Mississippi gets BURIED if you take this at face value:
![Image](http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_042s.gif)
Though this differs slightly(same model):
![Image](http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_SE054.gif)
NWS Birmingham:
FIRST SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT OF THE SEASON MAY BE COMING
TOGETHER FOR NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A DEEP
500MB LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING
WITH IT MOISTURE AND LIFT. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE DEVELOPMENT
AND TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. GFS TRACKS LOW FARTHER WEST THAN ECMWF AND
NAM WHICH MEANS PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. THIS TYPE
OF COLD DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MANY TIMES FORM THERE OWN COLD POCKETS
AT THE THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THAT THE EVENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY
WHEN HEATING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE SHOWING AREA OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF 500MB UPPER LOW...IN AREA REFEREED TO AS A
TROWEL. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WITHIN IN THIS
TROWEL...BUT FOR NOW MODELS ARE KEEPING THIS AREA NORTH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE...BUT THERE COULD VERY WELL BE A PERIOD OF TIME ON
THURSDAY WHEN IT IS ALL SNOW.
and James Spann:
SNOW ON THURSDAY? The models are trending colder with a cold core upper low moving right over us Thursday. You can’t ignore the possibility of dynamic cooling with this feature, and the 18Z runs just in are showing 850 mb temperatures well below freezing. At this point we pretty much have to mention a chance of rain Thursday, changing to snow Thursday afternoon and early Thursday night before ending.
A few points to consider:
*The ground is warm and temperatures will be above freezing; so accumulation or travel problems most likely won’t be an issue if we do see a change to snow. The only way we get serious accumulation is if the snow becomes heavy under the cold core upper low, which is not out of the question. The December 1997 event comes to mind.
*Snow as a result of dynamic cooling is a very complicated set-up, and skill in forecasting this kind of event is not the best. But, we have seen enough evidence that it could very well happen this time.
*This won’t be a long lasting event since no real Arctic air is involved with the system; sunshine returns Friday with a high around 50.