Florida Weather

[HURAKAN]

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA RUSKIN FL
841 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ALONG PARTS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT...

.AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST IT WILL
PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP
TO GALE FORCE TODAY SHIFTING INTO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

FLZ039-042-048>050-302300-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SU.Y.0011.081130T1400Z-081130T2300Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.CF.S.0009.000000T0000Z-081201T0500Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-
841 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

...HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES FROM PASCO TO LEVY COUNTIES THROUGH
TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND
STRONG WEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE WILL HELP TO BUILDS SEAS OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS WILL CAUSE TIDES TO RUN SOME 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
FROM SAINT PETERSBURG BEACH NORTH TO CEDAR KEY TODAY. THESE ABOVE
NORMAL TIDES MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND OVERWASH
AS WELL AS MINOR BEACH EROSION AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THESE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WEST FLORIDA
COAST THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS...STRONG UNDERTOWS...AND HAZARDOUS SURF OF 4 TO 6
FEET OR LARGER AT AREA BEACHES.

RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG THE COAST SHOULD MONITOR WATER LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD
FLOODING BE OBSERVED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DANGEROUS WATER ACTION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. THIS INCLUDES ROUGH SURF...LARGE
BREAKING WAVES...RIP CURRENTS...AND STRONG UNDERTOW.

BEACH GOERS ARE URGED TO HEED LIFEGUARD WARNINGS.

[HURAKAN]

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF IT TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SOME BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES. ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS TODAY.

Link: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/gcast/#

[dizzyfish]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 939
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

TORNADO WATCH 939 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC001-003-007-017-019-031-035-053-057-069-075-083-089-095-097-
101-103-105-107-109-117-119-125-127-302200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0939.081130T1450Z-081130T2200Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CITRUS CLAY DUVAL
FLAGLER HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH
LAKE LEVY MARION
NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA
PASCO PINELLAS POLK
PUTNAM SEMINOLE ST. JOHNS
SUMTER UNION VOLUSIA
$$

[jinftl]

What is interesting...and i am speaking only for se fl (although this may prove true throughout the state)...is that there seems to be alot more instability and atmospheric dynamics colliding with this frontal system compared to others we have seen this Fall...most of which have passed through 'dry'...but have still packed very much of a punch in terms of ushering in dryer air and much cooler temps.

Although we may see strong or severe storms with this front, the air it will be ushering in...although noticeably cooler and drier... is not currently forecast to be the coldest weather we have seen this season in terms of temperature and duration. It would almost seem that with the severe threat of this front compared to others, the cooldown behind it would be much more dramatic and harsh. (Although low 70s and 50s at night is truly tough for many locals to deal with..almost include myself in that i am ashamed to admit...lol).

Miami's official lowest high temp this fall so far has amazingly been 71 deg on October 28! The lowest minimum to date was 52 deg on Nov 19. Both of those strong fronts brought no severe weather as they passed. By comparison, the forecast lowest temp in Miami with this front is 57 deg.


NWS Forecast for: Miami FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida
Last Update: 9:53 am EST Nov 30, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Windy, with a south wind between 24 and 28 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tonight: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 9pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9pm and 1am, then a chance of showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Windy, with a west wind 22 to 25 mph decreasing to between 14 and 17 mph. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Breezy, with a northwest wind between 7 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. North wind between 7 and 10 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. North wind between 9 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 57. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 73. Northeast wind around 14 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. East wind around 14 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 77. East wind between 5 and 9 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

[robbielyn]

Yesterday was a beautiful day at belaire beach north of spb and clrwtr bch. Was very windy but sand wasn't stinging me. Too cold to get wet of course but I saw one northerner wade in.
Wow strong winds hope keeps the er patients at bay today. Would like an easy night at work before my 9 day vacay. Looks like thursday only day to go to ft meyers beach, temp will be 76 if it doesn't change and that is only for one day as another cold front comes so when the mets on tv say we're going to rebound nicely its for only one day not a few days. Oh well. Hope the computers don't crash today which they probably will d/t the strong winds. They crash too easy for a hospital that heavily depends on them. hope ya'll stay safe. Robbielyn

[robbielyn]

The front is very strong pushing this air through at a strong verocity but the cold front itself isn't majorly cold it isn't an extremely cold canadian airmass that you get in Jan and Feb the coldest months of the year. Don't be surprised if in the winter our tornado season maybe bad this year like in 98. I think if these cold fronts keep coming through then in Jan and Feb we will be getting lots of cold weather like in 85. I was in the panhandle in 85 and temps were 0 degrees during the day in January. I read somewhere we are in neutral ENSO so that isn't influencing our weather patterns this winter so it is anything goes other players welcome to take over. ENSO taking a breather I guess.

