ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Derek Ortt]

definite double eyewall

I think the slight weakening is due to the concentric eyewall, not the shear. The outflow looks fine, but the outer eyewall is intensifying on Cuban radar

[DESTRUCTION5]

172230 2002N 07852W 6400 03582 9667 +106 +057 237130 134 999 999 03

Cat 1 Landfall in doubt......

[gatorcane]

definite double eyewall

I think the slight weakening is due to the concentric eyewall, not the shear. The outflow looks fine, but the outer eyewall is intensifying on Cuban radar

Agreed, looking at some shear maps and models as well as the VIS loop presentation, the shear has not arrived quite yet, so weakening is not happening because of shear, and more strengthening is possible.

[CaneMaster]

I just Hope GFS doesn't stay accurate on future track or NAM, both are leaning to a 95mph+ hurricane headed towards North Carolinas outerbanks.......

[CaneMaster]

Although NAM is showing Dissipation, the GFS is showing it to stay in tact .....

[gatorcane]

I just Hope GFS doesn't stay accurate on future track or NAM, both are leaning to a 95mph+ hurricane headed towards North Carolinas outerbanks.......

12Z GFS poofs Paloma about 700 miles SE of you, in the Bahamas.

Just checked NAM 12Z and it keeps Paloma's remants over the Western Atlantic far from the outer banks even at 84 hours.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the NOAA plane data, still supports 120 kt. Paloma probably peaked at 125 kt at around 1200Z.

[CaneMaster]

I am going off just checking the Model tracks on the Wundermap at Wunderground.....

[CaneMaster]

unless they are glitching out over there at wunderground again........ not the first time it's happened....

[Derek Ortt]

its probably those interpolated models

never use them for intensity. they lack all dynamical logic

[CaneMaster]

[CaneMaster]

That's good to know thanks derek

[wxman57]

172230 2002N 07852W 6400 03582 9667 +106 +057 237130 134 999 999 03

Cat 1 Landfall in doubt......

Yeah, that may be a tad optimistic.

[CaneMaster]

just a little, might wanna stock up over there on the

[gatorcane]

Looking at the VIS loop, seems Paloma is bending more to the left as of the past couple of hours...and may go over a wide part of Eastern Cuba further killing it off.

Unless it wobbles back east, its going to miss the 09/00 UTC forecast point to the left by quite a bit.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Derek Ortt]

radar shown Paloma right on track

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thanks wxman57! good to know that florida is not in any danger.

[gatorcane]

Look at all of the wind shear starting to increase just north and west of Paloma, her days are numbered:

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

90 knot shear will certainly tear it apart...I'm praying it starts weakening before
it hits Cuba.

[Blown Away]

Paloma is running for her life now! Personal prediction, Cuba will receive Cat 1 sustained with Cat 2-3 gusts. Cloud tops are starting to warm a little.