2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[jasons2k]

Front has passed through here as well - I liked it better yesterday when I was in short sleeves

[Ed Mahmoud]

DW Hooks

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Latest 10 AM (15) Dec 15 42.1 (5.6) 41.0 (5.0) 30.2 (1022) NNW 14 mist
 9 AM (14) Dec 15 46.0 (7.8) 45.0 (7.2) 30.14 (1020) NW 15 light rain; mist
 8 AM (13) Dec 15 57 (14) 57 (14) 30.09 (1018) NW 15 mist
 7 AM (12) Dec 15 60 (16) 60 (16) 30.06 (1017) SE 3 fog


60º to 42ºF in 3 hours.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If the temp just stays steady 3 more hours, which seems possible, the 12Z NAM raw numbers from my pay-per-view AccuWx site would bust by over 3ºC at DW Hooks.


Will that 3ºC error pattern hold over???- Could be the difference between a normal commute, and maybe schools and work starting 2 or 3 hours late!

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                                            7A DEC15
                 SFC     850     SFC     SFC     700    6/12     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     HR      HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
MON  7A 15-DEC  15.9    10.5    1018      92      11             580     565   
MON  1P 15-DEC   8.3    11.1    1024      75      38    0.02     583     564   
MON  7P 15-DEC   5.8    11.8    1024      81      35    0.04     582     563   
TUE  1A 16-DEC   3.5    12.0    1025      88      31    0.02     584     564   
TUE  7A 16-DEC   2.2    12.2    1023      91      48    0.03     583     565   
TUE  1P 16-DEC   3.8    12.6    1023      85      49    0.01     584     566   
TUE  7P 16-DEC   4.5    12.6    1020      89      51    0.03     583     568   

[Extremeweatherguy]

If the temp just stays steady 3 more hours, which seems possible, the 12Z NAM raw numbers from my pay-per-view AccuWx site would bust by over 3ºC at DW Hooks.


Will that 3ºC error pattern hold over???- Could be the difference between a normal commute, and maybe schools and work starting 2 or 3 hours late!

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                                            7A DEC15
                 SFC     850     SFC     SFC     700    6/12     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     HR      HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
MON  7A 15-DEC  15.9    10.5    1018      92      11             580     565   
MON  1P 15-DEC   8.3    11.1    1024      75      38    0.02     583     564   
MON  7P 15-DEC   5.8    11.8    1024      81      35    0.04     582     563   
TUE  1A 16-DEC   3.5    12.0    1025      88      31    0.02     584     564   
TUE  7A 16-DEC   2.2    12.2    1023      91      48    0.03     583     565   
TUE  1P 16-DEC   3.8    12.6    1023      85      49    0.01     584     566   
TUE  7P 16-DEC   4.5    12.6    1020      89      51    0.03     583     568   

Based on how the models have been busting up here in Oklahoma, it wouldn't surprise me.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If the temp just stays steady 3 more hours, which seems possible, the 12Z NAM raw numbers from my pay-per-view AccuWx site would bust by over 3ºC at DW Hooks.


Will that 3ºC error pattern hold over???- Could be the difference between a normal commute, and maybe schools and work starting 2 or 3 hours late!

Code: Select all

                                            7A DEC15
                 SFC     850     SFC     SFC     700    6/12     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     HR      HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
MON  7A 15-DEC  15.9    10.5    1018      92      11             580     565   
MON  1P 15-DEC   8.3    11.1    1024      75      38    0.02     583     564   
MON  7P 15-DEC   5.8    11.8    1024      81      35    0.04     582     563   
TUE  1A 16-DEC   3.5    12.0    1025      88      31    0.02     584     564   
TUE  7A 16-DEC   2.2    12.2    1023      91      48    0.03     583     565   
TUE  1P 16-DEC   3.8    12.6    1023      85      49    0.01     584     566   
TUE  7P 16-DEC   4.5    12.6    1020      89      51    0.03     583     568   

Based on how the models have been busting up here in Oklahoma, it wouldn't surprise me.

18Z, not 12Z, but you get the idea...

Re-read original post, it was ok.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

At 9 AM

69 in Corpus

43 in Victoria


This front means business. Big busts accross the state in progress. Live by the GFS, die by the GFS.

