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jinftl
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Re:

#2981 Postby jinftl » Sat Nov 29, 2008 9:19 am

Amen! We really do need some rain...

November 2008 Rainfall so far...departure from normal month-to-date in ( ).

JACKSONVILLE 0.30" (-1.90")
GAINESVILLE 0.08" (-1.93")
TALLAHASSEE 3.55" (-0.05")
PENSACOLA 0.53" (-3.65")
PANAMA CITY 1.38" (-2.93")
ORLANDO 0.48" (-1.48")
DAYTONA BEACH 0.85" (-2.00")
TAMPA 0.37" (-1.11")
SARASOTA 0.27" (-1.92")
FORT MYERS 0.01" (-1.70")
NAPLES 0.03" (-1.84")
WEST PALM BEACH 0.37" (-4.88")
FORT LAUDERDALE 0.30" (-4.30"). FTL is almost 11" below normal for the year.
MIAMI 0.75" (-2.75")
KEY WEST TRACE (-2.75")

HURAKAN wrote:Image

The rain is badly needed.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Cool shot coming!

#2982 Postby jinftl » Sat Nov 29, 2008 1:42 pm

Clouding up in the panhandle....rest of the state enjoying a picture postcard pm!

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
100 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2008

PENSACOLA CLOUDY 72
DESTIN PTSUNNY 75
APALACHICOLA CLOUDY 73
TALLAHASSEE CLOUDY 73
GAINESVILLE PTSUNNY 76
JACKSONVILLE PTSUNNY 75
ORLANDO INTL MOSUNNY 78
DAYTONA BEACH SUNNY 78
FT PIERCE MOSUNNY 79
CLEARWATER SUNNY 78
TAMPA MOSUNNY 74
FT MYERS SUNNY 77
NAPLES MOSUNNY 78
KEY WEST NAS MOSUNNY 78
FT LAUDERDALE MOSUNNY 79
PEMBROKE PINES SUNNY 80
MIAMI MOSUNNY 79
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Slgt SVR WX risk Saturday/Sunday!

#2983 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Nov 29, 2008 2:22 pm

SPC AC 291709

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2008

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN
FL...

...FLORIDA/SRN GA...
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL U.S. TONIGHT WILL DEEPEN
AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE MS VALLEY SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WHICH WILL
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL JET MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION.
AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO NCNTRL FL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE ONGOING
IN THE FL PANHANDLE IN THE MORNING. THIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN INTACT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MOVING ACROSS CNTRL FL BY EARLY EVENING. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...A POWERFUL 100 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS NRN FL AND GA SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL CREATE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION EXCEPT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SUGGEST PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 70S F SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND SBCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THE VERTICAL
SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DUE TO A 50 TO 60 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET OVER MUCH OF FL WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. LCL HEIGHTS BELOW 300 METERS WILL
FURTHER AID THE TORNADO THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE
GREATEST WITH DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE SQUALL-LINE SHOULD
PREDOMINANTLY BE WIND DAMAGE DUE TO STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
IF SOME ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE CAN PERSIST.

..BROYLES.. 11/29/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1914Z (2:14PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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#2984 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Nov 29, 2008 2:24 pm

The TBW long term Graphicast says 11 foot waves are possible tuesday!
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#2985 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Nov 29, 2008 4:14 pm

The weather looks to be turning very rough for the next 72 hours or so.
Damaging Winds, Tornadoes, and Coastal Flooding possible.
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#2986 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Nov 29, 2008 4:27 pm

Line segments are beginning to form just north of the state. Here, in St. Pete it was a perfect day: Warm and Sunny in the morning for a car wash fund raiser, then cool, cloudy, and breezy in the afternoon, which is perfect weather to mow your grass.
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Re:

#2987 Postby jinftl » Sat Nov 29, 2008 4:38 pm

Certainly the risk is there for severe storms, but I don't get the sense this will be a widespread damaging event for the state. Isolated cells could become severe according to the SPC analysis posted above. That is sometimes the case with the summer thunderstorms we see here in Florida. I wouldn't go out on a boat tomorrow..and definitely keep an eye to the sky and to the weather service or news for updates...but hopefully we will at least some some rain across the parched peninsula. The emerging fire danger we will face this spring if the dry weather continues is alarming.

The cold weather behind the front...although very chilly by local standards, doesn't look like it will be the coldest weather we have seen so far this fall even. And all NWS offices across Florida forecast a warm-up to seasonable temps by thursday and a zonal flow developing, with steady temps for at least the short-term thereafter.

From NWS Tampa Bay,
THE COOL SPELL IS SHORT LIVED AS AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB
BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.




Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:The weather looks to be turning very rough for the next 72 hours or so.
Damaging Winds, Tornadoes, and Coastal Flooding possible.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Slgt SVR WX risk Saturday/Sunday!

