Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

[iorange55]

I don't know, I'm just not buying into any of it. I don't think it will be cold at all next week.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Lengthy, but interesting Discussion from CPC on 6-10 Day & 8-14 Day Outlook...

8-14 Day Temperature Outlook:


8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook:



PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EST MON DEC 08 2008

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 14 - 18 2008
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTION OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR DAYS 6-10. MOST MODELS ARE FORECASTING
A STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE BERING SEACOAST OF ALASKA OR
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE, AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME SOLUTIONS ALSO INDICATE A WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THESE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. IN GENERAL,
THE OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE MORE COLD AIR NOSING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS A SOMEWHAT WEAKER
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BUT IT IS STILL QUITE STRONG. THE BELOW
NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHOULD SUPPORT BELOW
NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHILE THE ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS SHOULD
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IN ALASKA, NORTHERLY
MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONG RIDGE AXIS CALLS FOR RELATIVELY
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE.

TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5,
DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.


8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 16 - 22 2008
RETROGRESSION OF THE PREDICTED 6-10 DAY LONG WAVE PATTERN IS INDICATED FOR WEEK
2. THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS STANDS OUT FROM THE OTHER SOLUTIONS IN THAT IT
DEPICTS A NOTICEABLY DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, WHICH CONTINUES
OVER AND TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE SOUTHEAST
US RIDGE EXTENDING FURTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS, BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS AS FAR WEST AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS THE WESTERN TROUGH SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE 6Z GFS
OPERATIONAL RUN, IT ALSO HINTS AT EXPANDING ANOMALOUS WARMTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS REGION.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED
ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO
5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS,
TEMPERATURE TOOLS, AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.


ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19981217 - 19761204 - 19511210 - 19881208 - 19911203


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19761203 - 19981217 - 19751124 - 19571121 - 19881208

$$

These CPC models are garbage in, garbage out. Of all the products the government puts out, the CPC model discussion probably ranks amongest to lowest, IMO.

[southerngale]

I don't know, I'm just not buying into any of it. I don't think it will be cold at all next week.

It may be cold, but we've had cold weather on and off lately. A few light freezes already as well. I doubt the record-breaking cold and/or wintry precip will pan out, but that's just my uneducated opinion based on these "scares" of 1989, etc. never coming to fruition. I will remain planted in wait-and-see mode, trying not to believe the hype, but always wishing for some snow.

[jinftl]

But clearly they are looking at the same models that are posted here...are there alternate sources for extended outlooks that are deemed more reliable? I have been finding the CPC discussions interesting...but more than open to recommendations on other places to look.

These CPC models are garbage in, garbage out. Of all the products the government puts out, the CPC model discussion probably ranks amongest to lowest, IMO.

[MGC]

New Orleans office today raised the mim temps for the Mississippi Coast a good ten degrees for Wed and Thurs morning from 31 to 41. They expect a cold rain though....MGC

[Brent]

I don't know, I'm just not buying into any of it. I don't think it will be cold at all next week.

It may be cold, but we've had cold weather on and off lately. A few light freezes already as well. I doubt the record-breaking cold and/or wintry precip will pan out, but that's just my uneducated opinion based on these "scares" of 1989, etc. never coming to fruition. I will remain planted in wait-and-see mode, trying not to believe the hype, but always wishing for some snow.

1989 was such an epic extreme event I don't see it either.



and 1983:

[jinftl]

How many times does the Tropics board light up when there is a 7 day model run that shows a Cat 5 hitting Miami? We see a few of these "Andrew, only bigger" scenarios each season it seems in some model run....could it actually happen one time? Sure. Is it likely in any given season? Not really.

Now the model that saw the doomsday scenario still might have been on to something as far as a disturbance forming and even effecting either florida or the southeast U.S....or even Cuba..down the road. But it might just end up being a sheared t.s. off of Charleston, instead of the Cat 5 over downtown Miami.

I immediately thought of that parallel when 1983 or 1989, what could be argued the Cat 5-version of arctic invasions, started getting thrown around a week (or more) ago for what was to come this month. With that amount of hype, there is alot of room for disappointment if that is what folks are expecting to see. Could it happen just as those model runs showed....in terms of timing, location, and severity of cold? It could. But some lesser version of the 'arctic invasion of the century' is more likely. That doesn't mean that whatever comes will be boring though....

I don't know, I'm just not buying into any of it. I don't think it will be cold at all next week.

It may be cold, but we've had cold weather on and off lately. A few light freezes already as well. I doubt the record-breaking cold and/or wintry precip will pan out, but that's just my uneducated opinion based on these "scares" of 1989, etc. never coming to fruition. I will remain planted in wait-and-see mode, trying not to believe the hype, but always wishing for some snow.

[cheezyWXguy]

How many times does the Tropics board light up when there is a 7 day model run that shows a Cat 5 hitting Miami? We see a few of these "Andrew, only bigger" scenarios each season it seems in some model run....could it actually happen one time? Sure. Is it likely in any given season? Not really.

Now the model that saw the doomsday scenario still might have been on to something as far as a disturbance forming and even effecting either florida or the southeast U.S....or even Cuba..down the road. But it might just end up being a sheared t.s. off of Charleston, instead of the Cat 5 over downtown Miami.

