2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[zaqxsw75050]

Flurries outside. That was a surprise. Actually have some dusting on elevated surface.

[vbhoutex]

David - wasn't that the year of the "Christmas Freeze" when people who went out of town came back to flooded homes because their pipes burst? (I'm getting way too old...)

Ed - thanks for the info about how the models work. Much appreciated.

Yes, and we had the same thing in 1983 too. I remember my dad and I up in our attic thawing out the one place we had a frozen pipe(a pipe joint right next to a soffit vent)during that one. We were in a different house for the 1989 freeze and I had the pipes all wrapped long before there was a threat after learning from the first one. I do remember, both times, passing by homes where people were apparently gone and seeing water coming out from under garage doors etc. IIRC there was actually millions in damage from both the 1983 and 1989 freezes.

[JenBayles]

That's right! How could I forget about 1983?! I remember my dad climbing around in the attic with a hair dryer for quite a while early one morning while my mom kvetched non-stop about the lack of water. (Nothing compared to her mouth in Ike's aftermath!) He managed to save the pipes though. The joys of home ownership, huh? Wish I could warm up this morning...

[JenBayles]

I see we're supposed to have a high of 43 and doubt that's going to happen. In 4 hours we've gone from 37 to 39 now at noon. I'm talking myself into putting off errands until tomorrow... or the next day...

[TrekkerCC]

Well, It is currently 27F here after a morning low of 23F. Looks like the cold dome is starting to erode a bit, but we might only get into the 30s to lower 40s tomorrow. Last night we had light sleet and then very light freezing drizzle for awhile, and it was interesting. Today, it appears to be dry, but there are radar echos from the west. NWS Ft. Worth discussion hints that the core of the next arctic shot might go eastward: "THE EXTENDED FORECASTS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER STRONG FRONT LATE SATURDAY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH CARRYING THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR EASTWARD." It will be interesting to see how the next arctic intrusion evolves. Even they suggest we might be a big glancing blow with some very cold nights/days over the weekend. It is not over yet by any means.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Source of light potentially freezing precip that could delay school and work Tuesday morning in Houston.

Maybe

Before the magic time, jet streak coming round the trough...


As the magic time approaches, jet streak ejects Northeastward.


Whoo-Hooo, 130 knots


At the magic time, subtle kink in 700 mb heights over Chihuahua, and some relative humidity to boot...


Voila, maybe enough freezing drizzle/light rain to sleep in...

[Ed Mahmoud]

This image makes it a tad more apparent something like a coastal trough will try to set up as well.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Calm winds and slowly rising dewpoints along the I-35 corridor suggest the cold air advection is about over. DFW is still below freezing, and the sun is setting soon. So the icy mist may not quite be done yet.



Now, its wait until next week, and hope more models come around to a kilometer thick layer of cold air and enough sleet to give me an excuse to go in late next week.

[srainhoutx]

HGX has some "interesting" thoughts today....

THE NEXT MAJOR WX CHANGE LOOKS TO OCCUR AS WE HIT THE WINTER
SOLSTICE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING THAT THIS
WILL BE ANOTHER FAIRLY SHALLOW AND VERY COLD AIR MASS INTRUSION.
ASSUMING THAT THIS IS A NEAR-SFC COLD/DRY AIR MASS...NOTICED THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT/LOWEST 925-700 MB THICKNESS VALUES (PER ECWMF)
ARE SHUNTED EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD KEEP THE COLDEST AIR
AWAY FROM THE REGION BUT...UPON FURTHER INSPECTION OF THE SFC
PRESSURE BEHAVIOR...THE GFS/EURO SOLUTIONS QUICKLY TAKE THE
BOUNDARY DUE-SOUTHERN TREK TOWARDS THE COAST. LEANING TOWARDS MORE
OF A COLDER CANADIAN PLAINS AIR MASS (OVER SNOW PACK) AND A 1040
MB HIGH DIVING DOWN THE CHUTE. THUS...HAVE DECREASED TDS QUITE
QUICKLY AND ONLY BROUGHT SUNDAY`S MAXIMUMS UP INTO THE LOWER 40S
FOR MANY FAR INTERIOR REGIONS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THIS
AGGRESSIVE FROPA. AS OF NOW...IT LOOKS AS IF BEST MOISTURE IS OUT-
OF-PHASE WITH THE COLDEST AIR SO HAVE LEFT ANY WINTRY MIX OUT OF
THE FORECAST. ANY WINTRY THREAT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO A COUPLE OF
DAYS AGO...WHEN FREEZING RAIN WAS CAUSING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA REACHES. IN ACCOUNTING FOR
LINGERING CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY...HAVE KEPT DAILY HIGHS ON THE
COOL SIDE OF 50F...WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 50S TUESDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS TIMED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY
NOT PACKING QUITE THE COLD AIR PUNCH IN RELATION TO WHAT IS BEHIND
SUNDAY`S FROPA. AS THIS FORECAST ENDS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY...WILL
HAPPILY DEFER TO FUTURE SHIFTS ON WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL BE ON THE
WINTER SIDE OF THIS ONGOING TWO-DAY SEASONAL FLIP FLOP PATTERN OF
LATE. 31

Amarillo offered this little "nugget" concerning the Christmas Eve front...snipet...

