ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Best Track 18z:

AL, 17, 2008110918, , BEST, 0, 211N, 780W, 35, 1002, TS

35 knots

[hurricanefloyd5]

Looks like Palmoa is moving northward very very slowly or is she moving nw-nnwward??????????

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 092035
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

...PALOMA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER CUBA...

Where is bones?

[HurricaneRobert]

If it gets retired, hopefully they don't choose another grandma name.

[Brent]

*Paging Bones*

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Too early to call on Bones.



This is just like what Olga did last year:

The remnant low continued westward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. By 15 December, the non-convective low moved northwestward and northward around the western periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge. Later that day and early on 16 December, the remnants of Olga accelerated northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico ahead of an approaching cold front, producing somewhat organized thunderstorm activity. Satellite imagery and radar data from Tampa, Florida suggested that a small circulation crossed the west-central coast of Florida just north of Tampa around 1000 UTC 16 December. During that time, Olga’s remnants interacted with an intense squall line that stretched across north central Florida. While post-analysis does not indicate that redevelopment into a tropical cyclone occurred, the remnants of Olga in conjunction with the cold front and pre-frontal squall line produced sustained winds of tropical storm force with gusts to hurricane force in Clearwater Beach, Florida. Within two hours of Olga’s remnants reaching the west central coast of Florida, the remnants were absorbed by the cold front.

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2007atlan.shtml

Remember folks last year, when Olga's remnant circulation
reemerged and moved into the gulf of mexico, it combined with a
strong cold front and baroclinically deepened to a 1002 mb low
that brought Hurricane Force Winds to Clearwater Beach in the
Tampa Bay Area Florida. I'm not saying Paloma will do this-
but if it tracks into the NW caribbean, EVEN as just a REMNANT LOW,
next week's strong cold front illustrated by the GFS pulls up moisture
and has significant instability. Temperature highs are 80-85 ahead of the
Front by late week, and behind it, much colder. This baroclinic
enhancement may pull in the remnants of Paloma and allow it to deepen
late week baroclinically as the cold front moves across florida.

And also, this is not a wish-wish-cast. Last years storm damaged some furniture and created
quite a backyard mess that took me 5 days of hard labor to clean up.

[wxman57]

Bones can't take it any more. He says "if Paloma is still a depression, then he's a first-year intern!"

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Bones can't take it any more. He says "if Paloma is still a depression, then he's a first-year intern!"

What is the remnant circulation doing, is it moving west towards the GOM/caribbean? If so could
it baroclinically deepen with the late week cold front just like olga's remnants did last year before
slamming my area with 80 mph winds near clearwater beach?
I know it would be a baroclinic storm, not a tropical storm, but just wondering.

[HURAKAN]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

[jinftl]

Now what did southeast florida do to offend the NOGAPS....and before anyone jumps on this post....i realize we are talking right now about a remnant low at most slightly weaker than turning on all of the fans in the fan aisle at the local home depot all at once.

But seriously, what Paloma does remind us of that is jumping on models too quickly...esp before a system even forms....can be hasty. By now, what was left of Paloma was supposed to be racing into the north atlantic being chased by the trough and sharp front that was going to clear florida. Front fizzled long before clearing florida and paloma is stuck in cuba.

[wxman57]

What is the remnant circulation doing, is it moving west towards the GOM/caribbean? If so could
it baroclinically deepen with the late week cold front just like olga's remnants did last year before
slamming my area with 80 mph winds near clearwater beach?
I know it would be a baroclinic storm, not a tropical storm, but just wondering.

It appears to be dissipating. It'll just be slammed with high shear if it goes anywhere but south for the next week (or more). There is 30+ knots of shear forecast across the Gulf and off the east coast (and everywhere north of 20N latitude for the next week. Not much chance of redevelopment unless it goes back to the SW Caribbean.

[jinftl]

Looking at these latest model runs...if the remnants got back in the area of the sw caribbean around the cayman islands, could redevelopment be a possibility?

What is the remnant circulation doing, is it moving west towards the GOM/caribbean? If so could
it baroclinically deepen with the late week cold front just like olga's remnants did last year before
slamming my area with 80 mph winds near clearwater beach?
I know it would be a baroclinic storm, not a tropical storm, but just wondering.

It appears to be dissipating. It'll just be slammed with high shear if it goes anywhere but south for the next week (or more). There is 30+ knots of shear forecast across the Gulf and off the east coast (and everywhere north of 20N latitude for the next week. Not much chance of redevelopment unless it goes back to the SW Caribbean.

[jconsor]

Several models (ECMWF, GEM, NOGAPS) are now suggesting that vorticity and moisture from the remnants of Paloma will energize a weak non-tropical low that will ride up the east coast Thu-Fri and bring rain to the mid-Atlantic and New England coast. The GFS and UKMET have an inverted trough forming along the southeast U.S. coast with a bulge in the isobars traveling up the east coast, but no real sfc low.

Here is a snippet from the NWS Upton, NY discussion:

LATEST GFS/ECMWF ALSO INDICATE A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ALONG A COASTAL FRONT OFF THE CAROLINAS AND RIDING NE TOWARD THE AREA...THIS LOW COULD PICK UP REMNANT MOISTURE FROM DYING TS PALOMA AND/OR MOISTURE FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD MAKE FOR A WETTER END OF THE WEEK IF SLOWER ECMWF TIMING IS CORRECT.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What is the remnant circulation doing, is it moving west towards the GOM/caribbean? If so could
it baroclinically deepen with the late week cold front just like olga's remnants did last year before
slamming my area with 80 mph winds near clearwater beach?
I know it would be a baroclinic storm, not a tropical storm, but just wondering.

It appears to be dissipating. It'll just be slammed with high shear if it goes anywhere but south for the next week (or more). There is 30+ knots of shear forecast across the Gulf and off the east coast (and everywhere north of 20N latitude for the next week. Not much chance of redevelopment unless it goes back to the SW Caribbean.

thanks!

[MGC]

Just as quickly as Paloma spun up it has spun down. The shear just scalped the mid circulation. Should slowly wither on the vine.....MGC

[Ptarmigan]

Paloma was a Category 4 hurricane just yesterday and now it is a mere tropical depression. Amazing all I can say.

[Sanibel]

On the move NNW now.

[HURAKAN]

Best Track 0z:

AL, 17, 2008111000, , BEST, 0, 217N, 780W, 25, 1007, TD

[Ad Novoxium]

If it gets retired, hopefully they don't choose another grandma name.

We of the World Meteorological Organization, in respect for the damage caused in Cuba by Hurricane Paloma, hereby state that the name shall be retired and replaced with Phyllis.

And you know something...I wouldn't doubt that that'd be the name they'd use.

If you ask me, Pamela would be a nice name, but sounds too similar. Others? Polly, Pearl, Pam...whichever. Honestly, Pamela is largely my choice, but anything as long as it's not Phyllis.