[jinftl]

Current weather conditions...winds already decreasing in the panhandle (where the front has already passed)

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
1000 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

PENSACOLA CLOUDY 55 W13G22
CRESTVIEW CLOUDY 59 W7
PANAMA CITY CLOUDY 60 NW9
APALACHICOLA LGT RAIN 67 W14
TALLAHASSEE CLOUDY 63 S7
GAINESVILLE CLOUDY 70 S15G21
JACKSONVILLE CLOUDY 68 S13
ORLANDO INTL CLOUDY 75 S15G28
DAYTONA BEACH PTSUNNY 75 SW16G29
MELBOURNE PTSUNNY 75 S18G28
TAMPA PTSUNNY 75 S14G22
ST PETERSBURG SUNNY 74 S22G29
SARASOTA MOSUNNY 75 S23G29
FT MYERS CLOUDY 78 S12G22
KEY WEST INTL CLOUDY 77 S17
W PALM BEACH PTSUNNY 80 S18
FT LAUDERDALE PTSUNNY 79 S16G26
MIAMI CLOUDY 77 S15G23

[jinftl]

Very interesting...thanks for the info.

NWS Miami released a discussion on the winter outlook...overall drier than normal with near normal/slightly above normal temps expected...but with brief cold outbreaks possible...although i am going to go out on a limb and say Miami will not see a daytime high as low as 0 deg like you experienced in the panhandle! (If so, 'you know what' has probably frozen over and we have bigger issues...lol)

TEMPERATURES SIGNALS DURING NEUTRAL TO WEAK LA NINA WINTERS AND SPRINGS ARE NOT AS WELL DEFINED. PREVIOUS YEARS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE WINTER MONTHS, WITH ALTERNATING WARM AND COLD PERIODS LASTING FROM A FEW WEEKS TO AS LONG AS MONTH OR MORE. FOR EXAMPLE, THE WINTER SEASONS OF 1960-1961 AND 1980-1981 PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT COLD SPELLS AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. OTHER YEARS SUCH AS 1996-1997 WERE QUITE WARM WITH BRIEF BUT INTENSE COLD OUTBREAKS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A HIGHER THAN NORMAL LIKELIHOOD OF A FREEZE OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WINTER, EVEN IF OVERALL WINTER TEMPERATURES END UP NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/news/Dry%20Season%20Outlook%200809.pdf

The front is very strong pushing this air through at a strong verocity but the cold front itself isn't majorly cold it isn't an extremely cold canadian airmass that you get in Jan and Feb the coldest months of the year. Don't be surprised if in the winter our tornado season maybe bad this year like in 98. I think if these cold fronts keep coming through then in Jan and Feb we will be getting lots of cold weather like in 85. I was in the panhandle in 85 and temps were 0 degrees during the day in January. I read somewhere we are in neutral ENSO so that isn't influencing our weather patterns this winter so it is anything goes other players welcome to take over. ENSO taking a breather I guess.

[psyclone]

the squall line doesn't look that impressive imo, however considering we're already getting winds gusting north of 30, it won't take much to squeeze out a 50mph gust with the line. I'm headed out to the beach to greet the line. it's about time we had some interesting weather and we desperately need any rain we can get

[JonathanBelles]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1124 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>051-301730-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-CITRUS-LEVY-PASCO-
1124 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM...
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WILLISTON TO 60 MILES WEST OF EGMONT KEY...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CRYSTAL RIVER...
HOMOSASSA SPRINGS...BEVERLY HILLS AND SPRING HILL...UNTIL 1230 PM
EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE.

[dizzyfish]

Very breezy this morning. Pouring rain now and the temp is dropping.

[JonathanBelles]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1254 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...HOLLYWOOD STUDIOS...WINTER PARK...
ORLANDO...OAK RIDGE...MAITLAND...FAIRVIEW SHORES... EPCOT...AZALEA
PARK...
CENTRAL SEMINOLE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER SPRINGS...OVIEDO...LAKE
JESSUP...GOLDENROD...GENEVA...CASSELBERRY...

