ATL Invest 95L: Discussion

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Still code orange.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 132349
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST THU NOV 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 250 MILES
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Blown Away]

I know it's not going to happen, but the timing and location are very similiar to hurricane Kate of 1985. Interesting that 1985 was used as an analog year for 2008.

[gatorcane]

I know it's not going to happen, but the timing and location are very similiar to hurricane Kate of 1985. Interesting that 1985 was used as an analog year for 2008.

Here is the path of Kate in 1985. I just checked the 18Z guidance and it appears to be even less bullish on development, could be back to code yellow by the next update. In addition this would recurve alot further east than Kate, probably east of the Bahamas or over the eastern Bahamas (and not be near as strong of course). The trough coming down is another big one.

[wxman57]

I really cannot begin to fathom what the NHC sees that makes them think this has a >20% chance of developing. Wind shear is too strong and it's only going to increase over the weekend.

[Blown Away]

Wxman57,
Why does the NRL still show 95L as an active invest but they don't update the model runs. I guess 95L is on its way to being deactivated?

[wxman57]

Wxman57,
Why does the NRL still show 95L as an active invest but they don't update the model runs. I guess 95L is on its way to being deactivated?

They appear to be VERY slow in updating the web page. Paloma was only removed 5-6 days after it died. This system never was alive, and it's quite dead today.

[bvigal]

BEGIN
NHC
invest_DEACTIVATE_al952008.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200811141359
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

Officially dead.