Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

[cheezyWXguy]

So what does wxman57 have to say about the ice storm next week?

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z GFS is the coldest run yet. It pushes the freezing line well into Texas and brings the -10C line into northern Oklahoma next week. It is also colder at the upper levels too, bringing the 0C 850mb line and the 540 thickness line down to near OKC at times (meaning perhaps some periods of snow or sleet up here instead of just freezing rain).

[iorange55]

The 00z GFS is the coldest run yet. It pushes the freezing line well into Texas and brings the -10C line into northern Oklahoma next week. It is also colder at the upper levels too, bringing the 0C 850mb line and the 540 thickness line down to near OKC at times (meaning perhaps some periods of snow or sleet up here instead of just freezing rain).

Still just freezing rain likely for us huh? Nasty, still looking forward to it though

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z GFS is the coldest run yet. It pushes the freezing line well into Texas and brings the -10C line into northern Oklahoma next week. It is also colder at the upper levels too, bringing the 0C 850mb line and the 540 thickness line down to near OKC at times (meaning perhaps some periods of snow or sleet up here instead of just freezing rain).

Still just freezing rain likely for us huh? Nasty, still looking forward to it though

Yes, if this run is correct, then it will be mostly just freezing rain for Dallas.

[cheezyWXguy]

The 00z GFS is the coldest run yet. It pushes the freezing line well into Texas and brings the -10C line into northern Oklahoma next week. It is also colder at the upper levels too, bringing the 0C 850mb line and the 540 thickness line down to near OKC at times (meaning perhaps some periods of snow or sleet up here instead of just freezing rain).

Still just freezing rain likely for us huh? Nasty, still looking forward to it though

Yes, if this run is correct, then it will be mostly just freezing rain for Dallas.

Im happy with that...freezing rain means no school. If we get some snow mixed in ill be even happier, but for now im satisfied, as long as we get enough to cancel school

[HarlequinBoy]

Any ice from LR to Memphis?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Any ice from LR to Memphis?

Definitely appears possible.

[jinftl]

Freezing rain is like no-alcohol beer...bad for you (still get a beer gut) without the fun...snow is a world apart...and honestly, having seen some ice storms growing up in boston, there is nothing more dangerous to be driving on...a fluffy snowpacked road is so much safer than a sheet of ice.

The 00z GFS is the coldest run yet. It pushes the freezing line well into Texas and brings the -10C line into northern Oklahoma next week. It is also colder at the upper levels too, bringing the 0C 850mb line and the 540 thickness line down to near OKC at times (meaning perhaps some periods of snow or sleet up here instead of just freezing rain).

Still just freezing rain likely for us huh? Nasty, still looking forward to it though

[iorange55]

Freezing rain is like no-alcohol beer...bad for you (still get a beer gut) without the fun...snow is a world apart...and honestly, having seen some ice storms growing up in boston, there is nothing more dangerous to be driving on...a fluffy snowpacked road is so much safer than a sheet of ice.

I take what I can get, that might sound selfish but whatever. As long as you don't have to drive in it you can have fun in ice. Last time we had a ice storm here, the day was full of sliding down golf courses and playing ice kickball on the street [ was not a smart idea ]

[cheezyWXguy]

Freezing rain is like no-alcohol beer...bad for you (still get a beer gut) without the fun...snow is a world apart...and honestly, having seen some ice storms growing up in boston, there is nothing more dangerous to be driving on...a fluffy snowpacked road is so much safer than a sheet of ice.

I take what I can get, that might sound selfish but whatever. As long as you don't have to drive in it you can have fun in ice. Last time we had a ice storm here, the day was full of sliding down golf courses and playing ice kickball on the street [ was not a smart idea ]

I'm with you on that. If theres a sheet of ice on the road in Dallas, then all schools and businesses are likely closed, meaning theres no reason to drive, so why do it? Just chill at home and enjoy your day off. (pun intended...lol). The only problem is when the power goes out...that can be bad. But with wet, heavy snow, the same risk also presents itself.

[jinftl]

Latest readings....looks like winter weather is winding down some...

REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1100 PM CST WED DEC 10 2008

BEAUMONT LGT RAIN 34
JASPER LGT SNOW 37
LAKE CHARLES LGT RAIN 37
LAFAYETTE LGT RAIN 39
HOUSTON BUSH CLOUDY 33 (up 1 deg)
HOUSTON HOBBY CLOUDY 34 (up 2 deg)
COLLEGE STAT CLOUDY 34
LUFKIN FRZ RAIN 32
SHREVEPORT LGT RAIN 37
BATON ROUGE LGT RAIN 41
N.O. INTL ARPT LGT RAIN 46
DFW AIRPORT PTCLDY 34

[HarlequinBoy]

The "ice storm" next week kind of reminds me of January 2007 (I think it was). The cold air was too shallow to blast past the Ozarks and dammed up along it. A crippling ice storm ensued across Oklahoma and southwest Missouri.

