The reason for the warmth in Florida is due to a combination of low and H5 ridges blocking anything from the north and west from pushing into the region. It's the H5 ridge I would like to point out based off of the 12Z GFS runs. You can see it extending from the Eastern Pacific all the way through the GOM and into the Bahamas even at 72 hours. Folks its not moving for at least 7 days (through this weekend). In other words winter has left Florida for quite a while.
Then the GFS hints at the H5 ridge breaking down and shifting east into the Bahamas at 150 hours (Day 6 or next Mon.).
This setup would allow a weak front to push through Florida and fizzle out over South Florida. You can see the surface graphic at 150 hours showing the front pushing into Central Florida
But then that H5 ridge builds up again early next week. For example here is 228 hours (Day 8 or Wed. of next week)
Even all the way out at 384 hours or 16 days from now that ridge is holding strong over Southern Florida the Bahamas and Cuba.
Bottom-line: Looks like Florida and especially Southern Florida will see warm temperatures (running at least 5-7 degrees above normal, maybe as much as 10 degrees above normal) through the end of the year. I envision relatively nice conditions except for Sun/Mon timeframe with some scattered clouds and isolated showers then highs mostly in the 70s (80s south) and lows in the 60s (70s south). At this time Christmas looks to be relatively warm across peninsula Florida.
Note the GFS loses accuracy beyond 144 hours so we'll have to monitor it to see if it decides to break down the ridge in the long-term.
