2008 TCRs

[CrazyC83]

Marie (EPAC) is also out.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Sixteen (ATL) report is up.

The reports are being posted at the first post of thread.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Darn, Dolly isn't up yet. Brought much needed rain to my yard.


Well, Ike was more of an inconvenience than it was worth, but if it hadn't been for Dolly, Edouard and Ike we'd be dry as a desert.


As it was, my sprinkler still saw heavy service this summer.

d. Forecast and Warning Critique
The development of Edouard was not well anticipated. The precursor disturbance moved offshore into the Gulf of Mexico the day prior to genesis, and was introduced into the Tropical Weather Outlook only 18 h prior to the best track’s genesis time. Even at the time of (best track) genesis, the experimental genesis forecast probability was only at 50%. Northerly shear and dry continental air were considered to be inhibiting factors for development.

I will say, based on a heads up from my man Joe Bastardi, I started a thread for Edouard several days in advance...

[HurricaneRobert]

That poor sprinkler...

[RattleMan]

Odile and Fausto TCRs up; Fausto lowered to Cat 1 peak, Odile peak lowered as well.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm dying to know, (ok, not dying, but curious) if Fay gets an upgrade based on the eye-like feature.

[CrazyC83]

I'm dying to know, (ok, not dying, but curious) if Fay gets an upgrade based on the eye-like feature.

I doubt it, since there was no data to support such.

[Cyclenall]

I'm dying to know, (ok, not dying, but curious) if Fay gets an upgrade based on the eye-like feature.

I doubt it, since there was no data to support such.

What happened to that weather station report in the middle of Florida that showed sustained hurricane force winds during the passage of Fay?

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm dying to know, (ok, not dying, but curious) if Fay gets an upgrade based on the eye-like feature.

I doubt it, since there was no data to support such.

What happened to that weather station report in the middle of Florida that showed sustained hurricane force winds during the passage of Fay?

Yes there were some stations at and around the lake that had 80Kt+ winds..

[Derek Ortt]

Yes there were some stations at and around the lake that had 80Kt+ winds..

I believe gusts only

[wxman57]

The HRD report indicates sustained winds in the 57-58kt range across Lake Okeechobee as Fay passed. No data to support an upgrade:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour02.png

[CrazyC83]

I believe there were gusts around 70-75 kt in Fay. That typically supports an intensity around 55-60 kt (although it is possible there were slightly higher winds not sampled). I'd go with 60 kt for the peak intensity and 55 kt for the landfall intensity, since the pressure was falling leading up to landfall (988 at landfall, it only went down to about 985 inland) and I am thinking that the normal Recon conversions which only supported about 45-50 kt didn't apply as they don't match up to surface obs.

[cycloneye]

(EPAC) Tropical Depression Seventeen-E report is up.

The reports are being posted at the first post of thread.

[cycloneye]

(EPAC) Tropical Storm Lowell report is up.

The reports are being posted at the first post of thread.

[cycloneye]

(ATL) Tropical Storm Nana report is up.

The reports are being posted at the first post of thread.

[wxman57]

(ATL) Tropical Storm Nana report is up.

The reports are being posted at the first post of thread.

Great! I've been on the edge of my seat waiting for that one!

[Ed Mahmoud]

(ATL) Tropical Storm Nana report is up.

The reports are being posted at the first post of thread.

Great! I've been on the edge of my seat waiting for that one!

I keep telling you, the real action is the Texas winter thread. Snow in Dallas next week? Pro-met Derek and his frustrations with Charlie Weis and Notre Dame football also makes for an exciting thread. I may or may not add a new comment to the TX WWx thread. Radar echoes have the snow look between LBB and AMA, with temps in mid 30s to low 40sF, but I can't find any surface stations reporting precip of any kind, so I may hold off.


I am interested to see if Dolly gets a reduction in landfall rate to Cat 1. And I still have some hope (on the scale of Mizzou upsetting Oklahoma) that Fay gets the post-season upgrade so Florida can claim a hurricane strike this year.

[CrazyC83]

Two more TCR's out - Josephine and Kyle.

Kyle's peak intensity increased to 75 kt.

[cycloneye]

Another report out is of (EPAC) Tropical Storm Iselle.

The reports are being posted at the first post of thread.

[JonathanBelles]

Two more TCR's out - Josephine and Kyle.

Kyle's peak intensity increased to 75 kt.

Forgive me for my forgetfulness, but what was Kyle's peak intensity before? 70kts?