ATL Invest 95L: Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like lunch for the shear monster...

[Sanibel]

GHCC always makes the storm look deeper than it is:

[HURAKAN]

Not much enthusiasm by the NHC.

[HURAKAN]

Looks interesting but the shear future is grim.

[gatorcane]

I don't see invest 95L on NAVY NRL:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[HURAKAN]

They didn't put 94L up either.

[rockyman]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[gatorcane]

Season not over yet: code orange

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131741
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST THU NOV 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[CrazyC83]

This is not ex-Paloma?

[gatorcane]

This is not ex-Paloma?

nope, ex-Paloma is in the Eastern GOM, see swirl in image below:

[cycloneye]

Best Track at 18:00 UTC:

AL, 95, 2008111318, , BEST, 0, 211N, 632W, 25, 1012, DB

[gatorcane]

It wouldn't surprise me if we see 95L head WSW for a day or so. Look at the 500MB ridge that the GFS is forecasting for the next couple of days. The orientation is WSW to ENE.....

[cycloneye]

13/1745 UTC 20.6N 64.3W TOO WEAK 95L -- Atlantic

[Derek Ortt]

I fail to see why this should be an invest at the present time

[GCANE]

I fail to see why this should be an invest at the present time

A warm-core and closed LLC helps.

[artist]

according to the models this could be a close call for alot of people. Let's hope this remains nothing more than an invest and the shear eats it up.

[wxman57]

Bones had declared the season to be over and he says he's not concerned about this weak surface reflection of an upper low. Wind shear is only going to increase as it tracks toward the Bahamas. By Sunday, a quite strong cold front will sweep off the SE U.S. coast and carry what's left of 95L NE and out to sea. I just don't see it having a >20% chance of developing. Maybe closer to 1-2%.

[artist]

Bones had declared the season to be over and he says he's not concerned about this weak surface reflection of an upper low. Wind shear is only going to increase as it tracks toward the Bahamas. By Sunday, a quite strong cold front will sweep off the SE U.S. coast and carry what's left of 95L NE and out to sea. I just don't see it having a >20% chance of developing. Maybe closer to 1-2%.

that's what I like to hear!

[gatorcane]

Bones had declared the season to be over and he says he's not concerned about this weak surface reflection of an upper low. Wind shear is only going to increase as it tracks toward the Bahamas. By Sunday, a quite strong cold front will sweep off the SE U.S. coast and carry what's left of 95L NE and out to sea. I just don't see it having a >20% chance of developing. Maybe closer to 1-2%.

The UKMET and ECMWF are not enthusiastic so I am not either -- chances are it just stays weak, brings some rains/showers to the Bahamas and gets sucked up in the massive trough that will bring cooler temperatures to all of Florida next week -- should stay well east of Florida.