* UNTIL 200 PM EST

* AT 1251 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES WEST
OF CELEBRATION. THIS TORNADO WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. ANOTHER
STORM NEAR MAITLAND WAS ALSO SHOWING STRONG ROTATION AND MAY DEVELOP
A TORNADO.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PALM
SHADOWS...MULLET LAKE PARK...LAKE HARNEY...FAIRVILLA...EATONVILLE
AND ALOMA

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO AT ANY TIME. PEOPLE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD ACT NOW IN ORDER TO PROTECT THEMSELVES.
DO NOT WAIT FOR THE TORNADO TO DEVELOP BEFORE ACTING...YOU MAY NOT
SEE OR HEAR ITS APPROACH. DO NOT GET CAUGHT OFF GUARD!

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO
SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

IF YOU EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE RELAY YOUR REPORT TO LOCAL
LAW ENFORCEMENT AND ASK THEM TO PASS IT ALONG TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. OR YOU MAY CALL THE MELBOURNE WEATHER OFFICE DIRECTLY AT
THIS NUMBER 1 800 683 4468. YOUR TIMELY REPORT COULD SAVE SOMEONES
LIFE!

[JonathanBelles]

Getting very dark here, wind beginning to pick up.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL AND CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 939...

VALID 301724Z - 301900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 939 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL FL. THREAT MAY EVENTUALLY INCREASE SOUTH OF WW
939 WHERE ANOTHER WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WITH TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION EXTENDS FROM
JUST SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE SWWD TO ABOUT 40 NM NW OF THE TAMPA AREA.
THIS LINE IS MOVING EAST AT 25-30 KT WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN
THE LINE ARE MOVING RAPIDLY NE. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN
WARM SECTOR OVER MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER...MORNING RAOBS
SHOWED A PRONOUNCED INVERSION AROUND 700 MB IN THIS REGION WHICH IS
LIMITING VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY SO FAR. ASCENT WITHIN THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS IN WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...MIXING IS SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT
BREAKS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR 80.

HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING NE ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF
UPPER TROUGH MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE INVERSION LAYER
THROUGH LIFTING AND COOLING AND EVENTUALLY PROMOTE DEEPER CONVECTION
OVER CNTRL FL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY
WARM ESPECIALLY WITH SWD EXTENT INTO SRN FL...AND THIS WILL LIMIT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MOSTLY TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. THE
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR.
NEVERTHELESS...BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN AOA 50 KT AND LARGE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT
FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE LINE WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY SINCE TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE
MORE ROBUST IF THE MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE LINE BEGINS
TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING IN VERTICAL EXTENT.

..DIAL.. 11/30/2008

[Dave]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 940
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

TORNADO WATCH 940 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC009-011-015-021-027-043-049-051-055-061-071-081-085-086-087-
093-099-111-115-010100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0940.081130T1805Z-081201T0100Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE
COLLIER DESOTO GLADES
HARDEE HENDRY HIGHLANDS
INDIAN RIVER LEE MANATEE
MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE
OKEECHOBEE PALM BEACH SARASOTA
ST. LUCIE
$$

[psyclone]

well the line is through my neighborhood and it was pretty much a non event. some ominous clouds but convection was shallow and not enough to bring stronger winds to the surface... in fact winds actually reduced as the line moved in. no thunder either. stuff to the east looks more impressive.

[JonathanBelles]

No thunder here either, moderate very well needed rain. quite gusty.

[JonathanBelles]

1755 3 WNW CELEBRATION OSCEOLA FL 2833 8159 TORNADO OBSEREVED NR INTERSECTION OF US192 AND N.OLD LAKE WILSON ROAD. MINOR VEHICLE DAMAGE REPORTED (MLB)

[JonathanBelles]

Wind:

1632 UNK 5 ENE YANKEETOWN LEVY FL 2906 8268 SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN NORTH OF CRACKERTOWN. (TBW)
1635 UNK 1 S INGLIS CITRUS FL 2902 8266 MINOR DAMAGE TO THREE HOMES AND A FEW TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. (TBW)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Windy earlier this morning with st.pete/clearwater airport reporting
gusts to 37 mph. The squall line had breezy winds of 20-30 mph
and moderate rain. Pressure is down to 1003 mb. Winds will pick up on the
backside of this storm system, and by tonight and tomorrow expect
tropical storm force gusts over the water.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=146