ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

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Just Joshing You
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#681 Postby Just Joshing You » Sat Nov 08, 2008 5:04 pm

Blown_away wrote:
Just Joshing You wrote:
Blown_away wrote:Paloma is running for her life now! Personal prediction, Cuba will receive Cat 1 sustained with Cat 2-3 gusts. Cloud tops are starting to warm a little.


Your prediction is going to be at least 2, possibly 3 categories off.


We will see, hopefully I'm right for Cuba's sake. The NHC discounted the satellite presentation and kept Paloma at a Cat 4, she looks worse as the minutes go by. Let's see what kind of reports come out of Cuba after Paloma passes.


Actually, NHC clearly states that the satellite presentation has degraded and still went with 125kt as recon supported not only that, but at least 130 kt.
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#682 Postby jinftl » Sat Nov 08, 2008 5:06 pm

Track of 1932 storm...

Image


Track of Paloma so far...

Image
CrazyC83 wrote:Storm surge comparison - in the 1932 storm, the surge which obliterated Santa Cruz del Sur (on a nearly identical track) was about 21 feet. It was a Category 4/5 before landfall, may have weakened but that didn't matter.
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#683 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Nov 08, 2008 5:07 pm

We've observed numerous weakening TCs that still produced significant destruction... remember that a weakening system often implies a larger wind radii (and more expansive/higher storm surge).

The center will be passing nearly directly over Santa Cruz del Sur...
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#684 Postby jinftl » Sat Nov 08, 2008 5:12 pm

Not to be disrespectful of the people at all in cuba, but let's face it, the building standards there are generally not going to be what you see on Grand Cayman or other hurricane-prone communities....and it doesn't take 145 mph winds before real damage will take place.

And you hit the nai on the head...surge is the real danger here and could be the cause of lives being lost if evacuations did not take place on the coast near landfall. 1932 storm...another November storm...showed that.

MiamiensisWx wrote:We've observed numerous weakening TCs that still produced significant destruction... remember that a weakening system often implies a larger wind radii (and more expansive/higher storm surge).

The center will be passing nearly directly over Santa Cruz del Sur...
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#685 Postby jinftl » Sat Nov 08, 2008 5:21 pm

Good news out of Grand Cayman!!!

Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands – Caribbean Utilities Company, Ltd. has now restored over 90% of its power to the island of Grand Cayman following the passing overnight of Hurricane Paloma. Crews will continue to work throughout the day to complete the process and CUC anticipates that all power will be restored by sunset today.

Any customers who continue to experience outages should call CUC’s outage hotline at 945–1282. If you encounter downed lines, please contact 911 for emergency response.

CUC would like to thank its many customers who called our outage hotline to advise of local outages and allow us to prioritize our response. We appreciate the understanding and cooperation of our customers island wide while we restore service.
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#686 Postby caribepr » Sat Nov 08, 2008 5:40 pm

jinftl wrote:Not to be disrespectful of the people at all in cuba, but let's face it, the building standards there are generally not going to be what you see on Grand Cayman or other hurricane-prone communities....and it doesn't take 145 mph winds before real damage will take place.

And you hit the nai on the head...surge is the real danger here and could be the cause of lives being lost if evacuations did not take place on the coast near landfall. 1932 storm...another November storm...showed that.

MiamiensisWx wrote:We've observed numerous weakening TCs that still produced significant destruction... remember that a weakening system often implies a larger wind radii (and more expansive/higher storm surge).

The center will be passing nearly directly over Santa Cruz del Sur...


Cuba also, in quite recent history, did one of the biggest and best evacuations ever seen, especially in its contrast with what happened with Katrina. I could go back and look up the facts and figures, but you don't have to go back to 1932.

Caymen Brac has been devastated. Grand Caymen, wow, amazing and so wonderful that they seem to have gotten off lightly considering what just passed through. I haven't seen reports from Little Cayman yet but tomorrow, I'm sure, will tell many stories.
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#687 Postby jinftl » Sat Nov 08, 2008 5:43 pm

I have heard the same about the success of large-scale evacuations in cuba before storms....that is encouraging given the surge risk with paloma. If people can get out of the surge zone in any location on the coast, lives are no doubt saved.

caribepr wrote:
jinftl wrote:Not to be disrespectful of the people at all in cuba, but let's face it, the building standards there are generally not going to be what you see on Grand Cayman or other hurricane-prone communities....and it doesn't take 145 mph winds before real damage will take place.

