WPAC: 0820 (25W) TS HAISHEN - Discussion
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wyq614
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WPAC: 0820 (25W) TS HAISHEN - Discussion
Last edited by wyq614 on Sat Nov 15, 2008 4:45 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r2_floater
15/0830 UTC 24.5N 147.8E T2.0/2.0 97W -- West Pacific
15/0830 UTC 24.5N 147.8E T2.0/2.0 97W -- West Pacific
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TCFA:
WTPN21 PGTW 151630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.5N 148.0E TO 28.7N 154.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 151200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 24.7N 148.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 24.7N 148.5E, APPROXIMATELY
390 NM EAST OF IWO TO, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 150906Z QUIKSCAT PASS. RECENT AMSU-
BASED TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT THIS CIRCULATION,
PREVIOUSLY SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE, HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A FULLY
WARM CORE, TROPICAL CIRCULATION. THE LLCC IS PROGRESSING RAPIDLY
POLEWARD INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE BARO-
CLINIC BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 161630Z.//
JMA:
WTPQ20 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 25.2N 149.0E POOR
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 161500UTC 28.9N 151.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
WTPN21 PGTW 151630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.5N 148.0E TO 28.7N 154.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 151200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 24.7N 148.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 24.7N 148.5E, APPROXIMATELY
390 NM EAST OF IWO TO, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 150906Z QUIKSCAT PASS. RECENT AMSU-
BASED TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT THIS CIRCULATION,
PREVIOUSLY SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE, HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A FULLY
WARM CORE, TROPICAL CIRCULATION. THE LLCC IS PROGRESSING RAPIDLY
POLEWARD INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE BARO-
CLINIC BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 161630Z.//
JMA:
WTPQ20 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 25.2N 149.0E POOR
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 161500UTC 28.9N 151.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (97W JTWC: TCFA Issued)
20th TS of the year has formed.
WTPQ20 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0820 HAISHEN (0820) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 25.5N 149.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 29.1N 152.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 171800UTC 32.0N 158.0E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
WTPQ20 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0820 HAISHEN (0820) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 25.5N 149.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 29.1N 152.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 171800UTC 32.0N 158.0E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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WTPQ20 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0820 HAISHEN (0820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 26.3N 150.4E FAIR
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 30.9N 154.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 180000UTC 39.1N 165.3E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0820 HAISHEN (0820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 26.3N 150.4E FAIR
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 30.9N 154.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 180000UTC 39.1N 165.3E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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