2008 Cyclones Retirement

[Derek Ortt]

Dolly did nothing to Guatemala. The Wikipedia article is dead wrong.

NHC stated only 1 death form Dolly. The deaths in Guatemala were from rains totally unrelated to Dolly

[jinftl]

This may give some perspective on the name retirememt criteria...

1996's Hurricane Bertha: A Major Category 3 Hurricane that crossed the Leeward Islands and passed near Puerto Rico, later making landfall in North Carolina as a Category 2 storm, causing $270 million in damage to the United States and its possessions and many indirect deaths.

Bertha was not retired in '96.

[jinftl]

I would have thought that based on the 'intimidating factor' of certain names, Ike wouldn't have had to fight the 'just a cat 2' saga as much as he did...i mean, we are talking about a name that immediately is associated with one of the most infamous and publicized wife beater's of all time...ike turner.

The point of naming storms is not really to instill fear...the storm's strength should be able to do that...plus it is not like we name blizzards, tornadoes, or even earthquakes.

Dolly has as much chance of being retired as Notre Dame does of winning the national championship this season

Well, the latter's definitely not going to happen, however there's always the outside chance that Guatemala could request retirement of Dolly. However, next year will be the current list's thirtieth year of existence, isn't it wearing out its welcome?

Anyway - possible replacement names for those Atlantic names which may be retired:
Replace Dolly by Dita/Drusilla (something mean-sounding)/Damienne/Dharla
Replace Gustav by Geraldo/Ghislain/Giovanni/Guillaume
Replace Hanna by Heidi/Hestia/Honora/Hildegarde (again to sound intimidating)
Replace Ike by Ichabod (very intimidating)/Ira/Icarus/Illbert (hah, best fourth "I" option I could think of)
Replace Omar by Odilo (i.e. Globocnik)/Omri/Olaf/Osama (fat chance)
Replace Paloma by Puricima/Pitina/Pepita/Pia (had to search for some Hispanic girls' names)

There should be more truly fearsome names, like ones associated with malefactors, on these lists IMHO.

[Ad Novoxium]

This may give some perspective on the name retirememt criteria...

1996's Hurricane Bertha: A Major Category 3 Hurricane that crossed the Leeward Islands and passed near Puerto Rico, later making landfall in North Carolina as a Category 2 storm, causing $270 million in damage to the United States and its possessions and many indirect deaths.

Bertha was not retired in '96.

In terms of perspective, it sounds good, but there's more to think of. For instance, some names that are retired regardless of basin (Sudal in WPac and Klaus in Atl) with low damage totals. However, the reason they are retired is that those totals represent damage to the economic infrastructure of where they hit. Like Sudal. According to the NCDC report, Sudal was responsible for $14 million in damage, which is kind of paltry for damage total, but this was mostly on Yap, which was essentially crippled by it. In some countries, what the US considers $14 million might equate as $14 billion in the other country. Another example of retired names that went against the rule are some cases of EPac names. In the record, Ioke, Paka, Kenna, and Iwa are examples of retired names, but at this same level, names that did nothing, like Adele or Knut, were also retired. Another reason, as given by the WMO, is if a name is "socially unacceptable" in a different language. 1978's Fico, from what I heard, met this fate (although it did hit land, Hawaii). Knut, likely, also was retired for this very reason (given the implications the name suggests should it be pronounced with a silent K). So from what I see, here's a list of retirement/removal reasons (blue is Atl, red is EPac, green CPac, and orange WPac:

-High death tolls (Fifi, Diana, Flora)
-High damage in regards to country economy (Klaus, Sudal)
-Both the above (Mitch, Camille, Katrina, Durian)
-Socially unacceptable meaning in a different language (Knut+, Fico)
-Record breaking (Vamei++, Ioke)
-Political sensitivities (Israel, Adolph)
-Socially sensitive (Hanuman*, Frances**)
-Misspelling (Changmi>Jangmi, Noguri>Neoguri, Ramasoon>Rammasun)
-Culturally or linguistically insignificant (Ioke^)
-Name change (Hali, Li)
-Other (Yanyan^^, Tingting#, Kodo, Adele)

+Just my idea on it.
++Lowest forming tropical cyclone in terms of latitude.
*The India Meteorological Department objected to Hanuman due to religious reasons.
**Following a request by France during the 03 session, the WMO planned to retire the name Frances after 04, but the hurricane's effects were cause alone for retirement.
^According to a note Hurricanehink on Wikipedia got in regards to Hawaiian retirements:
"Ioke was retired because it was such a significant system, but also because it was an incorrect Hawaiian word. So you can
considered it retired, but it would have been removed if it hadn't been retired because it had no Hawaiian meaning."
^^The original replacement for this name was "Taichi", but due to a socially unacceptable meaning, Dolphin was used.
#Like Yanyan, the original name to replace this one, Kapok, also had a socially unacceptable meaning, leading to Lionrock being the replacement. Unlike Yanyan, Tingting affected land and was one of Guam's wettest tropical cyclones.