And you hit the nai on the head...surge is the real danger here and could be the cause of lives being lost if evacuations did not take place on the coast near landfall. 1932 storm...another November storm...showed that.

MiamiensisWx wrote:We've observed numerous weakening TCs that still produced significant destruction... remember that a weakening system often implies a larger wind radii (and more expansive/higher storm surge).

The center will be passing nearly directly over Santa Cruz del Sur...


Cuba also, in quite recent history, did one of the biggest and best evacuations ever seen, especially in its contrast with what happened with Katrina. I could go back and look up the facts and figures, but you don't have to go back to 1932.

Caymen Brac has been devastated. Grand Caymen, wow, amazing and so wonderful that they seem to have gotten off lightly considering what just passed through. I haven't seen reports from Little Cayman yet but tomorrow, I'm sure, will tell many stories.
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#688 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Nov 08, 2008 5:43 pm

jinftl wrote:Good news out of Grand Cayman!!!

Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands – Caribbean Utilities Company, Ltd. has now restored over 90% of its power to the island of Grand Cayman following the passing overnight of Hurricane Paloma. Crews will continue to work throughout the day to complete the process and CUC anticipates that all power will be restored by sunset today.

Any customers who continue to experience outages should call CUC’s outage hotline at 945–1282. If you encounter downed lines, please contact 911 for emergency response.

CUC would like to thank its many customers who called our outage hotline to advise of local outages and allow us to prioritize our response. We appreciate the understanding and cooperation of our customers island wide while we restore service.


I suggest FPL head down there and learn a few things from their power company in regards to speedy power restoration.
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#689 Postby MGC » Sat Nov 08, 2008 5:44 pm

Remember that Katrina was weakening rapidly as she approached the Mississippi coast yet still produced a historic surge. Water kills and destroys more efficiently than just wind. My prayers to those in the path of Paloma......MGC
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#690 Postby jinftl » Sat Nov 08, 2008 5:45 pm

From Cayman newspaper...

The monster hurricane that brought driving rain, high winds and flooding to the Cayman Islands from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning finally headed off to Cuba Saturday afternoon.


But the damage, especially on Cayman Brac and Little Cayman, had already been done.


There were reports of widespread destruction across the Sister Islands after Hurricane Paloma slammed into the islands as an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane early Saturday.


Paloma maintained its Cat–4 status, with sustained winds of 140 miles per hour as it churned toward eastern Cuba in the afternoon.


Whole houses had been destroyed on Cayman Brac, roofs were torn from buildings and roads were blocked but there had been no reports of death or serious injury.


We are getting reports of severe damage island–wide, said District Commissioner Ernie Scott, speaking from the Aston Rutty Centre on the Bluff.


There are multiple reports of complete roof loss, a couple of reports of entire buildings down but we won’t be able to confirm this until we get out on the roads, he said.


The runway at Gerard Smith Airport on Cayman Brac is flooded and it could be a few days before flight services between Grand Cayman and the Sister Islands resume, Mr. Scott said.


Two of four operational Hurricane Shelters on the Brac reported damage – part of the roof of the Seafarers Centre was ripped off, while a serious roof leak at the West End Primary School was causing flooding.




Grand Cayman saw its fair share of effects from the storm as well.


Significant flooding in Bodden Town forced the government to open a shelter at the local civic centre for residents who could not go home.


Some homes in George Town reported up to a foot of water getting inside from drainage back ups during heavy rains Friday night. National Roads Authority crews worked to alleviate the problem Saturday.


Some tourist resorts on the East End of Grand Cayman, including the Reef Resort and Morritts Tortuga took on water from the storm as well.


Downed power lines, fallen tree limbs and debris scattered about were a common sight on the main island Saturday morning, even in West Bay District which appeared to be the least affected by the storm.

By mid–day things were getting back to normal on Grand Cayman. Grocery stores had opened at 10am and Owen Roberts Airport had regained power and flights were operating.


