2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[Ed Mahmoud]

JOY!


6Z GFS says Texas East of I-45, and the entire state of Louisiana, snow covered in 12 days!!!

Image below will change tomorrow...

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS run should definitely spark the interest of all Texans...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_240l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_252l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_264l.gif

[iorange55]

The 18z GFS run should definitely spark the interest of all Texans...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_240l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_252l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_264l.gif

You just tease me with that stuff huh? You know it's never right but you want to get my hopes up just to see them get crushed?


What a sick extremeweatherguy

[gboudx]

The 18z GFS run should definitely spark the interest of all Texans...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_240l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_252l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_264l.gif

Not really. Get me a GFS run like that inside of 72-84 hours and I'll raise an eyebrow. Get me one inside of 36 hours and I'll raise 2 eyebrows. Get me one inside of 12 hours and I'll still wait until I see it falling. Been burned too many times to believe that.

[vbhoutex]

The 18z GFS run should definitely spark the interest of all Texans...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_240l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_252l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_264l.gif

Not really. Get me a GFS run like that inside of 72-84 hours and I'll raise an eyebrow. Get me one inside of 36 hours and I'll raise 2 eyebrows. Get me one inside of 12 hours and I'll still wait until I see it falling. Been burned too many times to believe that.

Oh, I will raise an eyebrow or two till I see it happen, but as far as any other celebratory gesture till it happens-NAW!!!!!

[LaBreeze]

It's cold, but I'm not seeing the development of any type of frozen precip 12 days from now. I know that models will change.

[ROCK]

I usually dont post in winter weather threads because I hate winter with a passion, However that 18z run is really interesting at 240-260hr. Not really a strong high to the north though...1030ishs?

I think Im going to start a WINTER OVER THREAD for the UPPER TX COAST. That will surely get us something down here......right Ed??????

We love ya buddy.....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Temps rising and pressure down, only -22ºF and 1031 mb, in Bettles.

Maybe it means the cold high pressure has started to shift around.


I was personally hoping it got to -40º and over 1050 mb there. Fort Yukon looks like it is getting colder, however, down to -32ºF (-36º), but the pressure is only 1034 mb, about the same as yesterday.

Pressure been steady around 1026 mb, not too impressive, but if the thermometer at Arctic Village, AK is correct, it is -45ºF (-43º).
152 people in Arctic Village, 86% Indigenous, 8% White, the rest mixed race.

114 males for every female, 128 males over 18 for every 100 females over 18. Per Wiki. So it is freakishly cold, and hard to get a date on Saturday night. Glad I don't live there.

6Z GFS keeps Texas snow free the next 2 weeks.

[Ed Mahmoud]

240 hour Canadian says that other than some flakes tomorrow night in the Northern Panhandle, no snow for Texas.

[Portastorm]

Yes Ed, but the 0z GFS from about 324 hours to 384 hours has Texas covered in snow from Laredo to Corpus up to Tyler and to points northwest of that line!!

The GFS' inconsistency in the medium range has been well documented in this thread and forum so no need to say anything there. However, it is hard to deny several days worth of runs that show some kind of pattern change is in the works for the middle of December ... one that could bring us some very cold air the likes we haven't seen in awhile.

[vbhoutex]

From Jeff Lindner:

Lastly:



It is at least worth a mention although confidence is tremendously lacking. The GFS has been hinting at a significant upper air pattern amplification toward the middle part of December with potential intrusion of a bitter cold arctic air mass into the US east of the Rocky mountains. While very cold air is currently bottled in the SE part of Alaska the question is will it still remain in that area in by the time the upper air pattern locks into a less progressive pattern allowing this air mass to dump into the US. Unlike previous cold air events this fall to this point, the upper air pattern would support a southerly direction of the main cold push down the slopes of the Rockies and the plains instead of the glancing blows we have received to date. Something to watch…

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS says we're less than a week away from a dusting/nuisance snow for DFW Metroplex.



Not enough to cancel school, but should be nice to see.

ETA: Next Wednesday morning, a -20ºC (at about 1500 meters) almost 1040 mb high moving into the Yukon. 500 mb heights suggest the flow would deliver the coldest air a bit East of Texas, but if it is cold enough, it may head more Equatorward from its own density.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_500_lu_loop.shtml

[wxman57]

Today's 12Z GFS says no snow for Dallas area next Tue. Dry behind the front with temps above freezing. Have to be careful about the precip amounts on the charts, they're not for the valid time of the chart, they're for the previous 6 hours before that valid time. Green near the 540 line doesn't mean snow. The 540 line is valid at the chart valid time but the precip may have ended 6 hours before it got cold enough.

