#52 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Dec 13, 2008 12:07 am
Looking at the 0z GFS not much change to the first 7 days as it pertains to denver and the front range. Cold air seems to get reinforced toward end of week. Looks to be decent chances of snow from Sunday morning well into daytime Tuesday in the urban corridor. With the cold temps I definately feel any accum in that period would be very fluffy, and lots of that steady hard to accumulate light snow. GFS a little more liberal with pops...but then I have read that NAM has had that bias in this area for a while now, to keep things too dry.
GFS tried to reinforce the cold air into the weekend and the air looks pretty cold, but GFS hangs it up over the northern rockies and northern plaines. Will see if it gets hung up or not or slides on down like this one did. Finally leading into Christmas week, GFS stays pretty chilly until a bubble of heat starts to come up from the SW toward Christmas eve. Looks like a snow chance in the monday/Tuesday period, and then the shorts weather moves in for christmas.
I will say that I am little surprised at the lack of QPF produced over the front range given the MULTITUDE of lows that GFS has moving over northern new mexico into kansas. That would normally lead to good upslope flow. In fact the storm path would seem ideal for high front range snows. But for whatever reason, and I am not a map expert, most of them seem fairly dry for the front range. Perhaps they just arent deep enough of sucking up enough moisture.
Again...I have southerners coming next weekend that expect to see snow on the ground for christmas...so heres hoping that these little systems combined with very cold days ahead maintains the snow on the ground. I figure if the GFS were 100% right until next sunday...regardless of a christmas eve warmup there would still be a little snow on the ground.
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