ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[wxman57]

I'd like to know where those 70 mph winds are found. That estimate may be quite a bit generous. There's no convection left and obs across Cuba only 75 miles from the center are only 10 kts. Can't find any obs anywhere near the broad open center, though. Here's a surface plot with satellite overlay. Does this look like it's on the threshold of being a hurricane?

[Blown Away]

Wow, pretty cool how Paloma was just sliced in half in such little time.

[jconsor]

Wxman - I agree that 70 mph is generous.

Satellite estimated winds from Colorado State University show a max of 73 kt with a decent area of 65 kt+ winds, but compared to surface obs over Cuba, the satellite estimates are close to double.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL172008

I'd like to know where those 70 mph winds are found. That estimate may be quite a bit generous. There's no convection left and obs across Cuba only 75 miles from the center are only 10 kts. Can't find any obs anywhere near the broad open center, though. Here's a surface plot with satellite overlay. Does this look like it's on the threshold of being a hurricane?

[AJC3]

Well, after a quick decapitation, low level circulation of "Paloma" is nearly stationary just south of Camaguey. I suspect the global solutions that keep the remnant circulation the farthest south will wind up verifying closest to reality. There should be some of tightening to the local pressure gradient over the keys and straits of Florida over the next few days, along with an increase in passing shower bands from Paloma's remnant outer circulation. Perhaps a slight increase in moisture and wind as far north as southern peninsular Florida, but I suspect any effects will stay to the south of our southern CWA counties (Okeechoee and Martin).

[HURAKAN]

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ding dong the ______ is dead.

[Blown Away]

Seems the models want to keep Paloma hanging on as a TD or minimal TS as long as she does not come back and traverse over Cuba again.

[wxman57]

Well, after a quick decapitation, low level circulation of "Paloma" is nearly stationary just south of Camaguey. I suspect the global solutions that keep the remnant circulation the farthest south will wind up verifying closest to reality. There should be some of tightening to the local pressure gradient over the keys and straits of Florida over the next few days, along with an increase in passing shower bands from Paloma's remnant outer circulation. Perhaps a slight increase in moisture and wind as far north as southern peninsular Florida, but I suspect any effects will stay to the south of our southern CWA counties (Okeechoee and Martin).

Or Paloma may dissipate over Cuba within 24 hours. With such a strong westerly jet across south Florida Paloma's moisture will head east and northeast. And there's not much of any circulation over the water to the northwest.

[wxman57]

Wxman - I agree that 70 mph is generous.

Satellite estimated winds from Colorado State University show a max of 73 kt with a decent area of 65 kt+ winds, but compared to surface obs over Cuba, the satellite estimates are close to double.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL172008

I wonder how they derive those winds? Obs across Cuba are in the 10-15 kt range, including along the north coast. Nowhere close to the values on that satellite estimate. If there are any TS winds remaining then they'd be in the SE quadrant over water. I don't get the NHC 50kt wind radii in all 4 quadrants. Where's the surface evidence of 50kt winds in any quadrant? There's an ob not far from the center reporting 5-10 kts. Paloma looks like a remnant low, not a 50kt TS.

Ah, I found it (below). They estimate 700mb winds and convert them to the surface using standard reduction. But without any convection, such a wind reduction is invalid. The winds at the surface won't be representative of winds 10,000 feet up, particularly in a highly-sheared system.

From the web site:

Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis

This product combines information from five data sources to create a mid-level (near 700 hPa) wind analysis using a variational approach described in Knaff and DeMaria (2006). The resulting mid-level winds are then adjusted to the surface applying a very simple single column approach. Over the ocean an adjustment factor is applied, which is a function of radius from the center ranging from 0.9 to 0.7, and the winds are turned 20 degrees toward low pressure. Over land, the oceanic winds are reduced by an additional 20% and turned an additional 20 degrees toward low pressure.

[Sanibel]

Interesting decoupling. It hit Santa Cruz and stopped. Looks like it is headed back towards the Caribbean.


From what I'm seeing the 1932 storm was an Atlantic storm with a good head start and different atmosphere going for it. Probably not comparable at Santa Cruz because the 1932 storm had no HIGH stalling it and went right through.

[fci]

It's like Paloma literally ran into a buzzsaw.
Doesn't know what hit her.
"Never saw the truck that hit me!?!"

[HURAKAN]

FROM PALOMA TO PAGONE.

[wxman57]

Interesting decoupling. It hit Santa Cruz and stopped. Looks like it is headed back towards the Caribbean.


From what I'm seeing the 1932 storm was an Atlantic storm with a good head start and different atmosphere going for it. Probably not comparable at Santa Cruz because the 1932 storm had no HIGH stalling it and went right through.

Yeah, I can't detect any movement except maybe a SW drift. Doesn't look like it'll follow the 15Z NHC track north of Cuba. Bones is getting up from his chair and walking over to the microphone. He says there's no way Paloma is still a TS with no convection and no surface wind obs over 15 kts.

Here's a 15Z plot. Center is near the south coast of Cuba. Can anyone find the 50kt winds? Or, to put it another way, if this was being carried as a TD, do you see any evidence it should be upgraded to a 50kt TS? Or even a TD?

[wxman57]

It sure got quiet in here. Hey! I changed my mind! Paloma will move off the north coast of Cuba, become a hurricane again, and hit south Florida!

Echo, echo, echo, echo....

[Derek Ortt]

It sure got quiet in here. Hey! I changed my mind! Paloma will move off the north coast of Cuba, become a hurricane again, and hit south Florida!

Echo, echo, echo, echo....

you're teasing the kids just a bit too much, lol

Next storm please!

[HURAKAN]

A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE IN 24 HRS!

[fci]

It sure got quiet in here. Hey! I changed my mind! Paloma will move off the north coast of Cuba, become a hurricane again, and hit south Florida!

Echo, echo, echo, echo....

The sad thing is that there are w---casters who will get all excited and think you are telling the truth!

[Sanibel]

If it moves back over water it will be interesting to see what warm SST's can do for a naked spiral under shear.

[Brent]

WOW, she died in a hurry. Poor Paloma.

[HURAKAN]

WOW, she died in a hurry. Poor Paloma.

Paloma knew her time on this Earth was short but she knew exactly how to use it, unfortunately.