ATL Invest 95L: Computer Models

[artist]

Can't believe I am the first with this one!

[Sanibel]

Should be shear-bait like Paloma.


It's interesting to see these late features pop up in places where they would have been real trouble just 2 months ago.

[HURAKAN]

825
WHXX01 KWBC 131409
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1409 UTC THU NOV 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952008) 20081113 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081113 1200 081114 0000 081114 1200 081115 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.6N 62.3W 21.3N 65.1W 22.1N 68.3W 23.4N 71.5W
BAMD 20.6N 62.3W 20.9N 64.2W 21.0N 66.4W 21.2N 68.7W
BAMM 20.6N 62.3W 21.0N 64.9W 21.2N 67.9W 21.8N 71.1W
LBAR 20.6N 62.3W 21.2N 63.9W 21.8N 66.1W 22.6N 68.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081115 1200 081116 1200 081117 1200 081118 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.3N 73.9W 32.5N 72.0W 40.0N 60.5W 45.5N 56.2W
BAMD 21.8N 71.1W 25.3N 73.0W 30.6N 60.9W 26.0N 53.2W
BAMM 23.0N 73.9W 29.4N 72.5W 38.2N 58.7W 42.0N 54.7W
LBAR 23.7N 71.2W 28.4N 70.9W 30.4N 61.0W 27.0N 55.4W
SHIP 37KTS 36KTS 33KTS 34KTS
DSHP 37KTS 36KTS 33KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.6N LONCUR = 62.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 19.9N LONM12 = 60.5W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 19.0N LONM24 = 58.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[gatorcane]

Should be shear-bait like Paloma.


It's interesting to see these late features pop up in places where they would have been real trouble just 2 months ago.

GFS vertical shear forecast is not looking so bad in this part of the Atlantic until the next big trough arrives this weekend. I'm guessing that is why it made it to invest status although I give it a low probability of ever developing. Even if it does its not coming close to the U.S and is a likely fish candidate.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

For example here is 72 hours from now prior to trough arrival:


120 hours after trough passes:

[gatorcane]

The 12Z HWRF brings it into the Central Bahamas as a weak system before recurving, farther west than the BAMS and LGEM

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 131757
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1757 UTC THU NOV 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952008) 20081113 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081113 1800 081114 0600 081114 1800 081115 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.1N 63.2W 21.7N 66.3W 22.6N 69.8W 23.9N 73.0W
BAMD 21.1N 63.2W 21.1N 65.4W 21.0N 67.9W 21.1N 70.6W
BAMM 21.1N 63.2W 21.2N 66.1W 21.3N 69.5W 22.0N 73.0W
LBAR 21.1N 63.2W 21.3N 65.1W 21.7N 67.7W 22.2N 70.7W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081115 1800 081116 1800 081117 1800 081118 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.2N 75.1W 34.0N 70.4W 39.8N 58.1W 45.6N 54.3W
BAMD 21.9N 73.0W 26.6N 72.1W 31.0N 60.0W 27.4N 49.5W
BAMM 23.8N 75.4W 31.2N 70.8W 37.1N 55.6W 37.4N 50.9W
LBAR 23.9N 73.2W 28.8N 71.3W 28.6N 61.4W 28.3N 56.9W
SHIP 36KTS 36KTS 31KTS 26KTS
DSHP 36KTS 36KTS 31KTS 26KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.1N LONCUR = 63.2W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 20.3N LONM12 = 61.4W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 19.5N LONM24 = 59.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC sends a weak system into Haiti, will Haiti ever get a break?

[RL3AO]

Woah. Look at that XTRP model going for Florida






Its a joke people

[HurricaneBelle]

12Z CMC sends a weak system into Haiti, will Haiti ever get a break?

Well, they were spared Paloma.

[artist]

let's hope the timing is right for everything if this indeed develops into something to keep it from hitting the Bahamas, Haiti, or the US. Remember if it hits the Bahamas that is not a fish.

[cycloneye]

Remember if it hits the Bahamas that is not a fish

Or Bermuda,if it develops at all. I am going to give it a 0.5% chance to develop,less than 57

[gatorcane]

The NAM is more gunhoe on the 18Z run developing a tropical low heading into the Bahamas. Note giant trough to the NW..

[wxman57]

Remember if it hits the Bahamas that is not a fish

Or Bermuda,if it develops at all. I am going to give it a 0.5% chance to develop,less than 57

I was being generous.

[gatorcane]

NAM recurves it over the Bahamas but as a weak low