Joe B Discussion This Morning.

[KatDaddy]

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Here... by DESTRUCTION5 Pretty vauge on his ideas today...I think w/out a doubt FL will be wet...


Tropics: The tropical wave near 73 west must be watched. Just as one should not go berserk with every convective burst, one can not write something off until convection is gone for at least 24 hours. The system will get into the area in the large scale favorable for development tomorrow.

So what is my fear here? It survives through tomorrow and Friday is in the southeast gulf. The trof pulls out with a split, the ridge builds north of it in the steering levels and over it in the outflow levels. The comeback starts later tomorrow and Friday and then we are looking at a system wandering west northwest or northwest in the gulf. It is still not by Hispaniola yet, so I have to wait to see what this looks like tomorrow. Shear, Hispaniola, the month, and the fact we are now in a positive NAO should argue against it, but arguing for it is the overall development pulse and the actual overall pattern in those areas. Can it make it,, that is the first question and I hope to have an answer tomorrow.

Interestingly enough, south of the Cape Verdes is a large rotating area of clouds and that is probably going to be in the same general area next week at this time as this one, with a similar pattern. Keep running this pattern through the hurricane season and what is in my opinion a bold landfall intensity forecast that I have out, turns out to be underdone. In any case that gets handled August 8th again.

Ciao for now. *******

[vbhoutex]

He is, without calling it a fear, expressing my concern for the rest of the season. Thus my higher than normal numbers for the season, which may in fact be low now too. We are not even into the beginninig of the peak of the season and we are seeing CV style systems on a continuous "Wavy train". One or more of these is bound to run into the right conditions and pop into an intense Hurricane, and I am talking before the peak. The pattern continually, at least for now, is bringing everything further S and W than usual arguing, as he says, for more landfalls in the GOM, and FL areas or for that matter more landfalls than normal. Not a pretty scenario IMO, but one that will definitely keep us on our toes through November!!

[Steve]

He also noted that the only change he may address in the 8/8 update is increasing the intensity forecast for the NE US & Canadian coasts.

Steve

[cycloneye]

Yes David the pattern that we haved seen this season has been for low latitud systems moving from africa but the only fishes so far haved been Ana which formed in the western atlantic and Danny which formed in the central atlantic but the majority of the waves haved been strong comming out of africa in june and july and that concerns me here where I am in Puerto Rico when the peak of the season comes :o .And we are still in july. :o

[wow]

If you watch his videos, you know he's been calling a western shift of the mean trough/ridge position over the next week or so. He also does the daily laugh of showing how the GFS ensembles constantly show a trough positioned off the east coast by day 15, where is actually verifies being positioned further west near the coast. Taking into account the westward movement of the Super Typhoon into China and teleconnecting that to a SE ridge further west and a mean trough eventually setting up over the midwest and eastern plains, tropical development at that time may be something to really watch, esp. for the east coast.

Tonights 18z GFS shows a trough tilted back into the lakes and an Atlantic super ridge extending all the way up into Greenland. Comparing this to this morning's 06z run valid day 15, you can see the model recognizing that this trough is going to be further west.

18z - 360hr


06z - 384hr
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