ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Can't detect forward motion slowdown yet.

[jinftl]

Doesn't that equate to a 10 mph difference between NHC advisory and your guess? Really that big of a difference? Keep in mind the NHC isn't just going by satellite pics...the have much more data at their fingertips...bottom line...CAT 3 landfall in Cuba. Stronger than some expected on here....NHC called it though.

I think that is a bit generous for landfall intensity. My guess is about 100 kt.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON HURRICANE PALOMA WHICH MADE
LANDFALL EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR IN THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SEVENTY
SIX YEARS AGO...A POWERFUL AND DEADLY HURRICANE HIT THE SAME
AREA. THIS WAS THE INFAMOUS 1932 CUBA HURRICANE. IT MADE
LANDFALL IN EASTERN CUBA NEAR SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR LATER IN THE
MORNING OF NOVEMBER 9 AS AT LEAST A CATEGORY 4 ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE KILLING UP TO 3000 PEOPLE MAINLY DUE TO THE
STORM SURGE. THIS MADE IT ONE OF THE DEADLIEST HURRICANE OF THE
20TH CENTURY. CUBAN RADAR PRESENTLY INDICATES THAT EYE-WALL OF
HURRICANE PALOMA IS OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF CAMAGUEY WITH HEAVY
RAIN COVERING MUCH OF THIS PROVINCE. THE CITY OF CAMAGUEY IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT.
PALOMA IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WINDS AND THE INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE FACT THAT
THREE MAJOR HURRICANES HIT CUBA THIS SEASON...GUSTAV...IKE AND
PALOMA...WILL PROBABLY BE A NEW RECORD. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH NEAR 15N72W DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN
ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE.
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC DIGGING INTO THE TROPICS IS HELPING TO INDUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS PANAMA GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS SEEN OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

$$
GR

[JonathanBelles]

NWS Tampa Bay AFD except:

THE PROBLEMS
OCCUR DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
GIVE VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE REMNANTS OF PALOMA...AS
WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. GFS IS BECOMING SIMILAR TO OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF...
DGEX AND THE UKMET...WITH RESPECT TO THE REMNANTS OF PALOMA DRIFTING
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ACROSS FLORIDA THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING TROUGH...AS WELL AS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BEING
LATER DURING SATURDAY. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS SOME MOISTURE COULD MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND CONTINUE
WITH 20 POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD
BE APPROACHING AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

[jinftl]

It's a good thing that interaction with land and shear should kill off Paloma...water temps in the bahamas are still plenty warm to at least support a tropical system.

[dropsonde98]

Could Paloma pull a Gordon (1994)

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19947.asp

[blp]

Has anybody been able to get into the Cuban radar site. I can't get into any of the radar sites it says page cannot be displayed. I was in a few hours ago.

EDIT: I got it working. I guess they changed the URL.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[yzerfan]

HIGH-RESOLUTION GOES SATELLITE DATA AND A RECENT POSITION FIX FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...PLUS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA..

While I remember hearing that Cuba was letting NOAA fly civilian recon in their airspace starting a while back, seems like this is one of the first times I've seen notes that the new Castro government is letting an officially military aircraft this close to their coastline.

[Chacor]

Cuba has always allowed reconnaissance aircraft into its airspace, I believe, whether NOAA or AF.

[Derek Ortt]

the AF has been flying over Cuba for many years

I have heard that it is easier for the AF to be given permission to fly over Cuba

[Blown Away]

Has Paloma's center moved or just about to move off the N coast of Cuba? Seems to be moving faster than predicted.

[RL3AO]

Could Paloma pull a Gordon (1994)

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19947.asp

Maybe as a little swirl, but 100+ mph shear will mean it won't be a tropical system.

[jinftl]

Interesting....for the first time the NHC raises the possibility....maybe the remnants may actually reorg a bit over the 80+ water if shear lessens some....excerpt from 10pm Discussion from NHC...this could get interesting!


ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELSARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAKENED PALOMA MOVING BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS. THE KEY...OF
COURSE...IS HOW STRONG WILL THAT CIRCULATION BE AT DAYS 3-5.
ALTHOUGH THE 200 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WESTERLY AND IN EXCESS
OF 40 KT...THE 300 MB WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 15-20 KT
AND BECOME SOMEWHAT DIFLUENT...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE
CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER AND MAINTAIN PALOMA AS A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS.

PALOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
AND LAND INTERACTION WITH CUBA FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. AFTER
EMERGING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD BE THE MAIN WEAKENING FACTOR. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW BELOW 30,000 FT TO DECREASE TO 15-20 KT...WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND MAINTAIN PALOMA AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS FORECASTING
UNUSUALLY COLD 200 MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -55C...WHICH WOULD ACT
TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY AND SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BEYOND 72 HOURS.

To that end, the NHC has listed in the Wind Probability a 45% chance of the system dissipating in 96 hours....that was 49% at the 10am update...probably means nothing since such a small change.....let's watch the trend

[pojo]

the AF has been flying over Cuba for many years

I have heard that it is easier for the AF to be given permission to fly over Cuba

even though we have clearance from the state department... it is still up to the Cuban Air Traffic Controllers on whether they'll let us into their airspace. It happened this year on several occasions where we had the clearance and had to turn around because the ATC personnel said get out ASAP.

[HURAKAN]

San Cruz del Sur, Cuba, reported 45 minutes of calm according to the Institute of Meteorology of Cuba.

"El huracán Paloma penetró por las inmediaciones de Santa Cruz del Sur, Camaguey, entre las 7 y las 8 de la noche del sábado. En Santa Cruz del Sur se reportó calma durante 45 minutos, la que fue precedida por fuertes vientos huracanados."

Link (Spanish): http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... &TB1=AVISO

[HURAKAN]

That was fast!

[JonathanBelles]

The satellite is Very deceiving. Remember shear is in place. Look at the NHC position to the Satellite, big difference.

[AJC3]

the AF has been flying over Cuba for many years
I have heard that it is easier for the AF to be given permission to fly over Cuba

Even though we have clearance from the state department... it is still up to the Cuban Air Traffic Controllers on whether they'll let us into their airspace. It happened this year on several occasions where we had the clearance and had to turn around because the ATC personnel said get out ASAP.

I don't think it is currently "easier" for the AF to get clearance to overfly Cuba compared to NOAA, although you would have to ask the NOAA aircraft operations manager at MacDill, who I think is Jack Parrish. Either he, Hugh Willoughby, Peter Black or Frank Marks (all of whom I'm sure Derek knows from HRD) would probably know the history of the whole deal, both pre and post Castro, better than myself.

I do know that my recon flight back in 2000 into TD 12 (Pre-Helene) overflew Cuba several times.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/20sep00recon.html

During the first pass southward over central Cuba, east of La Habana, we had to remain at 17Kft until we
were well southeast of the city, then by the time we neared the Isla de las Pinas, we were allowed to descend.

Over the mangrove swamps of western Cuba...





...we were allowed to remain at 1Kft while we searched for the LLC of then TD 12.


Here was our complete flight path.



I pulled this from the text of the trip report...

...We were rather surprised by the nearly continuous stream of communications from the cockpit to air traffic controllers, and to the flight director, which proved especially when their heading and altitude requirements conflicted. Further, operating within multiple, foreign airspaces, sometimes near busy international flight legs, added to the coordination complexities. Finally, the mission was quite intriguing from a geopolitical perspective, given the time spent in Cuban airspace and the island overflights...

[cycloneye]

Paloma is now a Tropical Storm as it has degraded bigtime.Read the 7 AM EST intermidiete advisory at the advisories thread.

[tolakram]

Paloma is still over Cuba, you can see the LLC.