In any case, not looking like much of an event for NE TX next week at least according to today's GFS. And a rapid warm-up for Texas next Wed/Thu.

There, now I posted here, Ed.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Today's 12Z GFS says no snow for Dallas area next Tue/Wed. Dry behind the front with temps above freezing. Have to be careful about the precip amounts on the charts, they're not for the valid time of the chart, they're for the previous 6 hours before that valid time. Green near the 540 line doesn't mean snow. The 540 line is valid at the chart valid time but the precip may have ended 6 hours before it got cold enough.

In any case, not looking like much of an event for NE TX next week at least according to today's GFS. There, now I posted here, Ed.

Whooooooo-Hooooooo!

[Ed Mahmoud]

My AccuWx PPV GFS machine output for specific cities gives 2 meter, 1000-500 thickness, 850 mb temps, and precip, but the precip is for the previous six hours, so I usually do a rough mental interpolation of how much precip occured in the prior six hours time frame and the 850 and surface temps and thickness to the one in question, and the subsequent six hour time frame, to guess whether precip is predicted after the magic temps/thicknesses are reached.

Inside 84 hours, the PSU e-Wall has 3 hour increments, and draws in magic 1000-500 and 1000-700 thicknesses, and 850 mb temps for the WRF and GFS models. The Northeast floater (it is Penn State, after all) even draws in surface temps, great for prediciting potential icing.

For the Plains/Texas, I have to guess at icing from the e-Wall by looking for spreads between the magic thicknesses, and the 850 mb freezing line, and then pick a city, (if it is an obscure city, use the weather.noaa.gov website to find the current conditions, and more importantly, the 3 letter airport code, and feed it to the AccuWx MOS generator, to see if it indeed seems to be predicting icing.


No fancy workstations for an amateur like me, just the World Wide Internet.

[Portastorm]

I have not seen anyone reference the 0z Euro for next week. It shows a very cold low crossing the state at a low enough latitude that I think would cause some winter weather in north Texas.

The 500 mb map:



The 850 mb map:

[jasons2k]

Here is the latest from Jeff Lindner:

Temperatures warming very slowly under overcast deck and cold air advection.

All area temps. remain in the 40’s as of 1000am with a 39 still at Crockett. Cloud mass moving SW across the area…however even upstream temps. under sunny skies still in the mid 30’s around Dallas with nosing 850mb ridging resulting in continued cold air advection.

Looking for some fairly cold lows tonight if skies can clear out. Given dewpoints falling into the mid 20’s northern areas now which should filter south supports near freezing temps. in many areas. Saving factor may be the center of the high stays to our north allowing winds to stay up and temps. from bottoming out. Friday night we may not be as lucky…however S TX coastal troughing becomes established and clear skies may cloud over during the afternoon and evening saving parts of the area from a freeze. Tough call so for now will go with near freezing tonight along and N of US 59 and in the typical cold areas such as Angleton. Freeze may be more widespread Saturday morning…will have to see how things line up on Friday.

Will need to continue to maintain close watch on far range extended as models continue to show potential for significant arctic air intrusion into the US around the middle of the month. Additional factors appear to be coming into play to add more confidence that a significant…possibly…record breaking cold air event could be in the making. Model signals are showing similarities to historical cold air events in Dec 1989 and Dec 1983…close watch on this is needed.

FWIW I've seen many mets, including Jeff, mention '89 and '83 many many many times over the years and we haven't seen anything close since...well...1989.

[gboudx]

jason, thanks for posting jeff's updates. I don't get those.

[PTrackerLA]

You're exactly right, 1989 and 1985 get thrown around almost every winter and it hasn't even been close. We haven't even reached the teens since 1996 and we were in the single digits back in the '89. It was so cold in '89 that you could literally walk across ponds the ice was so thick. Mid-20's seems to be what is considered an arctic blast around here lately and even that doesn't happen every year. Show me 22 degrees or lower and I'll be impressed .

[Ed Mahmoud]

FWIW, 12 Canadian has a winter weather event for the Permian Basin next week...