2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[Ed Mahmoud]

3 hour GFS loop from PSU e-Wall


GFS predicts redevelopment of light precip near/just West of HOU area around 6 pm, moving through mainly before midnight, total liquid about a tenth, so possibly up to an inch of slush on elevated surfaces.


Canadian mesoscale, which ends basically at I-10, seems to also show a tiny bit of precip redeveloping this evening.


WRF (also from PSU e-Wall) also redvelops precip, but mainly East of HOU, favoring Golden Triangle.

[southerngale]

*edit: And I'm not too sure about that high. The temperature continued to drop all morning and has been steady at 35º for a while now.

25 minutes later and it's now down to 34º - yeah, not thinking we'll see that high of 43º

[PTrackerLA]

*edit: And I'm not too sure about that high. The temperature continued to drop all morning and has been steady at 35º for a while now.

25 minutes later and it's now down to 34º - yeah, not thinking we'll see that high of 43º

You have got be getting REAL close to getting in on some snow. Wait until this evening when the cold upper low moves overhead, and get your camera ready!

[southerngale]

OOOH.... just noticed that lowered our high to 36º and changed today's forecast to the same as tonight's! I have renewed hope. Geez... I'm a waffler.


This Afternoon: Rain likely before 3pm, then rain likely, possibly mixed with snow and sleet. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 36. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Tonight: Rain likely, possibly mixed with snow and sleet, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 33. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday: A slight chance of rain and snow before 9am, then a slight chance of rain between 9am and noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.



Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow!

[southerngale]

*edit: And I'm not too sure about that high. The temperature continued to drop all morning and has been steady at 35º for a while now.

25 minutes later and it's now down to 34º - yeah, not thinking we'll see that high of 43º

You have got be getting REAL close to getting in on some snow. Wait until this evening when the cold upper low moves overhead, and get your camera ready!

Video camera battery fully charged, extra tapes on standby, digital camera sitting right next to it. No firewood at my new house yet, but I'm ready for pics! lol

[Brent]

Good luck SG.

[Ed Mahmoud]

WRF MOS suggests almost two inches of slush tonight at BPT. May not stick to roads after all the warm weather, especially since WRF keeps surface temps above freezing, but maybe they'd delay the start of school a couple of hours in lucky Golden Triangle school districts.

[PTrackerLA]

LOL SG, I'll be anxious to hear what happens out your way as it will likely be the same weather we experience. Good luck to us all!

[CajunMama]

WRF MOS suggests almost two inches of slush tonight at BPT. May not stick to roads after all the warm weather, especially since WRF keeps surface temps above freezing, but maybe they'd delay the start of school a couple of hours in lucky Golden Triangle school districts.

hush ed. quit being a partypooper. We don't want slush. We want the good stuff!

[Ed Mahmoud]

WRF MOS suggests almost two inches of slush tonight at BPT. May not stick to roads after all the warm weather, especially since WRF keeps surface temps above freezing, but maybe they'd delay the start of school a couple of hours in lucky Golden Triangle school districts.

hush ed. quit being a partypooper. We don't want slush.

I used to live on Feu Follet, and later next to the tourist trap crawfish house on Kaliste Saloom across from the movie theater and Bob's Bar. I recall the 1997 ice storm there.


Anyhow, I don't know how to break this down, as some of this will be snow, and some rain, from the WRF output, for LFT. When the change occurs is everything- early, and two or three inches and a snow day for the all the Boudreaux's and Thibidaux's and Fontenot's of LFT, and all the Domingues and Rodrigues and Viators and Seguras of ARA, late, and just a bit of slush on the car.

Code: Select all

THU  1A 11-DEC   4.0     2.4    1015      95      97    0.19     556     544   
THU  7A 11-DEC   1.6    -1.5    1015      99      99    0.44     553     540   

First number is surface temp in Celcius, second is 850 mb temp, pressure, surface and 850 mb RH, 6 hour liquid equivalent precip, 500 mb height, 1000-500 mb thickness in DM.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Similar dilemma with GFS at LFT- 6 hour intervals, looks like some snow, but how much (ie, when does it change to snow, and then back to rain, hard to tell) from AccuWx PPV site

Code: Select all

THU 06Z 11-DEC   4.5     2.8    1015      93      84    0.09     557     545   
THU 12Z 11-DEC   2.0    -0.8    1014      98      98    0.34     554     542   
THU 18Z 11-DEC   3.7     3.3    1016      93      21    0.09     564     550   

[Ed Mahmoud]

Rob Perillo always seemed pretty sharp when I lived there. I think he is on Channel 10.


I remember he called Hurricane Danny developing the night the MCS that eventually became it crossed LFT. Well, he said models suggested tropical transition and development, and he was right. He used to be on KLFY, IIRC.

[JenBayles]

I get my west Houston forecast out of Hooks Airport. They're calling for a high of 43. So far, we've been sitting at 34 all day. Had to shut the dog door for the day because the dogs want to stand inside in the warm house and stick their heads out watching for squirrells. Not great behavior for the heating bill...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Euro looks potentially joyous for the school children of Dallas-Fort Worth area. Not so good locally, but my kids missed 7 or 8 days of school for Hurricane Ike. And after a couple of days, I sent Mrs. Mahmoud and the Kids to "Tio Lu's" house in Austin, where young Edward enjoyed Playstation, something I am avoiding buying for our house. They came back when our air conditioning did.


Still, one can frolic and roll around on the lawn in an ice storm, probably a bad idea in a hurricane.


Surface front approaching Houston, nice 850 mb relative humidity, and DFW 850 mb temps look about 6ºC, plus or minus. Seems favorable for some ice.

Tuesday morning school day set up?


Wednesday it continues?



I'm not completely abandoning hope for HOU based on that, the front does look to pass us, but the cold air will be very shallow here.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW TX

THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE QUITE A
BIT IN THE EXTENDED REGARDING A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE RED RIVER AND THEN STALLS IT FOR A
COUPLE DAYS. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE DENSE 1050 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IT HAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
FRONT THROUGH...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES OF AS MUCH AS
20-30 DEGREES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN HOW MUCH TROUBLE THE GFS HAS HAD WITH THESE
AIRMASSES...HAVE SIDED HEAVILY WITH THE ECMWF. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE PRE-FRONTAL WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY
POST-FRONTAL OVERRUNNING. FREEZING RAIN MAY BE OF CONCERN IF
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast/city_e.html?nt-24&unit=i

If Arctic plunge does come it will be very cold, look at the link for YellowKnife up in the Northwest Territories, now thats some mighty cold weather, and that's the 1050 High that SUPPOST to come south. BURRRR -29 for the high

[jasons2k]

A little precip showing-up/developing to our west now. Also a few sprinkles (all liquid) falling here. Bears watching...

[JenBayles]

Houston radar appears to show more light precip developing to our west and southwest. Hmmmm....

[JenBayles]

OOPS! Sorry jasons - I missed your Bear Watch when I posted.

[HouTXmetro]

Houston radar appears to show more light precip developing to our west and southwest. Hmmmm....

Precip really picking up to our west!!! Will it be frozen?

http://www.accuweather.com/radar-large. ... te&large=1

[southerngale]

All aboard!