SIO: Ex Tropical Cyclone Anika (02S)

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:00pm WDT on Monday the 17th of November 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

The monsoon trough is active along about 10S. A low pressure system is expected
to develop in the monsoon trough on Wednesday or Thursday though it is unlikely
that it will form into a tropical cyclone by Thursday.
The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the next three days is
Tuesday : Low
Wednesday : Low
Thursday : Low
** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[wyq614]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0S 90.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED MET-
SAT IMAGERY AND A 172224Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED BUT CON-
SOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC LIES
EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND WESTWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1008 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS JUST BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS STRONGER THAN OPTIMAL, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.


ECWMF forecasted a cyclogenesis several days ago in Perth's AOR, 90S is likely the one.

[HURAKAN]

Looks great.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:17pm WDT on Tuesday the 18th of November 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

A low has developed near 9S 91E within an active monsoon trough. It is expected
to develop further in the next few days and may reach cyclone intensity later on
Wednesday or Thursday as it moves to the east southeast into the region.

A second low is developing well west of the area and is also expected to move
eastwards in the next few days approaching 90E by the weekend.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the next three days is
Wednesday : High
Thursday : High
Friday : High
** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 180930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1S 91.2E TO 10.9S 95.9E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
180830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.3S
92.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2S
91.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 92.3E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
AND A 180759Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOW A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEPENING CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDS
ON ITS WEST AND SOUTH SIDE. THESE BANDS HAVE BECOME TIGHTER AND
BETTER DEFINED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LLCC LIES EQUATORWARD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR BUT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALY-
SIS INDICATES GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW EN-
HANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 190930Z.//

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

FLASH TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 6:20 pm WDT on Tuesday, 18 November 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for the Cocos Islands.

At 6:00 pm WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be
535 kilometres west northwest of Cocos Island and
moving east southeast at 21 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday and gales with wind
gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop over the Cocos Islands later on
Wednesday.

Details of Tropical Low at 6:00 pm WDT:
.Centre located near...... 9.6 degrees South 92.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 21 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1004 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 10:00 pm WDT Tuesday 18 November.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

TCWC Jakarta have also issued warnings and watches for Indonesia. Note that their watches include the threat of rain, not necessarily winds. As the cyclone may influence bad weather over SW Indonesia large swathes are now under watch.

IDJ20080
INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

EXTREME WEATHER WARNING

Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 16:22 WIB 18/11/2008

EXTREME WEATHER WARNING NUMBER 1

A CYCLONE WARNING for a Tropical Depression has been declared for areas Kodya Tangerang, Lebak, Pandeglang, Serang and Lampung Barat.

A CYCLONE WATCH for a Tropical Depression has been declared for areas Tangerang, Bengkulu Selatan, Bengkulu Utara, Rejang Lebong, Jakarta Pusat, Jakarta Selatan, Jakarta Timur, Jakarta Utara, Bandung, Bekasi, Bogor, Ciamis, Cianjur, Cirebon, Garut, Indramayu, Karawang, Kodya Bandung, Kodya Bogor, Kodya Sukabumi, Kuningan, Majalengka, Purwakarta, Subang, Sukabumi, Sumedang, Tasikmalaya, Kodya Bandar Lampung, Lampung Selatan, Lampung Tengah, Lampung Utara and Ogan Komering Hulu.

At 13:00 WIB Tropical Depression NONAME was estimated to be 1240 kilometres southwest of Kerinci and moving southeast at 17 kilometres per hour around Indonesia area.

The depression is expected to develop into a TROPICAL CYCLONE within the next twelve to twenty four hours.

Extreme weather is expected to develop caused by this tropical cyclone.

Heavy Rain (more than 50 mm/day) have a possibility occure within next 24 hours in area Kodya Tangerang, Lebak, Pandeglang, Serang and Lampung Barat
Heavy Rain (more than 50 mm/day) have a possibility occure within next 48 hours in area Kodya Tangerang, Lebak, Pandeglang, Serang and Lampung Barat Kodya Sukabumi, Kuningan, Majalengka, Purwakarta, Subang, Sukabumi, Sumedang, Tasikmalaya, Kodya Bandar Lampung, Lampung Selatan, Lampung Tengah, Lampung Utara and Ogan Komering Hulu

Details of Tropical Depression NONAME at 13:00 WIB:
. Centre located near...... 9.4 degrees south 92.5 degrees east
. Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 17 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals
. Maximum wind speed....... 45 kilometres per hour

The next advice will be issued by 20:00 WIB Tuesday 18 November.

This advice is available on telephone 021-6546314, 4246321 ext 377

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 9:55 pm WDT on Tuesday, 18 November 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for the Cocos Islands.

At 9:00 pm WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be
470 kilometres northwest of Cocos Island and
moving east southeast at 18 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday and gales with wind
gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop over the Cocos Islands later on
Wednesday.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:00 pm WDT:
.Centre located near...... 9.8 degrees South 93.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 18 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 1:00 am WDT Wednesday 19 November.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

18/0830 UTC 10.1S 92.8E T1.5/1.5 90S -- Southeast Indian

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 12:45 am WDT on Wednesday, 19 November 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for the Cocos Islands.

At 12:00 am WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be
355 kilometres northwest of Cocos Island and
moving east southeast at 22 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday and gales with wind
gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop over the Cocos Islands later on
Wednesday.

Details of Tropical Low at 12:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 10.2 degrees South 94.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 22 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 4:00 am WDT Wednesday 19 November.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 02S.

[HURAKAN]

18/1430 UTC 10.1S 94.3E T2.0/2.0 90S -- Southeast Indian

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 4:05 am WDT on Wednesday, 19 November 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for the Cocos Islands.

At 3:00 am WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be
300 kilometres northwest of Cocos Island and
moving east southeast at 22 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone today [Wednesday] as it passes to
the north of the Cocos Islands. Gales with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour
could develop over the Cocos Islands during the day.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 10.3 degrees South 94.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 46 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 22 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 7:00 am WDT Wednesday 19 November.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtsatfloat1.html

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180921Z NOV 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 10.3S 94.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S 94.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 10.7S 96.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 11.2S 98.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 12.0S 100.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 12.8S 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 10.4S 95.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (TWO) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY AND A 181511Z
AMSU-B IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH
SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS WANED SLIGHTLY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS, RECENT IMAGERY SHOWS A RESURGENCE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITH BANDING BECOMING TIGHTER AND BETTER DEFINED. THE LLCC
LIES BENEATH A WEAKLY DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY
WEAK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES MAY SERVE TO LIMIT THE MAXIMUM INTENS-
ITY OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE BASED UPON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW RES-
PECTIVELY, AND A 180230Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING 30 TO 40 WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
EQUATORWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 180921Z NOV 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21
PGTW 180930 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN

[P.K.]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 6:55 am WDT on Wednesday, 19 November 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for the Cocos Islands.

At 6:00 am WDT Tropical Cyclone Anika was estimated to be
240 kilometres northwest of Cocos Island and
moving east southeast at 22 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Anika has formed to the northwest of the Cocos Islands and is
expected to maintain an east to southeast movement over the next few days.
Gales with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour could develop over the Cocos
Islands today as the tropical cyclone passes to the north of the Islands.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Anika at 6:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 10.5 degrees South 95.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 22 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 10:00 am WDT Wednesday 19 November.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[CrazyC83]

The first storm of the year in the Australian region.

[HURAKAN]

18/2030 UTC 10.3S 95.9E T2.5/2.5 02S -- Southeast Indian