WPAC - NOUL - TROPICAL STORM: Discussion

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 129.9E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST OF DAVAO,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERIES DEPICT
REDUCED AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING AS THE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES MINDANAO. A 14/0053Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. 14/0400Z SLP AT DAVAO WAS 1008
MB AND WINDS WERE 040/02 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A TUTT
CELL TO THE EAST PROVIDING GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALTHOUGH THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO
A LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN THE SULU SEA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather:

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9N
120.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.6N 120.5E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BRUNEI. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 150500Z SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM SANDAKAN, MALAYSIA, LOCATED
LESS THAN 2 DEGREES TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC, REPORTS
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (SLP) AT 1007 MB WITH ONE-DEGREE PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. FURTHER INTERROGATION OF REPORTING
STATIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION INDICATES SLPS BETWEEN 1006 AND
1008 MB. CURRENT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE, BUT THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM A
NARROW EXTENSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND UNDER AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BECAUSE OF SUSTAINED DEEP
CONVECTION, YET MARGINAL LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AND DECLINING UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIF-
ICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

15/1430 UTC 9.4N 117.5E T2.0/2.0 96W -- West Pacific

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/152021Z NOV 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 10.1N 115.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 115.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 10.4N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 10.6N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 10.6N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 10.5N 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 10.0N 100.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 10.1N 95.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 10.7N 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 115.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 152021Z NOV 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 152030). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z
AND 170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 25W (HAISHEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[Chacor]

TD 26W from JTWC:



Also TD from JMA:

WTPQ21 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 09.9N 115.3E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 10.0N 112.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[HURAKAN]

[HurricaneBill]

The forecasted path reminds me of Typhoon Linda in 1997.



Hopefully, this won't be a repeat of Linda.

[Chacor]

21st TS of the season:

WTPQ21 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0821 NOUL (0821) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 10.4N 114.5E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 10.1N 111.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 180600UTC 10.1N 107.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 190600UTC 09.5N 102.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Chacor]

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0821 NOUL (0821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 10.6N 113.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 10.5N 110.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 181200UTC 10.0N 105.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 191200UTC 10.0N 101.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

16/1457 UTC 11.0N 113.2E T3.0/3.0 NOUL -- West Pacific

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (NOUL) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 11.1N 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 11.3N 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 11.2N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 10.8N 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 10.4N 100.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 10.8N 93.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 12.0N 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 13.6N 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 111.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z,
170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather:

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0821 NOUL (0821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 11.0N 112.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 11.0N 108.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 181800UTC 10.6N 104.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 191800UTC 10.5N 100.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0821 NOUL (0821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 11.6N 111.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 11.8N 108.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 190000UTC 11.6N 105.5E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

JMA doesn't expect it to make it to the Gulf of Thailand as a TS now.

[HURAKAN]

[masaji79]

What is the protocol for TC names that cross over in this area. If TS Noul regenerates in the Bay of Bengal will the name be kept or will it be named Nisha the next on the Indian list?