ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

I didnt expected this to be a invest,but here it is.

BEGIN
NHC
invest_al962008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200811232108
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2008, DB, O, 2008112318, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962008
AL, 96, 2008112118, , BEST, 0, 113N, 787W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112200, , BEST, 0, 112N, 792W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112206, , BEST, 0, 110N, 797W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112212, , BEST, 0, 109N, 801W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112218, , BEST, 0, 107N, 804W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112300, , BEST, 0, 105N, 805W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112306, , BEST, 0, 102N, 805W, 30, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112312, , BEST, 0, 100N, 803W, 30, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008112318, , BEST, 0, 99N, 801W, 30, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ,

[wxman57]

NHC must be bored. 40-50 kts shear = not a chance

[tolakram]

Shear relaxing south to north, perhaps forecast conditions look more favorable?

[wxman57]

Shear relaxing south to north, perhaps forecast conditions look more favorable?

Nope, models forecast slow dissipation.

[JonathanBelles]

This should have been named an invest earlier instead of now, if ever. I dont think it should be being watched tropically.

[Derek Ortt]

I dont see it as unfavorable as wxman

I do see divergent flow aloft. However, if it moves at all to the north, shear city

Move north disturbance... I have important plans at the dry tortugas next saturday

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 232347
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF PANAMA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART

[wyq614]

Best track 00z 10.0N 80.2W, 1006mb, one more milibar lower.

[HURAKAN]

WOW, I'm impressed that it has been upgraded. Persistence pays at the end!!!

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

SHIP S 0000 13.60 -77.60 210 42 60 25.3 - 9.8 6.0 - - 29.84

[Derek Ortt]

I think this could be a TD by Tuesday... MUCH TO MY ANNOYANCE

[cycloneye]

23/2345 UTC 10.5N 78.7W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[cycloneye]

Floater 1 is over 96L.

[CrazyC83]

It might be a TD right now with that blob of deep convection there...will it persist though? This is amazing in more than 40 kt of shear!

[cycloneye]

What a way to close the very remarkable 2008 season with this.

[wyq614]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but It appears to me that the system is being sheared..

[HURAKAN]

[Cyclenall]

NHC must be bored. 40-50 kts shear = not a chance

I'm puzzled, if there is that much shear there why is there still consolidated convection that has lasted for 5 DAYS? This does have a chance (see Miracle), and I would place that at 35%.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but It appears to me that the system is being sheared..

That is correct. It's not likely there would be a non-sheared system in late November or December.

[HURAKAN]

As the cold winds of winter roar from the Arctic lands, a lone hot spot emerges in the Caribbean. "It's not over until it's over!"