My Quick Winter 2008-09 Thoughts

[donsutherland1]

Winter 2008-09 looks to be warmer than normal across the western half of the United States, with winter temperatures averaging generally 1.0° to 2.0° above normal in that region. On account of a negative PDO, the Pacific Northwest will likely see readings average within 0.5° of normal normal. Right along the East coast and into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region, readings will likely average 1.0° below normal to near normal.

One Kocin-Uccellini snowstorm is possible, as somewhat better than half the winters I examined had such a storm.

Temperature Snapshot:
• Northeast: Somewhat cooler than normal to near normal
• Mid-Atlantic: Somewhat cooler than normal to near normal
• Southeast: Somewhat cooler than normal to near normal
• Ohio Valley: Somewhat cooler than normal
• Northern Plains: Somewhat warmer than normal
• Central Plains: Somewhat warmer than normal
• Southern Plains: Somewhat warmer than normal
• Pacific Northwest: Near normal
• California/Southwest: Somewhat warmer than normal

Precipitation Snapshot:
• Northeast: Somewhat below normal to near normal
• Mid-Atlantic: Somewhat below normal to near normal
• Southeast: Below normal
• Ohio Valley: Near normal
• Northern Plains: Near normal
• Central Plains: Near normal
• Southern Plains: Below normal to near normal
• Pacific Northwest: Above normal
• California/Southwest: Near normal

Snowfall Estimates for Select Cities:
Baltimore: 20”-30”
Boston: 45”-55”
Burlington: 80”-90”
Chicago: 40”-50”
Detroit: 40”-50”
New York City: 20”-30”
Philadelphia: 20”-30”
Pittsburgh: 40”-50”
Providence: 30”-40”
Richmond: 10”-15”
St. Louis: 15”-25”
Washington, DC: DCA: 15”-25”; IAD: 20”-30”

ANALYSIS:

NOTE: As I had to replace my hard drive and lost a significant part of the assessment I had put together for my winter thoughts, I have reconstructed my general ideas but have limited the details in the analysis.

I regret the situation and the delay (as I had wanted to post it around mid- to late-October.

ENSO Forecast:
The CFS is suggesting that Winter 2008-09 could feature a weak to moderate La Niña event. However, the ECMWF is suggesting neutral conditions to weak La Niña conditions. Given the recent cooling of anomalies in the four ENSO regions, I suspect a weak La Niña is probably a reasonable scenario.

Models:
The CFS is now indicating a generally cooler than normal winter across much of the East and warmer than normal in the West. The CFS has some support from the ECMWF’s latest seasonal forecast. Given the SSTAs, I’m not as confident that the Desert Southwest will prove quite as warm as the ECMWF is suggesting.

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies:
Both the latest December-February SSTA forecasts from the CFS and IRI highlight the following key anomalies:

• Cool SSTAs off the West Coast
• Near normal readings off the Atlantic Coast but somewhat cooler than normal off Florida and the Southeast Coast
• General warmer than normal SSTAs in the Bay of Baffin/Davis Straits area

Such a situation has generally featured a winter with cooler than normal to near normal conditions in the East with warmer readings focused on the Southern and Central Plains.

[Stephanie]

That's a lot of snow for Philadelphia. We're due for some decent snowfalls, but around here it could just take one or two to get us over the 20" mark and then nothing for the rest of the season.