Of these names, three (Israel, Hanuman, and Kodo, though some of the misspelled WPac names may have been as well) were replaced before being used, but were on names lists, and four others (Vamei, Fico, Tingting, and Ioke) were retired for reasons other than damage where they hit (though Fico may be different). In addition, one (Paka) was retired nine years after the cyclone formed for damages (the cyclone was in 1997, the name was retired in 2006) and three others (Carol, Edna, and Janet) were retroactively retired.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

I sympathize with the idea that "intimidating" names should be chosen for storms. But I think the main criterion should still be "short and easy to pronounce", so I wouldn't like to see Hildegarde as a hurricane name.

But of course the main difficulty with using "intimidating" as a criterion is that different cultures, and even different generations within a culture, have very different associations to the same name. Personally I was amazed that a previous poster's first association to Ike was to a "wife beater"; in spite of his being President when I was in early elementary school, I still think of Eisenhower, not Turner, as my first association with Ike. So it seems like a friendly sort of nickname to me.

And it's hard for me to see Ichabod as being intimidating. To me Ichabod Crane is just the opposite, a person who is easily intimidated. Ichabod sounds silly, not dangerous, to me personally.

Even some common names have different associations in different cultures. I think that most Americans still consider Eric to be a fairly macho-sounding Viking-like name. In England, many people think of Eric as a namby pamby name, like Cedric, because of a children's book formerly popular in Britain called Eric, or Little by Little. George Orwell, whose real name was Eric Blair, was famously quoted as saying that being named Eric had almost "ruined" him, which is hard for Americans to understand. It would be interesting to find out whether the American or English association would be stronger in the English-speaking Caribbean.

[somethingfunny]

Scary names?

Dolly = Hurricane Death
Hanna = Hurricane House Reaper
Fay = Hurricane Fear
Gustav = Hurricane Gay Marriage
Ike = Hurricane I'M GONNA DIE IF I DON'T EVACUATE!
Omar = Hurricane OH MY GOD GET OUT!
Paloma = Hurricane Poopstorm
Nana = Hurricane Nibbles

[CrazyC83]

With the season over (barring a December surprise), here is my estimates for likelihood for retirement:

Arthur

Case for retirement: Not much of one, although it did a bit of damage in Mexico and Belize

Case against retirement: Weak, overall modest damage, relatively low death toll

Chance of being retired: 3%

My verdict:

Bertha

Case for retirement: Record-setting July storm

Case against retirement: No significant land impacts

Chance of being retired: 3%

My verdict:

Cristobal

Case for retirement: No real case, apart from touching land

Case against retirement: No deaths or significant damage

Chance of being retired: 2%

My verdict:

Dolly

Case for retirement: Fairly high damage total (although incomplete)

Case against retirement: Death toll mostly due to fringe effects, much of the damage was to crops

Chance of being retired: 25%

My verdict:

Edouard

Case for retirement: No real case, although it did make landfall

Case against retirement: Minimal damage, no deaths on land

Chance of being retired: 2%

My verdict:

Fay

Case for retirement: Persistent rainmaker, fairly significant death toll

Case against retirement: Never a hurricane, no real catastrophic damage anywhere

Chance of being retired: 20%

My verdict:

Gustav

Case for retirement: High death toll, very significant damage in 4 countries (especially Cuba and the US)

Case against retirement: Not much of one

Chance of being retired: 95%

My verdict:

Hanna

Case for retirement: Very high death toll, significant flood damage in Haiti

Case against retirement: Most of the damage was in Haiti, which has a poor record on retiring names

Chance of being retired: 60%

My verdict:

Ike

Case for retirement: High death toll, 3rd costliest storm, very destructive in both Cuba and the US with major damage in Haiti, Jamaica and the Turks and Caicos

Case against retirement: Not much of one

Chance of being retired: 97%

My verdict:

Josephine

Case for retirement: None

Case against retirement: No damage or casualties, only minimal land effects

Chance of being retired: <2%

My verdict:

Kyle

Case for retirement: Some damage in the Caribbean before becoming a storm, and some in Canada

Case against retirement: No deaths while a storm, overall damage not significant

Chance of being retired: 3%

My verdict:

Laura

Case for retirement: None

Case against retirement: Never impacted land

Chance of being retired: <2%

My verdict:

Marco

Case for retirement: Record-setting storm for size

Case against retirement: No significant damage and no deaths

Chance of being retired: 3%

My verdict:

Nana

Case for retirement: Are you kidding???