I immediately thought of that parallel when 1983 or 1989, what could be argued the Cat 5-version of arctic invasions, started getting thrown around a week (or more) ago for what was to come this month. With that amount of hype, there is alot of room for disappointment if that is what folks are expecting to see. Could it happen just as those model runs showed....in terms of timing, location, and severity of cold? It could. But some lesser version of the 'arctic invasion of the century' is more likely. That doesn't mean that whatever comes will be boring though....

I don't know, I'm just not buying into any of it. I don't think it will be cold at all next week.

It may be cold, but we've had cold weather on and off lately. A few light freezes already as well. I doubt the record-breaking cold and/or wintry precip will pan out, but that's just my uneducated opinion based on these "scares" of 1989, etc. never coming to fruition. I will remain planted in wait-and-see mode, trying not to believe the hype, but always wishing for some snow.

Maybe some of yall should read wxman57's post in the texas winter weather forum...He sounds pretty bold and seems pretty sure that a massive arctic outbreak is in the works. God knows if its true, but it certainly gets my attention, considering he says theres a chance we in dallas might be looking at below freezing temps from sunday night to thursday...

[iorange55]

Maybe some of yall should read wxman57's post in the texas winter weather forum...He sounds pretty bold and seems pretty sure that a massive arctic outbreak is in the works. God knows if its true, but it certainly gets my attention, considering he says theres a chance we in dallas might be looking at below freezing temps from sunday night to thursday...

I saw his post and that would be great if it happened. it's just he's really one of the only ones saying that right now, so it's hard to believe at this time.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest from Wxman57...

A typical model error is to shunt the cold air off to the east toward the Great Lakes. However, cold, dense Arctic air will drop straight south just east of the Rockies all the way to south Texas. I've seen it reach Brownsville before it pushes east to Houston on some occasions. So beware the GFS/ECMWF runs indicating an eastward push.

That said, I see nothing yet to indicate extreme cold to the Gulf coast at least behind the initial surge, which I think will reach us by Monday evening. Early indications are that this will not be a massive chunk of extremely cold Arctic air, but more of a taste. By the time the airmass reaches us, it may be very shallow and considerably modified. While I think there's a significant risk of an ice storm to our north (Dallas/Abilene - Oklahoma), I think temps there will be closer to the upper 20s. Farther south, we may be looking at a few miserable days next Tue-Thu with temps struggling to reach 40 in Houston but the clouds may keep us near or just above freezing at night.

Later next week if/when the trof axis kicks east we may have a shot at some much colder temps in Houston, perhaps mid 20s. Slight chance of lower 20s. So don't get your hopes (fears) up for a 1983/1989 type pipe busting event at this time.

[vbhoutex]

Maybe some of yall should read wxman57's post in the texas winter weather forum...He sounds pretty bold and seems pretty sure that a massive arctic outbreak is in the works. God knows if its true, but it certainly gets my attention, considering he says theres a chance we in dallas might be looking at below freezing temps from sunday night to thursday...

I saw his post and that would be great if it happened. it's just he's really one of the only ones saying that right now, so it's hard to believe at this time.

Let me add one you obviously haven't read in another thread in the Winter Forum. This is localized for SE TX, but it has to go through you to get to us. This is from Jeff Lindner mentioned above.

Significant forecast changes required this evening as complete 12Z guidance suggest much colder/wetter pattern Tuesday through Thursday morning.

Will maintain status quo forecast through Tuesday and frontal timing. Changes needed Wednesday into Thursday as there is now general agreement that the main upper trough will lag well behind the surface front resulting in a period of clouds and rainfall Wednesday into early Thursday. Model QPF is on the lower side, however surface temps. could be near freezing in some areas by late Wednesday or Thursday morning to support a mix of rain and sleet. Feel that most of the rainfall should end before temps. fall toward freezing, however cannot rule out a few ice pellets as the rainfall ends. There should be no accumulation of anything given warm ground temps. and generally light amounts to begin with.

Given expected clouds, light rain, and strong cold air advection on Wednesday will go will slowly falling temps through the 40's into the upper 30's by late afternoon as temp. is wet bulbed due to dry air advection at the lower levels resulting in evaporational cooling of the surface temp. Highs Thursday may only reach the low to mid 40's under continued cold air advection.

Addition of clouds and precip. Wednesday night may save most of the area from the freeze discussed this morning...we shall see what the next round of model runs has to say.

This could be a small taste..a teasing if you will... of the building Siberian air mass with current temps. around -55F this evening in northern Siberia...

This along with other posts of Jeff's(another pro-met like Wxman57) is still saying it is going to happen as he has been for several days. I guarantee you these mets don't post these just to tease us or for the fun of it. They have enough to do without dealing with a board full of weather freaks like us.
Also starting to look like there may actually be some snow pack in place before the major push happens(if it does).

[Ed Mahmoud]

Three inches for EWG tomorrow night.


Per WRF. Might cancel school.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Three inches for EWG tomorrow night.


Per WRF. Might cancel school.