[Tireman4]

Today: A 30 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 43 by 5pm. North wind around 15 mph.


Umm it is 44 now. Busting the bad boys of model huggin .

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Front coming thru NW Corpus right now. Should be interesting to see how fast the temps fall.

[mysterymachinebl]

Yeah, NWS called for a low of 35 here last night. It was 26 when I woke up.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Cold air is awfully shallow, maybe 2000 feet or so per 6 am Fort Worth sounding

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS 18Z temp for Hooks is 7.1C, with an overnight low of 6ºC, and 0.09 inches of precip overnight.


It is 5ºC now, assuming temps stay constant, about a 2 degree error. It is not really rigorous to extrapolate that 2º error to tomorrow morning, but if we did, temps still above freezing.

No delayed start to school.

Not 18Z yet at Dallas, looks like error there will be about 3º, well behind the front. But even a 3º correction would not produce freezing drizzle.

Semi-unscientifically, I can say I doubt there will be freezing drizzle and extra sleep tomorrow morning, but I remain a glass half full kind of optimist.

WRF does show freezing drizzle for DFW, however. GFS is cold enough, but has no measurable precip until after the AM rush has started, 0.02 between 6 am and noon.

WRF's freezing drizzle is 0.12 inches (maybe even light freezing rain) before the morning commute, which might delay school openings.

But I think HOU area students need to go to bed on time tonight.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Nice 20 degreee drop within an hour in progress down here. A weather station in a little community just a few miles to west of me went from 68 to 50 in 50 minutes.

[serenata09]

Updated Austin forecast with mention of Freezing Rain tonight and tomorrow morning.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Austin&state=TX&site=EWX&textField1=30.267&textField2=-97.743

[ColdFusion]

Fort Worth Special Weather Statement

109 PM CST MON DEC 15 2008

...PATCHY...VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...FREEZING RAIN...OR SLEET
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OVERRUN THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR ACROSS MAINLY THOSE
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. VERY SPOTTY...LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN HAS OCCURRED...BUT NO ACCUMULATION
HAS OCCURRED ON AREA ROADWAYS...THUS TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH LOCALIZED ICING ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ARE
POSSIBLE...SINCE THESE SURFACES ARE ELEVATED AND NOT WARMED BY THE GROUND
FROM THE RECENT WARM WEATHER THIS PAST WEEKEND.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUES TO MONITOR TRENDS REGARDING VERY
LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING CLOSELY WITH REGARDS
TO ANY FUTURE ADVISORIES...IF NEEDED.

[Ed Mahmoud]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
544 PM CST MON DEC 15 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-160145-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
544 PM CST MON DEC 15 2008

.NOW...
WIDELY SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER
SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME ICY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. IN ADDITION...NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL KEEP WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE TEENS.

$$

82/JLD

Don't see any reporting stations reporting anything, but temps are below freezing, and radar shows some light returns...

[iorange55]

I can tell you there has been some freezing rain and some sleet in dallas and downtown dallas. it's causing a lot of trouble on bridges in Dallas.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I can tell you there has been some freezing rain and some sleet in dallas and downtown dallas. it's causing a lot of trouble on bridges in Dallas.

Live traffic cam action?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I can tell you there has been some freezing rain and some sleet in dallas and downtown dallas. it's causing a lot of trouble on bridges in Dallas.

Live traffic cam action?

This is not a live cam, but it does update every 5 minutes or so. Looks like the bridges are pretty slick around Dallas...

http://www.wfaa.com/sharedcontent/dws/i ... aahuge.jpg

[iorange55]

I can tell you there has been some freezing rain and some sleet in dallas and downtown dallas. it's causing a lot of trouble on bridges in Dallas.

Live traffic cam action?

This is not a live cam, but it does update every 5 minutes or so. Looks like the bridges are pretty slick around Dallas...

http://www.wfaa.com/sharedcontent/dws/i ... aahuge.jpg

If you go here you might be able to see something. The news just now showed a big truck that slid off the road and rolled over a few times.

http://dfwtraffic.dot.state.tx.us/

[jasons2k]

This is shaping-up to be a real mess for the Metroplex. Precip increasing and temps will into the 20's. Yikes!