#2988 Postby Dionne » Sat Nov 29, 2008 4:41 pm

The Florida panhandle is getting the squall line that tracked over us last night. Reports of 3-5 inches rain here in Copiah county, MS. Couple of tornadoes. NWS Jackson has been the usual 5 star dummy. Technical probs, delayed warnings with flood advisory.........sorry deal.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Slgt SVR WX risk Saturday/Sunday!

#2989 Postby jinftl » Sat Nov 29, 2008 4:47 pm

No severe tstorm or tornado watches or warnings have been issued for the line in the panhandle...knock on wood

from NWS Mobile:
IN ADDITION TO THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH...IN
ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. A BRIEF
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER RISK TODAY IS LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINS.

from NWS Tallahassee:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL INTENSIFY AND APPROACH
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
STRONG WINDS FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 2 INCHES...BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL CAUSE TIDES OF 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST...AS WELL AS HIGH WINDS AND SEAS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

Dionne wrote:The Florida panhandle is getting the squall line that tracked over us last night. Reports of 3-5 inches rain here in Copiah county, MS. Couple of tornadoes. NWS Jackson has been the usual 5 star dummy. Technical probs, delayed warnings with flood advisory.........sorry deal.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Slgt SVR WX risk Saturday/Sunday!

#2990 Postby jinftl » Sat Nov 29, 2008 5:07 pm

Today's KBDI Index....according to Florida Forestry Division, normal KBDI values in the Fall are in the 200-420 range...most of the state is in the 400-700 range now.

Image

http://www.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/information/seasonal.html
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Slgt SVR WX risk Saturday/Sunday!

#2991 Postby Dionne » Sat Nov 29, 2008 5:08 pm

Good for you jinftl.......glad to hear your okay....did you read the items you posted? Damaging winds with 4" of rain. Maybe it's just me.....I'm getting old......but those spec's make me pay attention.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Slgt SVR WX risk Saturday/Sunday!

#2992 Postby jinftl » Sat Nov 29, 2008 5:13 pm

All quiet in south florida until tomorrow. The threat of severe weather definitely has got my attention...as you can see from my posts...but at least for the short-term, no severe thunderstorm or tornado watches have been issued. With volatile and changing weather situations like this, I 100% agree keeping tuned in to the weather and following weather alerts (if issued) are keys to safety.

4" of rain in any one spot is alot in a short amount of time...fortunately, the dry weather as of late will hopefully help contain any localized flooding. Any flood advisories are also important to look out for....as of right now, none in florida...but that could change quickly in the panhandle.

A long period of light rain is what Florida could really use.

According to SPC, only one report so far of severe weather today (in GA) and one yesterday (in TX)...this map can be lit up like a christmas tree during widespread severe outbreaks
Image

Image



Dionne wrote:Good for you jinftl.......glad to hear your okay....did you read the items you posted? Damaging winds with 4" of rain. Maybe it's just me.....I'm getting old......but those spec's make me pay attention.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Slgt SVR WX risk Saturday/Sunday!

#2993 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Nov 29, 2008 10:17 pm

Significant Severe Weather Impacts: Expect coastal flooding and violent
storms with damaging winds possible

Also, widespread tropical storm force winds (gale force) will follow with the frontal
passage Starting Sunday and lasting until Tuesday.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... er+Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
427 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-300930-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
427 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT THEN UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS EARLY ON SUNDAY THEN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND STRONG UPWARD LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...
ISOLATED TORNADOES...OR MARINE WATERSPOUTS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT 40
TO 50 MPH AND WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES. RESIDENT AND VISITORS OF WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
WITH GUSTS TO GALE UP TO FORCE OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THESE INCREASING WINDS WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS WHICH
WILL BRING DETERIORATING BOATING AND SURF CONDITIONS TO ALL OF THE GULF
WATERS INCLUDING TAMPA BAY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
POSTED FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

FISHERMEN AND OTHER SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE TRIPS
INTO THE GULF TONIGHT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
AS THE SEAS BUILD OVER THE GULF WATERS LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AREA BEACHES WITH INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND
STRONG UNDERTOWS. RESIDENT AND VISITORS PLANNING TO VISIT THE BEACH
SHOULD HEED THE ADVISE OF THE BEACH PATROL. DO NOT SWIM AT UNGUARDED
BEACHES.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL HELP
TO BUILDS SEAS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL CAUSE TIDES TO RUN SOME 2 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL FROM SAINT PETERSBURG BEACH NORTH TO CEDAR KEY WHICH MAY
CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...OVERWASH...AND MINOR BEACH EROSION
AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN ADDITION THE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS AND STRONG UNDERTOWS AND LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE.

RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG THE COAST SHOULD MONITOR WATER LEVELS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD FLOODING
BE OBSERVED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY BUT SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORMAL ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY.

$$

DAVIS
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Slgt SVR WX risk Saturday/Sunday!

#2994 Postby jinftl » Sat Nov 29, 2008 11:06 pm

Are you referring to marine conditions for boating interests?

There will not be widespread (or localized for that matter) tropical storm force winds on land starting sunday and lasting through tuesday. Any severe storms in the next 24 hours could have very strong winds..even damaging in isolated spots...but once the front passes, the area will be left with breezy conditions only...no 2-day ts or gale force wind event.

As of now, there are no severe weather watches or warnings, flood advisories, high wind warnings over land, tornado watches...and no reports of severe weather took place as the squall moved through the panhandle today. It's going to be alright, floridians have dealt with much worse and come out ok. Just hold off the boating until next weekend...looks like a pleasant one as of now...and keep a 'floridian thunderstorm capital of the world' eye to the sky tomorrow. ;p



NWS Forecast for: Tampa FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Tampa Bay, FL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Overnight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. South wind around 11 mph.

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Some storms could be severe, with damaging winds. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. Southwest wind between 13 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers. Some storms could be severe, with damaging winds. Cloudy, with a low around 57. West wind between 7 and 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 64. West northwest wind between 13 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. North northwest wind between 10 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. North northeast wind between 6 and 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 42. North wind around 7 mph becoming east.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 69. East wind around 7 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 49. Light east southeast wind.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 52.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 54.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.



Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Significant Severe Weather Impacts: Expect coastal flooding and violent
storms with damaging winds possible

Also, widespread tropical storm force winds (gale force) will follow with the frontal
passage Starting Sunday and lasting until Tuesday.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Slgt SVR WX risk Saturday/Sunday!

#2995 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Nov 29, 2008 11:23 pm

000
FXUS62 KMFL 300341
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1041 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2008

.UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEVELOPING FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF IT. NOT
MUCH EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A BIT OR BEGUN TO DO SO AND
OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM OFF OUR SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS IS ALREADY BEING REFLECTED WITH 5 SHIP REPORTS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS ALREADY REFLECTING 20 KNOTS OR GREATER AND NOW
FOWEY ROCKS ALSO MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH. SO WITH THAT SAID
ADJUSTED MARINE GRIDS AND RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND PUT ONE UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN QUITE A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHER THAN THAT JUST
ADJUSTED THE REST OF THE GRIDS TO MORE PROPERLY REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

NOW...THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE TSTM FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. AN EXTENSIVE
LOOK AT THIS INCLUDING ANALYSIS OF SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS WITH
CROSS SECTIONS OF THETA-E, DIV-Q, OMEGA, AGEOSTROPIC CIRCULATIONS
TO ASSESS THE VERTICAL AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
FORCING, LOW LEVEL JET AND HELICITY VALUES REVEALS THIS IS INDEED
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WE HAVE HAD IN QUITE A WHILE.
RIGHT NOW IT KEEPS LOOKING LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING NW
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING, MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS BY EARLY MORNING AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
THE LARGE SCALE DEEP ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL JET REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND REALLY DOES NOT STRETCH THIS FAR
SOUTH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. OMEGA ALSO WEAKENS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
AND SO I BELIEVE A SQUALL LINE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT IT IS
LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH NOT TO MENTION THE SBCAPES WILL
BE ON THE WAY DOWN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED BY
THE FACT THAT THE PROBABILITY OF T IN THE MOS GUIDANCE DECREASES
OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT AFTER HAVING PEAKED LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HAVING SAID THAT THE LOW
LEVEL JET LOOKS AS GOOD AS IT CAN USUALLY GET DOWN HERE WITH
GFS40, NAM12, AND THE GFSENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING IT AROUND 45 TO 50
KNOTS. SO IF THE LINE MANAGES TO HOLD TOGETHER AND THE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT REMAINS DECENT, STRONG STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS ARE INDEED A POSSIBILITY BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE MORE LIKELY
TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. BY THE TIME THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA IN THE EVENING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MOSTLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WHICH MEANS THIS IS THE MAIN THREAT BY THEN AND
NOT TORNADOES.


