ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Gustywind]

You're right Hurak, absolutely in the books my friend, history-wise!!!! Excuse me if the sense of my sentence was so doubtfull. Sincerely you know me, how can we say that a monster cane it's a pleasant event for the Caymans islands???? It's a nightmare for all the islands in the path....

Gusty, *smooch*! I was/am just feeling really sad for them...I knew you knew.

Yeah me too remembering sadly Omar scenario, oh it's hard for them, let's pray...

[Blown Away]

Cayman Brac live obs:
http://www.neoc.gov.ky/CYB/index.html
Main: http://www.neoc.gov.ky/

This station reporting Cat 1 sustained with Cat 3 gusts, pressure going up and winds are starting to come down a little. Hopefully that was the most this island got.

[Gustywind]

Cayman Brac live obs:
http://www.neoc.gov.ky/CYB/index.html
Main: http://www.neoc.gov.ky/

This station reporting Cat 1 sustained with Cat 3 gusts, pressure going up and winds are starting to come down a little. Hopefully that was the most this island got.

TKANKS nice and pertinent info guy

[HURAKAN]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Devastating eyewall near the islands...praying for those people

[TampaFl]

Hurricane Paloma on Pilon, Cuba radar:

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif

[MGC]

Incredible hurricane for November or any time. Praying for the people in the Cayman's and Cuba. Don't look like the shear will arrive in time to spare Cuba.....MGC

[Chacor]

Code: Select all

TCCA22 KNHC 081251
STDCCA

SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SAT NOV  8 2008


SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...PALOMA

                                             MAX RAINFALL
  DATE/TIME      LOCATION       MOTION      MEAN      LAST
 -----------   ------------     ------     -------   -------
  8/1215 UTC   19.7N  79.7W     045/06     17.8 IN   14.4 IN


LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...

     DISTANCE          LEFT OF CENTER      RIGHT OF CENTER
   -------------      ---------------      ---------------
   0 TO 1 DEGREE       6.7 TO 12.3 IN      10.4 TO 14.4 IN
   1 TO 2 DEGREE       0.9 TO  6.5 IN       2.9 TO 14.3 IN
   2 TO 3 DEGREE       0.0 TO  0.8 IN       0.3 TO  2.3 IN
   3 TO 4 DEGREE       0.0 TO  0.5 IN       0.0 TO  2.3 IN


                        ...LEGEND...

SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...NAME OR NUMBER ASSIGNED TO SYSTEM
                         (E.G. TROPICAL STORM ALPHA, TROPICAL
                         DISTURBANCE 01, SURFACE TROUGH)

DATE/TIME...             DAY OF MONTH AND TIME IN UNIVERSAL TIME
                         COORDINATES (UTC) IN A DY/HRMN FORMAT

LOCATION...              ESTIMATED CENTER OF SYSTEM OR ADVISORY
                         POSITION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TENTHS
                         OF DEGREES OF LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE

MOTION...                ESTIMATED DIRECTION AND SPEED OF SYSTEM
                         IN DEGREES AND KNOTS

MEAN MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE 24-HOUR MEAN MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF
                         RAINFALL FOR THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED
                         ON FOUR SATELLITE IMAGES SIX HOURS APART

LAST MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL FOR
                         THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED ON THE MOST
                         RECENT SATELLITE IMAGE

RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION... THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WITHIN FOUR
                         DEGREES (240 NM) LEFT AND RIGHT OF THE
                         SYSTEM CENTER IN ONE DEGREE (60NM)
                         INCREMENTS...LOOKING DOWNSTREAM
                         (1 IN = 25.4 MM)

[TampaFl]

From Camagiley, Cuba:


http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/04Camaguey/cmwMAXw01a.gif

[wxman57]

Hurricane Paloma on Pilon, Cuba radar:

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

That link takes minutes to work, and it's best not to make such a hot link to an external web page. You can really tax their server over there and make the S2K page load slowly. Just snap a picture, upload it, and post it and/or post the URL to the loop.

Here's the URL:
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... B1=RADARES

Here's the radar image:

[Weatherfreak14]

Incredible hurricane for November or any time. Praying for the people in the Cayman's and Cuba. Don't look like the shear will arrive in time to spare Cuba.....MGC

Right now im in pretty much disbelief, when is the shear suppossed to start to rip this thing apart????

[Blown Away]

I'm trying to figure out if I'm on some drugs looking at this graphic.

[TampaFl]

Hurricane Paloma on Pilon, Cuba radar:

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

That link takes minutes to work, and it's best not to make such a hot link to an external web page. You can really tax their server over there and make the S2K page load slowly. Just snap a picture, upload it, and post it and/or post the URL to the loop.

Here's the URL:
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... B1=RADARES

Here's the radar image:

Thanks Wxman57 for the advice & information - did not no that. Learn something new everyday.

Robert

[wxman57]

http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/5308/93luf0.jpg

I'm trying to figure out if I'm on some drugs looking at this graphic.

The 5-day cone is actually a series of error circles centered on each forecast point. At the 5-day forecast point, this circle is 800 miles across. Typically, the circles aren't drawn as different shaded and translucent, so you won't see the full circle. And when a storm slows down, the "cone" becomes that error circle.

With Paloma, there won't be much left of it beyond 72 hours. I doubt that remnant swirl of clouds will even exist out to day 5.

However, it's possible you could be on drugs.

[KBBOCA]

So how many landfalls would this make for Cuba this season? This has to be something like #5 or 6? Incredible. Poor Cuba. Praying for them. What's the record for one island or state being hit with hurricanes in a given season? Just devastating to look at this storm.

[Dionne]

Did Little Cayman just take a direct hit from the eyewall?

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

Did Little Cayman just take a direct hit from the eyewall?

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 NOV 2008 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 19:45:58 N Lon : 79:28:38 W



CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 930.8mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.7 6.7 6.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +14.5C Cloud Region Temp : -69.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt17L.html

[tomboudreau]

Looks like she is continued to strengthen then with those numbers? Don't want to say this, but if the trend continues, could she become a Cat 5 storm? Where oh where is the shear that is forecasted to enter the picture?