That would be amazing if we could get three inches up here! Most forecasts are currently only predicting a dusting, but if the WRF is correct then may be there is some hope after all. A nice three inch snowfall would definitely be more than enough to put me in a very happy mood!

[MGC]

Seems the last few winters is seems there are the model runs that show a massive Siberian trans polar cold wave that is predicted in the medium time frame. It turns out the models were just crying wolf. -55 this time of the year in Siberia is normal. Every now and then a small chunk of cold air breaks off and invades Conus. Even rarer is a 1989 type event. When the models all forecast another 1989 three or days less out then I will begin to panic...untill then I'll be Alfred E. Newman.....what me worry?......MGC

[Extremeweatherguy]

Tonight's 00z GFS run continues to handle the shallow arctic airmass poorly next week. It once again stalls the front in north Texas and then proceeds in lifting it back north. It also decides to rapidly weaken the arctic high beyond hour 180 and shoves it eastward toward the great lakes. Not very realistic.

I cannot wait for the day when the GFS will finally be able to handle these shallow airmasses!

[iorange55]

Tonight's 00z GFS run continues to handle the shallow arctic airmass poorly next week. It once again stalls the front in north Texas and then proceeds in lifting it back north. It also decides to rapidly weaken the arctic high beyond hour 180 and shoves it eastward toward the great lakes. Not very realistic.

I cannot wait for the day when the GFS will finally be able to handle these shallow airmasses!

So you think there is no way the GFS might be right?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Tonight's 00z GFS run continues to handle the shallow arctic airmass poorly next week. It once again stalls the front in north Texas and then proceeds in lifting it back north. It also decides to rapidly weaken the arctic high beyond hour 180 and shoves it eastward toward the great lakes. Not very realistic.

I cannot wait for the day when the GFS will finally be able to handle these shallow airmasses!

So you think there is no way the GFS might be right?

Slim chance, but highly unlikely. The GFS is generally pretty bad with handling shallow arctic airmasses, especially in the longer range, so I see little reason why history will not repeat itself this time. For now, the idea of this front stalling out in north Texas and then jumping 100s of miles back north seems like model fantasy. But I have been wrong in the past, so who knows. Hopefully by the end of this week we will have many more answers.

[vbhoutex]

Tonight's 00z GFS run continues to handle the shallow arctic airmass poorly next week. It once again stalls the front in north Texas and then proceeds in lifting it back north. It also decides to rapidly weaken the arctic high beyond hour 180 and shoves it eastward toward the great lakes. Not very realistic.

I cannot wait for the day when the GFS will finally be able to handle these shallow airmasses!

So you think there is no way the GFS might be right?

Slim chance, but highly unlikely. The GFS is generally pretty bad with handling shallow arctic airmasses, especially in the longer range, so I see little reason why history will not repeat itself this time. For now, the idea of this front stalling out in north Texas and then jumping 100s of miles back north seems like model fantasy. But I have been wrong in the past, so who knows. Hopefully by the end of this week we will have many more answers.

We've also seen this same thing happen with the models in the past with bitterly cold air masses. Some of them just do not handle them well. The last really cold blast into our area which produced the 2004 snow was doing the same thing iirc. I have to agree with EWG on this. I just don't see the front backing up like that. Modifying some? Maybe, but not doing what is shown this run.

[iorange55]

Well Folks I might have to take back what I said. Let's hope it makes it into Dallas too. it's still far out so I'll do my best and try not to get excited. I hope this comes all the way down through Dallas, I'll be furious if we're that close and we get nothing.

Oklahoma Noaa Discussion

AFTER WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY (?) INTO MONDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM HAS BETTER CHANCE OF BRINGING FREEZING RAIN
MAYBE SLEET TO PARTS OF THE STATE. DETAILS STILL UNSURE...BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

Tulsa Noaa Discussion.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A WARMING TREND ENSUE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SLY FLOW RETURNS.
FORECAST GETS QUITE INTERESTING LATE IN THE EXTENDED AS BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PLUNGE INTO THE
REGION BY MONDAY. IF THE ECMWF IS TO BELIEVED...ICY CONDITIONS COULD
BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL ONLY SHOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR
NOW (NOT COMFORTABLE INTRODUCING FREEZING RAIN THIS FAR AHEAD OF
TIME)...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

Dallas has put out their morning discussion now and they mention it! Woo. Let's all cross our fingers in hope this doesn't change.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIRMASS INVASION OF NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BEAR WATCHING ON JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE
AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SOME FREEZING RAIN.

[Kennethb]

Seems the last few winters is seems there are the model runs that show a massive Siberian trans polar cold wave that is predicted in the medium time frame. It turns out the models were just crying wolf. -55 this time of the year in Siberia is normal. Every now and then a small chunk of cold air breaks off and invades Conus. Even rarer is a 1989 type event. When the models all forecast another 1989 three or days less out then I will begin to panic...untill then I'll be Alfred E. Newman.....what me worry?......MGC

I concur. I can recall many times being in shorts and flipflops here in Baton Rouge while the north part of the country was frigid. Show the GFS solution, strong high, snowstoem on an 384 hr on an 84 hr and then we can get excited.