On Cayman Brac it was an altogether different story.

Mr. Scott said the Brac had experienced maximum sustained winds of 130–140mph with gusts of up to 160mph as the storm tracked further east than had been previously expected before getting to the Cayman Islands.

The eye of the storm passed over Little Cayman at around 5am, a government advisory said. On the Brac, winds started to subside just after 8am, but tropical storm force winds were expected to persist well into the afternoon.

About 200 people are believed to be staying on Little Cayman, including about 25 tourists.

How those staying on the tiny island’s south–side, which was expected to be the worst affected area, was not clear although Mr. Scott said people staying at the Little Cayman hurricane shelter were doing OK.

Red cross officials here in Grand Cayman reported massive damage on the smallest of the three islands.

"At least one house on stilts has fallen off, at least a dozen homes have lost their roofs," Red Cross Disaster Management Manager Hemant Balgobin said. "The roof on an apartment complex caved in. A mother and daughter got trapped in their house when the roof caved in and had to be rescued."

Mr. Balgobin said the earliest disaster relief workers were likely to get to the island was Sunday.

The British ship RFA Waveruler was being sent to the Sister Islands to provide humanitarian assistance on the orders of Governor Stuart Jack.

Mr. Scott pleaded for the island’s residents to be patient and stay put, warning that it could be a couple of days before the all clear is given.

We want to stress that people that are in shelters and people that are in their homes are not to get out on the roads, Mr. Scott said.

The Royal Cayman Islands Police Service will be monitoring that very closely in the next hours and anyone that is out there, other than essential services people, will be dealt with in accordance with the law.

http://www.caycompass.com/cgi-bin/CFPnews.cgi?ID=1035084
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#691 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 08, 2008 5:46 pm

Lets post all the news about the Caymans and Cuba at the thread in the top of forum.Thank you.
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#692 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Nov 08, 2008 5:59 pm

She looks like she is in the rapid weakening phase now that WXman was speaking of...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
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Re:

#693 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 08, 2008 6:04 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:She looks like she is in the rapid weakening phase now that WXman was speaking of...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html


Also looks to be about to make landfall.
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Re: Re:

#694 Postby jinftl » Sat Nov 08, 2008 6:08 pm

As of 2 hours ago, NHC wasn't expecting major weakening since landfall was so close...

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PALOMA IS DETERIORATING...
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA PLANES HAVE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 142 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 124 KT...AND A RISING MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF ABOUT 952 MB. 125 KT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY...
BUT SINCE THE PRESSURE IS NOW COMING UP...THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME DOWN SOON. ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN STRENGTH...HOWEVER...IS
LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL AS THE HURRICANE IS NOT VERY FAR OFF THE
COAST. A RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING SHEAR AND MANY HOURS OVER LAND.

CrazyC83 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:She looks like she is in the rapid weakening phase now that WXman was speaking of...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html


Also looks to be about to make landfall.
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#695 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 08, 2008 6:20 pm

Image
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#696 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 08, 2008 6:23 pm

HURRICANE PALOMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
620 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

AT APPROXIMATELY 620 PM EST...2320 UTC...HIGH-RESOLUTION GOES
SATELLITE DATA AND A RECENT POSITION FIX FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...PLUS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR DATA FROM CUBA...INDICATE THAT MAJOR HURRICANE PALOMA LIKELY
MADE LANDFALL NEAR SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR CUBA AS A STRONG CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 MPH...200 KM/HR.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#697 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 08, 2008 6:30 pm

I think that is a bit generous for landfall intensity. My guess is about 100 kt.
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Hurricane - Discussion (Made Landfall)

#698 Postby Sanibel » Sat Nov 08, 2008 6:31 pm

Same solid band of clouds on the southern horizon here at sunset tonight as last night. Cool and clear overhead here. Hard to tell a hurricane is happening a few hundred miles to the SE.
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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Hurricane - Discussion (Made Landfall)

#699 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 08, 2008 6:31 pm

Santa Cruz del Sur, Cuba. Nov. 9, 1932

Image

3000+ dead.
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#700 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 08, 2008 6:36 pm

76 years later almost to the day, hopefully we won't see a repeat.
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