NIO: KHAI MUK - DEEP DEPRESSION - Discussion

[badkhan]

Currently positioned just off the coast of Thailand.

RSMC has taken a notice of it.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK



DEMS-RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI 09-11-2008



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC(.)





CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL. (.)

RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa PASSES THROUGH LATITUDE 12.00 NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.)

[Chacor]

A lot of it is still in the WPac/Gulf of Thailand.

[badkhan]

ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/091800Z-101800ZNOV2008//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.4N 97.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY ALONG WITH AN 091120Z WINDSAT 37GHZ
PASS SHOW ENHANCED CONVECTION FORMING NEAR AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN IN A 091145Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE
DISTURBANCE LIES NEAR THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, IN AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THE LLCC IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE OVER WATER AND BEGINNING TO
CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

[HURAKAN]

Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtsatfloat2.html

Becoming better organized.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 89.6E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 87.5E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST OF MADRAS,
INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CON-
VECTION, THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY CONFINED TO THE THE PERIPHERIES OF THE
CIRCULATION, DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS LLCC IS ALSO EVIDENT IN A
121105Z SSMI IMAGE. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES NEAR AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EST-
IMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

BOB06.

BOB 06/2008/02 Dated: 14 November, 2008




Sub: Depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal



Latest satellite imageries and observations from coastal stations, ships and buoys indicate that the depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestward and lay centred at 2330 hours IST of 13th November 2008 near lat. 12.00 N and Long. 85.00 E over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal about 550 km east-southeast of Chennai and about 650 km southeast of Machilipatnam. The system is likely to intensify further and move in west-northwesterly direction towards north Tamilnadu-south Andhra Pradesh coasts.



Under its influence, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over coastal areas of north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hours commencing from today afternoon.



Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph are likely along and off north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 48 hours commencing from today afternoon. Sea condition is rough to very rough along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

[wyq614]

FNMOC upgraded it to 05B

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

WTIO31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131521Z NOV 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 12.9N 84.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 84.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 13.8N 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 14.5N 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.2N 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.8N 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 84.5E. ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY AND A
132330Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PASS DEPICT IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITH STRONG BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY, AND THE SYSTEM
NOW APPEARS TO BE LOCATED SLIGHTLY WEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WHICH IS SUSTAINING DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN AIDED
BY DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS 05B IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS IN A GENERALLY
WESTWARD DIRECTION, ULTIMATELY MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS
BY PGTW AND KNES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 131521Z NOV 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21
PGTW 131530 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z.
//

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[badkhan]

BOB 06/2008/05 Dated: 14 November, 2008




Sub: Deep Depression over southwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal.



The deep depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved further northwards and lay centred at 1130 hours IST of today, the 14th November 2008 over southwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal near lat. 13.00 N and Long. 85.00 E, about 500 km east of Chennai and about 550 km southeast of Machilipatnam. The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move in northwesterly direction towards Andhra Pradesh coast.



Under its influence, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining areas of north Tamilnadu during next 48 hours.



Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph are likely along and off north Tamilnadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 48 hours commencing from today evening. Sea condition will be very rough to high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

It has been upgraded to a Deep Depression. I think we'll have Khai-Muk with us in a few hours.

[P.K.]

Sorry but IE is doing weird things with copying text here. It says T2.0 here but their latest sat image has T2.5 on it.

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 14-11-2008


Tropical weather outlook for north Indian ocean (The bay of Bengal and Arabian sea) valid for next 24 hours issued at 0600 utc OF 14 NOVEMBER, 2008 based on 0300 UTC of 14 NOVEMBER, 2008 (.)


YESTERDAY’S depression OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY oF bENGAL concentrated into a DEEP DEPRESSION AND lay centred at 0300 utc of today, 14TH nOVEMBER 2008 OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL near lat. 12.50 n and long. 85.00 e about 520 km east-southeast of CHENNAI, ABOUT 600 km southEAST of MACHILIPATNAM.

SATELLITE IMAGeRY INDICATES ORGANIsED convection and curved band pattern in associated with the system. the intensity of the system is t2.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE to very intense CURVED CONVECTION CLOUD BAND OVER bay of bengal between lat. 11.00 n to 17.00 n and between long. 80.50 e to 87.50 e.

sustained maximum winds speed is estimated to be about 30 knots. the state of the sea is VERY rough TO HIGH around the system centre. the estimated CENTRAL pressure is about 1002 hpa. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS BETWEEN -60 TO -700 C. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS 05 TO 15 KnoTS. SHEAR TENDENCY IS -5 TO -10 KnoTS TO NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM LIES CLOSE TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 160N. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OVER THE REGION IS ABOUT 28 TO 290 C.

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM AND MOVE IN NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST.

[badkhan]

It is predicted to land in approximately the same area where last year TC03B (which later became Yemyin in Arabian sea) made its first landfall.

[P.K.]

Upgraded to Cyclonic Storm Khai Muk earlier.

BOB 06/2008/07 Dated: 14 November 2008

Time of issue: 2130 hours IST

Sub: Cyclone warning for coastal Andhra Pradesh.

The deep depression over southwest and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards, intensified into a cyclonic storm, KHAI MUK and lay centred at 1730 hours IST of today, the 14th November 2008 over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near lat. 14.00 N and Long. 84.00 E, about 400 km southeast of Machilipatnam and about 400 km east-northeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Kakinada, near Machilipatnam by tomorrow, the 15th November forenoon.

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (³ 25 cm) is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hours.

Gale winds speed reaching 65-85 kmph gusting upto 95 kmph are likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast between Ongole and Vishakhapatnam during next 24 hours causing damage to thatched huts, uprooting of trees, breaking of tree branches, causing minor damage to power and communication lines. Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting upto 65 kmph also likely along and off remaining parts of Andhra Pradesh coast. Sea condition will be very rough to high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast.

Storm surge 1-2 meter above the astronomical tide is likely at the time of landfall over coastal areas of Prakasham, Guntur, Krishna, west and east Godavari districts and Yanam.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off Andhra Pradesh coast.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather:

[HURAKAN]

Very intense convection.