2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[Extremeweatherguy]

Today's 12z GFS continues to look equally impressive for December 2nd into December 3rd...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I like that last one, with NNE winds at the surface and 850 mb temps below zero with some precip in HOU area, maybe I'll get to miss work, the kids'll miss school, and we'll all play in the sleet/snow/ice.

AccuWx GFS raw temps suggest the surface stays too warm for any accumulation in immediate HOU area, but maybe it'll change in our favor. Or maybe it won't.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Last night's Euro showed a direct flow from Alaska to the Southern Plains at 240 hours, and did not show a cut off low near Baja.

So I don't put a lot of confidence in this, but this would seem to divert coldest air East of Texas, but again, the Euro has changed from the 0Z run. It does show a 1020 mb high pushing into Texas, which would suggest cool weather, anyway.

[iorange55]

New GFS 18 run still showing cold air, no precip on the 3rd but it is showing a little on the 5th.


The models have been fairly consistent over the last couple of days. I'm still trying not to get my hopes up though.

[iorange55]

UGH new gfs 00 model depresses me. looks like its taking the cold air east.

[Extremeweatherguy]

UGH new gfs 00 model depresses me. looks like its taking the cold air east.

I wouldn't worry too much about the models right now. I think they are probably under-playing the upcoming cold. Wait until we get closer to December, and the models will probably start to sway in our favor. From what I have been hearing from a few pro mets, the pattern is still looking quite favorable for a nice shot of arctic air to enter the U.S.A. by the early to middle part of next month.

[iorange55]

UGH new gfs 00 model depresses me. looks like its taking the cold air east.

I wouldn't worry too much about the models right now. I think they are probably under-playing the upcoming cold. Wait until we get closer to December, and the models will probably start to sway in our favor. From what I have been hearing from a few pro mets, the pattern is still looking quite favorable for a nice shot of arctic air to enter the U.S.A. by the early to middle part of next month.

I sure hope you are right, most of the new models are hardly showing any cold for us now. Big change from a day or two ago. BOO! I guess you just have to wait and see. Hopefully they're wrong *crosses fingers*

[Portastorm]

Well as Ed pointed out yesterday, the Euro trended more east with the full latitude trough around Dec. 2-3 and that is now what the GFS is showing. Both the 0z GFS and 0z Euro dig a very deep, very cold trough over the Great Lakes and eastern U.S. but leave those of us in the southern Plains out of the winter "fun."

Still think we are in a wait-and-see mode like EWG said but the trend right now is NOT our friend!

However, I would be remiss if I didn't point out that the Canadian model looks to be setting up the trough more in the middle of the nation. Here's a link:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I'll just say this.

When DT (wxrisk.com) and JB are on the same page about Deep South cold, thats when I start stockpiling my firewood.

It appears they are both on board for a very cold December. JB even notes this AM it might be the coldest since 1989 which was the last damaging (citrus) freeze in the RGV.

It might be cold enough to get the old timers that used to forecast out of NWS Brownsville out of retirement to come in and tell the newbies to dump the computer models and look at some history.

[jinftl]

Hopefully we don't see any killing freezes anywhere this winter...I know there are alot of fans of extreme weather of one form or another here (myself included)...but the last thing we possibly need this year is a economically devestating freeze to any of the growing regions....that could be as devestating...or more....than a hurricane would be to local farmers in parts of texas and florida (and the s.w. u.s.), local economies, and eventually the American consumer.

Weather that is 'not typical' for a region can be fun to forecast and watch unfold...let's stop that short of doing damage to people's livelihoods and wallets however.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS ensembles seem to suggest coldest air with the ~December 3rd cold shot misses Texas to the East.

[Portastorm]

The 12z GFS is rolling now and is back to the very cold and possibly icy/snowy scenario for parts of Texas. Take a look at both the 500mb and 850 mb maps at 162 hrs. It's a classic setup for a winter weather event in Texas should it verify as we have an arctic airmass pressing down the Southern Plains and a cutoff low out west of the state.

The map at 500 mb:



The map at 850 mb:

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 12z GFS is rolling now and is back to the very cold and possibly icy/snowy scenario for parts of Texas. Take a look at both the 500mb and 850 mb maps at 162 hrs. It's a classic setup for a winter weather event in Texas should it verify as we have an arctic airmass pressing down the Southern Plains and a cutoff low out west of the state.

The map at 500 mb:



The map at 850 mb:

The Sunday morning and mid day maps suggest freezing/frozen precip creating traffic issues West and Southwest of DFW for people returning from Thanksgiving.




Looks like snow in San Angelo next Sunday if GFS verifies, surface temp just above freezing, but heights and 850 mb temps look favorable.

Code: Select all

SUN 12Z 30-NOV   2.3    -3.8    1019      77      99    0.18     555     539   
SUN 18Z 30-NOV   0.6    -4.1    1024      94      99    0.18     556     537   
MON 00Z 01-DEC   0.5    -5.2    1025      87      88    0.02     557     536   

[Extremeweatherguy]

I hope Dallas is spared this possible storm. I will be flying back to OKC on Sunday and will be connecting through Dallas. I DO NOT want my flight to be delayed or cancelled due to ice/snow!

[gboudx]

I hope Dallas is spared this possible storm. I will be flying back to OKC on Sunday and will be connecting through Dallas. I DO NOT want my flight to be delayed or cancelled due to ice/snow!

I hope OKC is spared too so that you don't have delays or cancellations on your return there either.

[Portastorm]

I hope Dallas is spared this possible storm. I will be flying back to OKC on Sunday and will be connecting through Dallas. I DO NOT want my flight to be delayed or cancelled due to ice/snow!

I hope OKC is spared too so that you don't have delays or cancellations on your return there either.

This might be a bit OT, but it doesn't take much "weather" at all at DFW to screw things up. If you're flying Southwest thru Love Field you're better off. Just my take.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I hope Dallas is spared this possible storm. I will be flying back to OKC on Sunday and will be connecting through Dallas. I DO NOT want my flight to be delayed or cancelled due to ice/snow!

I hope OKC is spared too so that you don't have delays or cancellations on your return there either.

Yeah, I hope the same. The best case scenario for both locations would be for any wintry precipitation to hold off until the week after, when there are not as many people traveling.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Euro still shows the brunt of the cold weather next weekend missing Texas.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z Canadian doesn't go out as far as the Euro or GFS, but seems somewhat closer to the GFS prediction in 6 days.

[iorange55]

I hope Dallas is spared this possible storm. I will be flying back to OKC on Sunday and will be connecting through Dallas. I DO NOT want my flight to be delayed or cancelled due to ice/snow!

How dare you :[ we only get one or two a year. Psh bring on the storm. Airports can be comfy.