairly certain Little Cayman won't escape an eyewall hit on the strong side at this point.

I need sleep. Setting alarm for 4am.

Go by pressure. 947 is a roof-taker pressure.