ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Best Track 12z:

AL, 17, 2008110812, , BEST, 0, 197N, 796W, 125, 940, HU

Link: ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 008.invest

In the best track Paloma has been upgraded to 125 knots.

[CrazyC83]

Makes sense, although it might have even been as strong as 130 kt looking at the data. My guess for the lowest pressure is 938mb, just after the Recon left finding 939mb.

[cycloneye]

Although in the latest 18z BEST TRACK update its lower,at 120 kts.

AL, 17, 2008110818, , BEST, 0, 202N, 788W, 120, 950, HU

[HURAKAN]

Looking from Cuba to the Cayman Islands.

[cycloneye]

Makes sense, although it might have even been as strong as 130 kt looking at the data. My guess for the lowest pressure is 938mb, just after the Recon left finding 939mb.

Post Analysis will have the final high intensity.

[Blown Away]

Although in the latest 18z BEST TRACK update its lower,at 120 kts.

AL, 17, 2008110818, , BEST, 0, 202N, 788W, 120, 950, HU

I'd be surprised if those winds are at the surface.

[superfly]

It's been able to keep cat 4 winds despite rising pressure and warming cloud tops by tightening its core. The area of hurricane force winds is very small.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER

[Sanibel]

Same SST's that sent Gus to category 4. And maybe some venting.

[Blown Away]

Same SST's that sent Gus to category 4. And maybe some venting.

Eye starting to fill in.

[HURAKAN]

I wish it will weaken a lot before landfall but it's not happening at the moment.

[HURAKAN]

Same SST's that sent Gus to category 4. And maybe some venting.

Eye starting to fill in.

[Sanibel]

Should have had higher than 111 peak wind on Cayman Brac in west eyewall. I don't understand this it doesn't make sense.

[MiamiensisWx]

Should have had higher than 111 peak wind on Cayman Brac in west eyewall. I don't understand this it doesn't make sense.

Anemometers can't sample the maximum sustained winds in every locale...

I strongly doubt this TC will weaken below major hurricane intensity prior to landfall. Additionally, even if significant weakening occurred, inland flooding and strong winds (over a larger area) would be significant threats.

[Sanibel]

Well left of trop points. Could be into very beginning of stalling turn.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Should have had higher than 111 peak wind on Cayman Brac in west eyewall. I don't understand this it doesn't make sense.

Anemometers can't sample the maximum sustained winds in every locale...

I strongly doubt this TC will weaken below major hurricane intensity prior to landfall. Additionally, even if significant weakening occurred, inland flooding and strong winds (over a larger area) would be significant threats.

I don't think she will weaken much if any before landfall. Recon just found 142kt winds which would support raising the max winds to 145mph. and time is running out for it to weaken

[Sanibel]

It was measured at around 135mph sustained gusts to 160mph over Cayman Brac. Even with differences in measuring equipment position and readings it still makes no sense for a maximum eyewall reading so low in that case.

[Blown Away]

Heading for Santa Cruz Cuba.

[Sanibel]

Winds were recorded at 6:00 am 155 MPH on Cayman Brac but I am sure we will here even more later.

Reports of severe winds and serious damage from Cayman Brac on StormCarib. Sea washing through houses. That 111mph reading was faulty.

[Blown Away]

It was measured at around 135mph sustained gusts to 160mph over Cayman Brac. Even with differences in measuring equipment position and readings it still makes no sense for a maximum eyewall reading so low in that case.

Sustained Cat 1 winds with a 111mph gust was reported from this weather station on Cayman Brac, nothing even close to 135 sustained and 160 gusts.
http://www.neoc.gov.ky/CYB/index.html
Main: http://www.neoc.gov.ky/

[caribepr]

Thankfully so far, no word of injuries or fatalities...this report earlier today from stormcarib.com Updates are there.

Hi All, I just got word from the Brac that they are still having winds in excess of 100+ MPH and there is a lot of damage. The Aston Rutty Center roof did not blow off it was the Seaman’s building. I was told there is not a leaf on a try, so it sound like they had our “Ivan”. Oh…here is more text from Little Cayman….Power poles down, lines, trees, some home damage, most major resorts are okay as far as they can tell however no known fatalities. I am getting calls from Cayman Brac and too much information to type, major damage to homes, seas are washing through homes on the west and south side with sea water right through.

So much info is coming in to me by phone and they are still in high winds and sounding so scared, Winds were recorded at 6:00 am 155 MPH on Cayman Brac but I am sure we will here even more later. I can’t keep up with the calls folks, I can only say for now they are going to need help. British warship on standby south of Cayman Brac awaiting subsiding conditions to proceed in. I got to get to work and get my airplanes back to Grand Cayman as we too will be providing maximum assistance to the sister islands and I need to get my flight crew regrouped.



I will post later after what I suspect will be a very busy day.

Best regards to all and my best wishes to everyone in Brac and Little Cayman.

Chris