Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

#281 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 12:23 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
gboudx wrote:In respects to wxman57's comments, what is the timeframe he's referring to?

Ten to fifteen days per the KHOU forum, which has annoying and frequent pop-ups.

Thanks. Got our annual Christmas trip to visit family in New Orleans coming up on the 19th, so I'm wondering how much we'll be impacted. The 1 year we had to delay was when it snowed down there on Christmas Day. I think that was 2004.

cctxhurricanewatcher · #282 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 1:59 pm

Portastorm wrote:I remember single digits in Austin during that 1989 December Arctic blast. As someone who grew up in northeastern Ohio and was so happy to get out of winter-land, I couldn't believe it would ever get that cold in Austin, Texas. My then girlfriend (now wife) was laughing at how much of a weenie I was when I complained about the cold those few days. That was amazing. And I really prefer a 30-degree, ice/snow event over single digit cold outbreak, thankyouverymuch.

My memory of 1989 was in my hometown and an old citrus packing shed that caught fire. The next morning I drove by it and it looked like a fire scene you would see on the news from cold country with all the ice accumlation. Really a sight to behold in South Texas.

#283 Postby **somethingfunny** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 2:17 pm

AGGHHHHHH NOSEBLEED!!!!! :cold:

Grayson County Airport
Lat: 33.73 Lon: -96.67 Elev: 748
Last Update on Dec 4, 1:05 pm CST

Fair

45°F
(7°C) Humidity: 25 %
Wind Speed: N 18 G 23 MPH
Barometer: 30.43"
Dewpoint: 10°F (-12°C)
Wind Chill: 37°F (3°C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

Extremeweatherguy · #284 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 2:26 pm

It is cold here in OKC today! At 1:26pm we are still only in the middle 30s with cloudy skies overhead. :cold:

#285 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 2:48 pm

From Jeff Lindner:

Will need to continue to maintain close watch on far range extended as models continue to show potential for significant arctic air intrusion into the US around the middle of the month. Additional factors appear to be coming into play to add more confidence that a significant…possibly…record breaking cold air event could be in the making. Model signals are showing similarities to historical cold air events in Dec 1989 and Dec 1983…close watch on this is needed.

We've managed to get up to 50ºF as of now under cloudy skies with some wind. The wind has died down some but the cold air advection continues.

Extremeweatherguy · #286 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 5:16 pm

The 18z GFS continues to show winter precipitation in Oklahoma next week...

114 HRS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_114l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_114l.gif

120 HRS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_120l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_120l.gif

#287 Postby **Dionne** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 5:50 pm

Been here since '95......we've already had more frost than any previous year....Copiah County. Right now we've already surpassed a dozen frosts. My fall greens failed......gettin a mess now and then. Onions okay. Sweet potatoes.....nice harvest. Gettin a lot of rain and temps in the upper 20F range. Early morning frost that happen a few hours before sunrise. Just my observation. I grow food for personal consumption.

No more planting.....cold is setting in.....time to wait and work the soil.

iorange55 · #288 Postby **iorange55** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 6:40 pm

From the Dallas noaa Discussion.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE DOWN THE ROCKIES ON THE HEELS OF
MONDAY/S SYSTEM AND BEGIN TO AFFECT TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS BRING THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH TEXAS BUT THE NEW
ECMWF IS NOW MUCH LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS WITH A TIMING OF
NEARLY 24-30 HOURS SLOWER. MODELS HAVE SHOWN RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN DEVELOPING AND SUPPORTING A WINTRY MIX WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE SURFACE TO 925 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM AT
THIS TIME. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN THE COMING DAYS AND MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT RAIN.

Extremeweatherguy · #289 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 11:13 pm

iorange55 · #290 Postby **iorange55** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 11:14 pm

Looks like Oklahoma is going to see something next week...but once again here in Dallas we probably won't know till it happens.

Oh and tropical depressions rock.

jinftl · #291 Postby **jinftl** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 11:22 pm

Reading some references by posters to a similar pattern to December 89 potentially shaping up…
way too soon to really know if a cold front more than a week out will result in an arctic
invasion some areas have not seen in a generation, but just as it is interesting to speculate,
it is interesting to look back in some detail at the infamous December '89 cold wave.