NOW, IF YOU LOOK CLOSER AT BOTH GFS AND NAM, YOU WILL SEE THAT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND GOING ON
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON, THE MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF STRONG
OMEGAS ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS IS NOT VERY DEEP AS
EXPECTED BECAUSE IT IS NOT THE RESULT OF STRONG LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET UP NORTH BUT RATHER THE RESULT OF
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW WITH WARM AID ADVECTION AT LOW
LEVELS. THIS SHOULD MAKE IT FOR A WARM JUICY ATMOSPHERE DURING
THAT PERIOD. DURING THAT SAME PERIOD, THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALREADY PRESENT BUT WITH DECENT VALUES OF 0-3KM
HELICITIES. SO IF LOW LEVEL FORCING MATERIALIZES WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BY EITHER THE PRESENCE OF A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH OR
DEVELOPMENT OF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE (QUESTIONABLE GIVEN STRENGTH
OF LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW) OR SPEED CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THE
LAND INDUCED FRICTION ON THE STRONG ONSHORE SLY AND SWLY FLOW AT
LOW LEVELS FROM THE STRAITS AND/OR GULF, WE COULD THEN GET STRONG
STORMS AND THOSE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BECOMING ROTATING
SUPERCELLS. BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING REMAINS A
BIG QUESTION MARK. ALL IN ALL, I WOULD SAY WE CANNOT SAY IT IS
LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR, BUT THE ELEMENTS ARE PRESENT
AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WE WILL GET STRONG STORMS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME COULD TURN SEVERE. SO WE AMENDED THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK" OUTLOOK ACCORDINGLY FOR TOMORROW.


IN THIS CONTEXT...THE PRESENT FORECAST OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS REASONABLE.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMFL
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Slgt SVR WX risk Saturday/Sunday!

#2996 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Nov 29, 2008 11:43 pm

I meant mainly the gulf waters, and near the coast. Gale force
wind gusts (tropical storm force gusts) are expected near coastal
areas and for boaters, and that is with the front alone. The thunderstorms,
even if they do not go severe, the definition of severe being 58 mph, could
easily add to 40 mph gusts making gusts near 50 mph with the storms
possible.

http://forecast.weather.gov/shmrn.php?mz=gmz853

SUNDAY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET BUILDING
TO 8 TO 10 FEET. BAY AND INLAND WATERS ROUGH. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY
AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT
WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. BAY AND INLAND WATERS ROUGH. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY
WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE. SEAS
8 TO 10 FEET. BAY AND INLAND WATERS VERY ROUGH. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE
FORCE.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. BAY AND INLAND WATERS VERY ROUGH. CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

Also, coastal flooding is expected: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw warnings in green.
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#2997 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Nov 29, 2008 11:46 pm

Also, for coastal cities- tropical storm force gusts:
Sunday Night: A chance of showers. Some storms could be severe, with damaging winds. Cloudy, with a low around 62. West wind between 13 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 65. Windy, with a west northwest wind between 21 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Windy, with a north northwest wind 26 to 29 mph decreasing to between 15 and 18 mph. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... it=0&lg=en
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#2998 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Nov 30, 2008 1:04 am

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2008

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN GA AND THE FL
PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO FURTHER DEEPENING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES TODAY...WITH 60-120 METER HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDING
SWD INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. HEIGHT GRADIENT IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS WILL TIGHTEN AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS RESULTING IN STRONG WIND
FIELDS EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GULF/SERN STATES TO
THE EAST COAST.

AT 12Z...A SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER WRN/CENTRAL GA WITH A
COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE NERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC REGION...IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND
SHOULD REACH THE NERN STATES BY 12Z MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MOVING ACROSS SRN GA AND
THROUGH FL TO WELL OFFSHORE THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z
MONDAY. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG OR JUST
OFF THE SRN TIP OF FL BY END OF THE PERIOD.

...SERN GA/FL...
MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS LOW LEVEL SLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 50+ KT IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S APPEAR
LIKELY INTO PARTS OF NRN-CENTRAL FL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VALUES
IN THE LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE
HEATING WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/
AIR MASS FROM SRN/CENTRAL TO PERHAPS NERN FL.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAK ACROSS NRN FL/SRN GA THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...A NARROW BAND OF FORCED ASCENT/
MOISTENING ALONG PRIMARY WIND SHIFT SHOULD RESULT IN A LOW TOPPED
SQUALL LINE SPREADING EWD ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL. THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z 4
KM WRF-NMM WITH THE COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE REACHING A LINE FROM
SRQ-DAB BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

FARTHER S...GREATER MOISTURE/STRONGER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE UP TO 1500
J/KG/ COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR /SFC-1 KM
SRH AROUND 300 M2/S2/ WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF INTO S FL. ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
S FL...WITH OVERALL THREAT DIMINISHING BY LATE EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

..PETERS/SMITH.. 11/30/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
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#2999 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Nov 30, 2008 3:03 am

Conditions are calm and paradise-like. A nice, refreshing, south marine breeze is
blowing into my window.
I've been watching the developing squall on the loops. It looks intense with a
lot of cold cloud tops:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html
This squall has a very sharp V-Shape with a very tight origin and well-defined
extension, signifying rain with gusty strong winds along the convergence
boundary.
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#3000 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 30, 2008 7:50 am

Image

Pretty intense.
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