SECOND...AND POSSIBLY COLDER FRONT...IS THEN PROGGED TO BLOW
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY. GFS SUGGESTS 850MB TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE -14 TO -16 DEGREES C RANGE...AND EVEN PUSH THE FRONT
CLEAR TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST INTO THE DAY
8 RANGE...SO DID NOT GET TOO CRAZY ON TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK. BUT THIS
WILL CERTAINLY BE A FRONT TO WATCH FOR COLD AIR.

[jinftl]

CPC Outlook through 1st day of 2009!!! Trending slightly warmer than yesterday. Maps and Discussion excerpts follow below.







NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EST THU DEC 18 2008

TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN IN DEPICTING THE STRONG RIDGE BETWEEN HAWAII AND ALASKA, A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS,
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH, AND THE RIDGE OVER UK. TELECONNECTIONS OFF OF THE STRONG
POSITIVE ANOMALIES IN THE PACIFIC AND THE UK AREA ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE WEST AND THE WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH. THIS GIVES MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL RESULTS, WHICH AGAIN TODAY ARE QUITE SIMILAR.

THE MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN WARMTH SHOWN IN THE VARIOUS
FORECAST TOOLS. WITH THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN CONTRIBUTING
TO THE VERY LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST EXITING THE
EAST COAST AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD ON CHRISTMAS EVE, IT IS
REASONABLE TO SHRINK THE AREA OF FORECAST ANOMALOUS COLD.

ALSO, THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST AS WELL AS THE INDIVIDUAL DAILY FORECASTS DO SHOW SOME
EXPANSION NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS THIS WEEK, THE FORECAST TOOLS SHOWING THE LEAST
AMOUNT OF WARMTH FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS ARE FAVORED. ABOVE-NORMAL
SNOW COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN MANY OF THE USUAL FORECASTS
INDICATE. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE FORECASTS MADE
EARLIER THIS WEEK, WITH THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK CONTINUING ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

FOR WEEK 2, MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN, WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PATTERN, WITH THE LARGE TROUGH
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE WEST. THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BRING ABOVE-NORMAL RAIN OR SNOW TO MUCH OF THE WEST AND THE EAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1 TO 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

CPC Outlook through 1st day of 2009!!! Trending slightly warmer than yesterday. Maps and Discussion excerpts follow below.







NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EST THU DEC 18 2008

TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN IN DEPICTING THE STRONG RIDGE BETWEEN HAWAII AND ALASKA, A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS,
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH, AND THE RIDGE OVER UK. TELECONNECTIONS OFF OF THE STRONG
POSITIVE ANOMALIES IN THE PACIFIC AND THE UK AREA ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE WEST AND THE WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH. THIS GIVES MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL RESULTS, WHICH AGAIN TODAY ARE QUITE SIMILAR.

THE MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN WARMTH SHOWN IN THE VARIOUS
FORECAST TOOLS. WITH THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN CONTRIBUTING
TO THE VERY LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST EXITING THE
EAST COAST AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD ON CHRISTMAS EVE, IT IS
REASONABLE TO SHRINK THE AREA OF FORECAST ANOMALOUS COLD.

ALSO, THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST AS WELL AS THE INDIVIDUAL DAILY FORECASTS DO SHOW SOME
EXPANSION NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS THIS WEEK, THE FORECAST TOOLS SHOWING THE LEAST
AMOUNT OF WARMTH FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS ARE FAVORED. ABOVE-NORMAL
SNOW COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN MANY OF THE USUAL FORECASTS
INDICATE. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE FORECASTS MADE
EARLIER THIS WEEK, WITH THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK CONTINUING ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

FOR WEEK 2, MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN, WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PATTERN, WITH THE LARGE TROUGH
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE WEST. THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BRING ABOVE-NORMAL RAIN OR SNOW TO MUCH OF THE WEST AND THE EAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1 TO 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

They had us above normal for this week a few weeks ago. Ain't going to happen.

[Portastorm]

Yeah CC, those CPC outlooks are pretty much useless. One is much better off looking at the GFS and Euro ensembles and getting a sense of what they suggest. I've also read some posts here and on other boards from pro mets who dismiss the CPC outlooks as lightweight at best.

[CaptinCrunch]

CPC outlooks are for the most part done by my 6 year old in kindergarden, then faxed to the CPC center for posting. I almost denied these do to the complete lack of blue's on the bottom for temps, and reds for precip. I will get this straightened out by next posting, or no M&M's.