Overall, December '89 was well below normal….ridiculously so…..the average temps with the departure from
normal in ( ) are shown for the cities below. Just as dramatic as the cold, remember what happened
the next month….

January '90 was one of the warmest on record for many locations….the avg temp is shown
with the departure from normal in ( ). Chicago and Omaha averaged 16 deg
warmer in January than in December! Baltimore was 17 deg warmer in January and
Houston was 13 deg warmer!

Winter 89/90 showed that 'what goes down, must go up'!!! Overall, February 1990 was normal to above normal.
In fact, the Winter of 89/90 (Dec 89-Jan 90-Feb 90) doesn't even rank in the ten coldest for places
like Miami & Atlanta.

Does this mean if we do in fact see a set-up to December '89 taking shape, residents along the Gulf
might be wearing shorts some days by January, Miami will see March/April weather after the new year,
and daffodils will bloom in late february in richmond?

Chicago
Dec '89 = 18 (-9)
Jan '90 = 34 (+13)

Omaha
Dec '89 = 18 (-7)
Jan '90 = 34 (+13)

Buffalo
Dec '89 = 18 (-11)
Jan '90 = 33 (+9)

Boston
Dec '89 = 22 (-12)
Jan '90 = 36 (+7)

Baltimore
Dec '89 = 25 (-12)
Jan '90 = 42 (+10)

Nashville
Dec '89 = 29 (-12)
Jan '90 = 46 (+10)

Atlanta
Dec '89 = 39 (-6)
Jan '90 = 50(+9)

Miami
Dec '89 = 65 (-4)
Jan '90 = 73 (+6)

New Orleans
Dec '89 = 47 (-8)
Jan '90 = 58 (+7)

Dallas
Dec '89 = 41 (-6)
Jan '90 = 54 (+11)

Houston
Dec '89 = 46 (-8)
Jan '90 = 59 (+9)

(data from accuweather)

iorange55 · #292 Postby **iorange55** » Thu Dec 04, 2008 11:25 pm

My favorite weatherman Steve McCauley just said that the first snowstorm for texas and Oklahoma is on it's way next week. He said it could be a significant winter storm. But he said for right now Dallas will probably see mainly cold rain but it'll be close.

This is how it is every winter.

Extremeweatherguy · #293 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Dec 05, 2008 9:14 am

Norman, OK NWS now officially calling for rain/snow next Tuesday...

Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Ed Mahmoud · #294 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Fri Dec 05, 2008 9:39 am

"Mr Bittercold" on the KHOU weather forum posted this juicy tidbit, possible indicative of the good news/bad news am I excited or nervous scenario of a big Arctic blast into Texas.

Amga, Russia Updated: 35 min 25 sec ago
-47 °F / -44 °C
Fog
Windchill: -47 °F / -44 °C
Humidity: 59%
Dew Point: -56 °F / -49 °C
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.30 in / 1026 hPa (Steady)
Visibility: 0.1 miles / 0.2 kilometers
Elevation: 338 ft / 103 m Local Time: 8:32 PM YAKT (

Batamaj, Russia Local Time: 8:36 PM YAKTUpdated: 37 min 28 sec ago
-47 °F / -44 °C
Fog
Windchill: -47 °F / -44 °C
Humidity: 59%
Dew Point: -56 °F / -49 °C
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.30 in / 1026 hPa (Steady)
Visibility: 0.1 miles / 0.2 kilometers
Elevation: 338 ft / 103 m

Ojmjakon, Russia Local Time: 10:40 PM MAGT -39 °F / -39 °C
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 74%
Dew Point: -42 °F / -41 °C
Wind: 2 mph / 4 km/h / from the West
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 30.48 in / 1032 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 31.0 miles / 50.0 kilometers
Elevation: 2444 ft / 745 m

Pokrovsk, Russia Local Time: 8:42 PM YAKT (GMT +09) -49 °F / -45 °C
Fog
Windchill: -49 °F / -45 °C
Humidity: 66%
Dew Point: -56 °F / -49 °C
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.27 in / 1025 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 0.1 miles / 0.2 kilometers
Elevation: 338 ft / 103 m

Ed Mahmoud · #295 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Fri Dec 05, 2008 9:48 am

Bastardi thinks the Euro trough position is a bit too far West - can you imagine if it is a bit farther East and Mr. Bittercolds -50ºF Siberian temps have 500 mb flow helping a dense airmass that would want to head for the Gulf anyway pushing it along?