Case against retirement: Never impacted land

Chance of being retired: <2%

My verdict:

Omar

Case for retirement: Intense storm as it passed the Leewards

Case against retirement: Damage and casualties fairly low, worst of storm remained over water

Chance of being retired: 15%

My verdict:

Paloma

Case for retirement: Severe damage, very strong storm in both the Caymans and Cuba

Case against retirement: Low death toll

Chance of being retired: 55%

My verdict:

In a nutshell, Gustav and Ike are almost certainly going to be retired. I think Hanna and Paloma have a good shot at retirement, but it is not guaranteed by any means. Dolly, Fay and Omar have an outside chance.

[Iune]

The seasonal summary said Fay had 178 million so it won't be retired
Paloma will be retired, more than a billion so definite
If Dolly's damage total is right, then probable yes
Hanna has to be retired for it killed 530 people.

[Ad Novoxium]

The seasonal summary said Fay had 178 million so it won't be retired
Paloma will be retired, more than a billion so definite
If Dolly's damage total is right, then probable yes
Hanna has to be retired for it killed 530 people.

Pardon me for being nebby, but which season summary said $178 million for Fay?

[CrazyC83]

There is no reliable figure for Fay at this point. My personal guess is around $500M.

[Hurricanehink]

That $178 million figure was from Wikipedia, which I personally found using data from NCDC. It might be changed, but that's the best guess for now.

[CrazyC83]

My suggestion for replacement names (I know most will not be used by any means, but they are just there):

Arthur -> Anthony
Bertha -> Brianna
Cristobal -> Corbin
Dolly -> Dawn
Edouard -> Etienne
Fay -> Felicite
Gustav -> Galeno
Hanna -> Heather
Ike -> Ingram
Josephine -> Jolene
Kyle -> Kimball
Laura -> Leah
Marco -> Mateo
Nana -> Neva
Omar -> Orville
Paloma -> Penny

[Ad Novoxium]

My ideas for retired names? (This is all I view as having chances. First is my first choice, followed by secondaries):

-Dolly > Daphne (Darla, Daisy)
-Fay > Farah (Felice, Fina)
-Gustav > Guy (Gary, Geoff)
-Hanna > Helga (Holly)
-Ike > Irving (Irv, Ingmar)
-Omar > Octavio (Orson, Opie)
-Paloma > Pia (Pepita, Pamela)

[Derek Ortt]

keep in mind you must replace spanish names with spanish names, etc

[CrazyC83]

keep in mind you must replace spanish names with spanish names, etc

That doesn't seem to always happen lately:

2002 - Isidore -> Ike (S to E)
2002 - Lili -> Laura (E to E)
2003 - Fabian -> Fred (E to E)
2003 - Isabel -> Ida (E to E)
2003 - Juan -> Joaquin (S to S)
2004 - Charley -> Colin (E to E)
2004 - Frances -> Fiona (E to E)
2004 - Ivan -> Igor (S to E)
2004 - Jeanne -> Julia (F to E)
2005 - Dennis -> Don (E to E)
2005 - Katrina -> Katia (E to E)
2005 - Rita -> Rina (E to E)
2005 - Stan -> Sean (E to E)
2005 - Wilma -> Whitney (E to E)
2007 - Dean -> Dorian (E to E)
2007 - Felix -> Fernand (F to F)
2007 - Noel -> Nestor (F to S)

I did try to keep the same ethnicity, but in some cases (i.e. Paloma) that may be really difficult.

[CrazyC83]

One thing for sure: it has been many years since there was so much uncertainty in terms of retired names. There are only 2 sure bets, but as many as 7 have at least a shot.

[Derek Ortt]

Igor is not an Engligh name! It is clearly a spanish name

Julia is a spanish name (pronounced who-lee-ah) nd Nestor is French

[HurricaneRobert]

Igor's a Russian name. It may be popular in Spanish-language countries, but both it and Julia are borrowed.

[wyq614]

I think Julia can be an English name and Nestor is a Spanish name e.g. Néstor Kirchner former Argentinian president.

[Derek Ortt]

Julia can be an English name, but it is Spanish in this case. I have heard it pronounced many times