[southerngale]

Latest readings....looks like winter weather is winding down some...

REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1100 PM CST WED DEC 10 2008

BEAUMONT LGT RAIN 34
JASPER LGT SNOW 37
LAKE CHARLES LGT RAIN 37
LAFAYETTE LGT RAIN 39
HOUSTON BUSH CLOUDY 33 (up 1 deg)
HOUSTON HOBBY CLOUDY 34 (up 2 deg)
COLLEGE STAT CLOUDY 34
LUFKIN FRZ RAIN 32
SHREVEPORT LGT RAIN 37
BATON ROUGE LGT RAIN 41
N.O. INTL ARPT LGT RAIN 46
DFW AIRPORT PTCLDY 34

The Beaumont report is actually at the Beaumont/Port Arthur airport, which is located in Nederland, south of Beaumont. I can confirm it is snowing/sleeting just west of Beaumont at my house and in NW Beaumont, at my sister's house and my parent's house... at least it was about 15 or 20 minutes ago, when I talked to them last. Just a FYI. I hate that Beaumont's "official weather" isn't even in Beaumont.

[HarlequinBoy]

Have you gotten any accumulations SG?


I heard on TWC that there was about an inch in Baytown earlier.

[iorange55]

Boo! I hope this changes, it'll suck if it's just cold rain!!!

.WITH COLD AIR QUICKLY MOVING IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CLASSIC FREEZING RAIN EVENT
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND ENDING LATE TUESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR FZRA WILL BE THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...I.E.
FROM GRAHAM TO SULPHUR SPRINGS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...AS MODELS GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...THE FREEZING LINE COULD BE
ADJUSTED FARTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH A COLD RAIN FOR
THE METROPLEX SOUTHWARD. HAVE UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE FOR THIS
PERIOD IN ANTICIPATION OF CLOUD COVER AND OVERRUNNING.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Looking at all the overnight NWS forecast discussions, all the Texas offices appear to be on board for a cold regime next week as the GFS has finally given them the go ahead to change their forecasts. What's new?

All except NWS Houston

AN INCH PWATS. A MORE MILD AND WET
PATTERN SEEMS TO BE THE TREND IN THE EXTENDED MODEL RUNS...KEEPING
SE TX UNDER RETURN FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AND BRINGING ANOTHER CF TO
THE COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. ATTM...NO COLD CORE UPPER LOWS AND NO
85H TEMPS LT 9C SO SIMPLY HAVE -TS/SHRA IN WX GRIDS. THUS...LOOKS
LIKE ONE WILL HAVE TO BREAK OUT THE PHOTOS OF LAST NIGHT TO SEE A
WHITE SOUTHEASTERN TX. 31

[gboudx]

Freezing rain is like no-alcohol beer...bad for you (still get a beer gut) without the fun...snow is a world apart...and honestly, having seen some ice storms growing up in boston, there is nothing more dangerous to be driving on...a fluffy snowpacked road is so much safer than a sheet of ice.

I take what I can get, that might sound selfish but whatever. As long as you don't have to drive in it you can have fun in ice. Last time we had a ice storm here, the day was full of sliding down golf courses and playing ice kickball on the street [ was not a smart idea ]

I'm with you on that. If theres a sheet of ice on the road in Dallas, then all schools and businesses are likely closed, meaning theres no reason to drive, so why do it? Just chill at home and enjoy your day off. (pun intended...lol). The only problem is when the power goes out...that can be bad. But with wet, heavy snow, the same risk also presents itself.

Yeah wait until you're old enough to actually have a job where you have to drive on it and go to work. Then you'll see how much fun freezing rain and ice is. Praying your car doesn't lose traction or some other idiot doesn't slide into you and then you have to deal with getting the car appraised and the body shop and all the other headaches that go along with it. Oh and "why do it"? Because you have a job and a responsibility that's why. Not all businesses close, and what if the ice starts AFTER you got to work?

I swear, I'll never understand people who like ice storms and hurricanes. Destruction is fun.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest NWS forecast for OKC looks downright nasty...

Sunday Night: A chance of rain or freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday: A slight chance of freezing rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: A slight chance of freezing rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: A slight chance of freezing rain and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday Night: A slight chance of rain or freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: A slight chance of rain or freezing rain. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

[Johnny]

I'd expect your temps to be lowered up that way EWG in the next couple of days.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 12Z GFS does not look encouraging, it seems to shunt the coldest air Eastward, and develops a low in the lee of the Rockies that returns the flow from the South shortly after the cold air reaches Texas.



Not even OKC gets cold and precip together.


For people wanting school cancellations in DFW or OKC, gotta hope usual GFS error on shallow cold airmasses and surface fronts is worse than usual.


I guess those that have to drive to work even when the weather is bad, they're hoping the GFS is correct.