[jinftl]

Not a paid employee of the CPC or any vested interest like that...and will be more than happy to label the outlooks as garbage...but they nailed the warmth and ridge over florida now when many were using GFS runs to call for a Dec 1989 repeat...and called for the trough and winter precip over the southwest more than a week ago.

If NWS Houston forecast verifies...Houston is about 5 deg above normal for the period today through christmas...as the CPC Oulook 10 days ago showed for this same period...it all comes down to what 'averages out'....a cold day or 2 doesn't mean a period won't be above normal...http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=hgx&map.x=212&map.y=152


CPC uses same models you mention...additional excerpts from today's discussion (ready and willing to label this all as garbage...and curious to learn what those who dismiss CPC outlooks look to for unbiased guidance):


TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 60 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.

TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE THE KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS).

PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION TOOL, THE GFS ENSEMBLE, AND DAILY FORECASTS FROM THE RECENT OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS RUNS.

FOR WEEK 2, MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN, WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PATTERN, WITH THE LARGE TROUGH
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE WEST. THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BRING ABOVE-NORMAL RAIN OR SNOW TO MUCH OF THE WEST AND THE EAST.

Yeah CC, those CPC outlooks are pretty much useless. One is much better off looking at the GFS and Euro ensembles and getting a sense of what they suggest. I've also read some posts here and on other boards from pro mets who dismiss the CPC outlooks as lightweight at best.

[Portastorm]

To be fair, I am not aware of any professional meteorologist outside of Accuweather's Joe Bastardi who was referencing December 1989 about this week. The rest of the "chatter" came from weather weenies on our board and others. And I also recall plenty of cynics too who poo-poo'ed the idea of pipe-busting cold so it wasn't an entire congregation saying "amen" if you know what I mean.

I just wouldn't get too attached to those CPC outlooks, jinftl. I feel one is much better informed by examining the ensembles.

[jinftl]

Fair enough...i think your approach would lead to the most accurate results in the long run. Along the same lines, the CPC Outlooks are dismissed way too quickly...even with the analysis using the same models people chat about here. I know there is always the 'agree if you like the forecast, disagree if you don't' factor to contend with, but...at the very least...i like the discussions they provide because often it is hard for a pure amateur like me to know how to read a map of a model run and infer a forecast from it. It is also interesting to see that the pros do struggle with conflicting data, models, etc...something they have no problem mentioning in the daily discussion they provide...and from those incongrous pieces, they put a forecast out there.

But I am 100% open to additional, alternate sources that provide not only a graphical outlook, but even more...the discussion behind it.

To be fair, I am not aware of any professional meteorologist outside of Accuweather's Joe Bastardi who was referencing December 1989 about this week. The rest of the "chatter" came from weather weenies on our board and others. And I also recall plenty of cynics too who poo-poo'ed the idea of pipe-busting cold so it wasn't an entire congregation saying "amen" if you know what I mean.

I just wouldn't get too attached to those CPC outlooks, jinftl. I feel one is much better informed by examining the ensembles.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Note manly packing of isobars and 510 dm thickness line diving through Minnesota per NAM. Note also the front at 850 mb seems to hang up just South of Houston even as the surface high pushes out into the Gulf.


NAM Central US 84 hour loop

The surface pressures indicate flow barely has any component of North to it at all at 84 hours, and no precip has started yet, so I still don't see any work delaying weather, but it is reassuring to know decent humidity is only a few (dozen) miles away.

I know it is a shallow air mass, and its the NAM, but the 850 mb freezing line never clears the area, so maybe we'll avoid too harsh of a freeze.

[jasons2k]

To be fair, I am not aware of any professional meteorologist outside of Accuweather's Joe Bastardi who was referencing December 1989 about this week. The rest of the "chatter" came from weather weenies on our board and others. And I also recall plenty of cynics too who poo-poo'ed the idea of pipe-busting cold so it wasn't an entire congregation saying "amen" if you know what I mean.

I just wouldn't get too attached to those CPC outlooks, jinftl. I feel one is much better informed by examining the ensembles.

To be accurate (and sometimes accuracy isn't always "fair"), back around December 4th, there was more than one pro met out there floating the idea of a 1989 or 1983 type event for mid-December. And of course, the usual suspects jumped on the bandwagon confidently declaring 'don't worry, the cold will come' and the usual skeptics saying 'not so fast, we've heard this before.'

But to be fair, it happens every year. And so far, the skeptics have been right every single time

[Portastorm]

Dang it, Jason ... why are you always messing my arguments up with facts and stuff like that?!

You ... you ... you Mike Leach lover you!

[jasons2k]

Go Tech!

What's ironic is that I'm wearing a Texas Longhorns T-shirt today. Yes, I lost a bet a few years ago and had to wear a UT t-shirt to work one day. I kept the T-shirt for yardwork days, etc.