#296 Postby **gboudx** » Fri Dec 05, 2008 10:03 am

iorange55 wrote:My favorite weatherman Steve McCauley just said that the first snowstorm for texas and Oklahoma is on it's way next week. He said it could be a significant winter storm. But he said for right now Dallas will probably see mainly cold rain but it'll be close.

This is how it is every winter.

Steve jumps too quickly to present future weather events to the public. I don't know if he's trying to make weather exciting for the viewer or what, but he presents future events too soon and winds up being wrong most of the time. It has happened over and over and over again. I've long thought that Delkus needs to pull him in and tell him to knock that off. During the winter, he'll pull up some graph showing potential wintry precip setups depicted by the models in the 10 day timeframe. He shouldn't do that, imo.

jinftl · #297 Postby **jinftl** » Fri Dec 05, 2008 10:49 am

Cold of this level in siberia isn't necessarily full of implications for the u.s. By that, I mean it is 'crazy cold' in Siberia in the winter...

For Amga, Russia....
The Average High Temperature is -37 F with a historical range of -45 F to -22 F
The Average Low Temperature is -44 F with a historical range of -52 F to -29 F

Ed Mahmoud wrote:"Mr Bittercold" on the KHOU weather forum posted this juicy tidbit, possible indicative of the good news/bad news am I excited or nervous scenario of a big Arctic blast into Texas.

Amga, Russia Updated: 35 min 25 sec ago
-47 °F / -44 °C
Fog
Windchill: -47 °F / -44 °C
Humidity: 59%
Dew Point: -56 °F / -49 °C
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.30 in / 1026 hPa (Steady)
Visibility: 0.1 miles / 0.2 kilometers
Elevation: 338 ft / 103 m Local Time: 8:32 PM YAKT (

Batamaj, Russia Local Time: 8:36 PM YAKTUpdated: 37 min 28 sec ago
-47 °F / -44 °C
Fog
Windchill: -47 °F / -44 °C
Humidity: 59%
Dew Point: -56 °F / -49 °C
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.30 in / 1026 hPa (Steady)
Visibility: 0.1 miles / 0.2 kilometers
Elevation: 338 ft / 103 m

Ojmjakon, Russia Local Time: 10:40 PM MAGT -39 °F / -39 °C
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 74%
Dew Point: -42 °F / -41 °C
Wind: 2 mph / 4 km/h / from the West
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 30.48 in / 1032 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 31.0 miles / 50.0 kilometers
Elevation: 2444 ft / 745 m

Pokrovsk, Russia Local Time: 8:42 PM YAKT (GMT +09) -49 °F / -45 °C
Fog
Windchill: -49 °F / -45 °C
Humidity: 66%
Dew Point: -56 °F / -49 °C
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.27 in / 1025 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 0.1 miles / 0.2 kilometers
Elevation: 338 ft / 103 m

Extremeweatherguy · #298 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Dec 05, 2008 11:00 am

Some parts of Russia got down to -69F...

Verhojansk, Russia Local Time: 9:45 PM VLAT -64 °F / -53 °C
Smoke
Humidity: 51%
Dew Point: -69 °F / -56 °C
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 30.57 in / 1035 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 6.0 miles / 10.0 kilometers
Elevation: 449 ft / 137 m

Extremeweatherguy · #299 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Dec 05, 2008 11:06 am

Ed Mahmoud · #300 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Fri Dec 05, 2008 11:09 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Some parts of Russia got down to -69F...

Verhojansk, Russia Local Time: 9:45 PM VLAT -64 °F / -53 °C
Smoke
Humidity: 51%
Dew Point: -69 °F / -56 °C
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 30.57 in / 1035 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 6.0 miles / 10.0 kilometers
Elevation: 449 ft / 137 m

That was the dewpoint... but ballpark -65ºF is colder than I'd wanna be outside in...

Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

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