MED: Cyclone Near the Balearic Islands

[Pedro Fernández]

Once again, we've got another possible case of MEDICANE over the Islas Baleares today:

[Derek Ortt]

looks more like a naked circulation

[Pedro Fernández]

Yep, by the moment.............

Cloud pattern is not yet well defined, but GFS model is forecasting a shallow warming of the core of the low, and windshear is around 5-10 KT (CIMSS). Some tropical characteristics seem to be appearing little by little...

[DanieleItalyRm]

An increase in tropical like cyclones?






yesterday on the Balearic Islands:







Today:



























Warm core..

[Derek Ortt]

that looks like it MIGHT be a TD or a weak TS. Does not look frontal based upon those sat images

[DanieleItalyRm]

At this moment

[DanieleItalyRm]

[DanieleItalyRm]

From Sat24 today night:







In This moment:

[DanieleItalyRm]

[Derek Ortt]

it probably was a tropical storm looking at the sats. Likely is ET now though

[Crostorm]

[senorpepr]

I'm still not convinced it was tropical. Observational data doesn't really lean in that direction. Just the remnant low off of the tail end of an occlusion. It's a pretty common feature this time of year.

[DanieleItalyRm]

It's a pretty common feature this time of year.

If is it a pretty common,you have another example of these cyclones with eyes,high convection in the center and warm core?
many thanks..

[Derek Ortt]

I'm still not convinced it was tropical. Observational data doesn't really lean in that direction. Just the remnant low off of the tail end of an occlusion. It's a pretty common feature this time of year.

We would have to look at the in situ upper air data (if there is any). However, from the sats, we do have fairly deep convection near the center and this is associated with tightly wrapping spiral bands. If this were non-tropical, wouldn't we see the convection farther from the center? Possibly subtropical, but I am having a hard time seeing ET, unless there is some data I have not seen

[DanieleItalyRm]

Many times some maps show cold cores while other, more detailed, display warm cores;
sometimes maps indicate wind of 30 Knotes instead of 50 knotes
(the Quickscat have only 1 or 2 passas for day),and levels of pressure which in fact are much lower.
Basically European maps can't show the details of those small systems,
as they are not up to look at the basic elements of tropical systems or tropical like sistems.

K.Emanuel: cutoff cold low is an ideal embryon in which a tropical-like cyclone can be produced.

Radar Sardinia (Sardegna-Italia)