Denver LACK OF snow/winter thread

[PTPatrick]

Well, the Tuesdays storm seems to be waffling on the models. One run its good upslope moisture and the next minute its killed by downslope. and the timing is WAY off...was supposed to snow and be cold monday, warm up into wednesday, now it looks like MOnday will be warm and Tuesday night wednesday snow could linger in to Christmas eve morning. Thats fine with me I guess. As long as we get some on the ground between now and christmas day
Christmas day looks like a transition day, but no longer 50s.
The Friday/Saturday system is starting to look intriguing.

AND...can you believ how bad the TEMP forecast busted today!...forecast of 15, actual: 32 at my house...WOW. DOUBT seriously we will get below Zero tonight.

[Dencolo]

NWS forecasting 2-4" across my area and 1-3" across the plains in general for Tuesday. With a forecasted high at or just above freezing on Wednesday, I'm thinking that a white Christmas is pretty likely. The patchy snow already on the ground should help as well.

If your criteria for a white Christmas is 1" or more of snow on the ground, Denver only has a white Christmas 53% of the time. I think most people not drom Denver are surprised by this. While we get a lot of snow, our Westerly winds bringing highs in the 50's can melt things fast.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/bou/?n=xmassnow_2008

Edit - well if you look back the last 107 years for Denver, the odds are 36% for a White Christmas. From NOAA -

IF HAVING A WHITE CHRISTMAS MEANS HAVING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON THE GROUND ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN THE CHANCES ARE ABOUT 36 PERCENT (39 days in 107 years).

[SCMedic]

Really hoping for at least 3" out of this storm tomorrow... Looks like the weekened storm could be interesting as well!

[PTPatrick]

COMPLETE TOTAL UTTERly BUSTED forecast for Denver today...mets said 1-3, but not a flake fell, at least not where I was at. There was a few flurries in the north end of town and at DIA, but nothing really south of I-70...which was incedentally where the most snow was supposed to fall. Its sad. Was really hoping for a white Christmas...but I will have to settle for the little bit on the ground here and there. Friday's storm looks to be dudding out too, likely being too dry just east of the mountains but better chance out on the plains. I HATE this pattern The entire northern half of the country is getting blasted by snow from Portland OR to POrtland maine and here I sit...with a brown front yard

[CajunMama]

The entire northern half of the country is getting blasted by snow from Portland OR to POrtland maine and here I sit...with a brown front yard

Welcome to the south! Our yards look like that every year and we so rarely get snow.

[Brent]

The entire northern half of the country is getting blasted by snow from Portland OR to POrtland maine and here I sit...with a brown front yard

Well from one brown yard to another, I feel your pain.

[SCMedic]

60 tomorrow with winds gusting to 80mph in the usual spots. Nothing on the horizon though snow-wise.

[PTPatrick]

I am registering 62 here downtown..was 59 out by city park, so I can imagine some places close to boulder and golden are sitting in the mid 60s. I have the windows open doing my annual mid winter air out.

[CajunMama]

Pretty warm up there for y'all huh? I think of colorado in the winter and i think cold. We're actually the same temp...63 here. Is it normally like this or is this just an unusual warm spell?

[SCMedic]

62 here in Erie... Where's the SNOW?

[PTPatrick]

Cajunmomma...Anything goes here the front range of colorado in winter. Winds descening down the lee side of Rockies warm the air. This frequently happens in Winter and can turn the urban corridor from Colorado springs, denver up Fort Collins from ice boxes to eating outside weather in a matter of hours. While I would say cool to cold is usually the rule, chinnook wind events like this happen frequently. The fun part is when they are preceeded or followed by extreme cold.
Closer you are to the foothills, the warmer it is usually when these events are occuring.
Areas further east generally tend to get a little less snow, but no warming winds, so it isnt unusual for the northeast plains of Colorado around 4500 ft to keep snow cover longer than places around say 6000-7000 ft in the foothills, which can get big snows followed by warmer weather. Colorado is a state of many microclimates created by valleys and mountains. Not a fun forecasting job I can imagine. Just look at current conditions...grand junction which has gotten big snows this past week is in a low valley where the cold air is pooled, is sitting around 20 degrees, while denver sits in t-shirt weather.

[SCMedic]

A better example is the cross sections of the mountains.. Telluride at 45 and Gunderson at 5 degrees...

I'm really itching for a big snowstorm here in the metro.. I have friends coming in the 7th-13th of Jan and they're dying for snow... We'll see...

[SCMedic]

2-4" forecast for tomorrow...

[SCMedic]

The two discussions prior to this morning ramped the Denver area snow up to 2-5", and then this AM they dropped it to a dusting. WTF?

This winter is getting old fast.

[PTPatrick]

I agree...I was getting my hopes up yesterday when I checked the models, then this morning that backed off to almost no qpf north of the Palmer Divide. Seems to have come back to a little snow in the denver area with the 12z run. It is in fact now snowing, sparce, but large flakes in downtown. Seems to be very little on radar north west of the mousetrap (I-25 and I-70 intersection) so areas like arvada, broomfield and boulder could miss this unless the band expands NW.


EDIT: We got a dusting in about half an hour of moderate snow here in downtown. Daytime is causing problems for accumulation though. Seems to already be letting up. Hope this isnt it...

[SCMedic]

Pretty sure that's it... Looks like the upcoming week will be quite dry here as well, with warm temps and downsloping flow... Mountains should see some big numbers though...

[PTPatrick]

Had basically stopped snowing here for most of the late afternoon and evening, but seems to have started up again, lightly. Radar filling in back up north too. I noticed during the afternoon snow we were mainly north wind, now seems to be more northeast, which is a better wind component for snow. I suspect we could see a couple more hours of light snow in the metro area.

[SCMedic]

Ended up with a light snow downtown last night till about 4am. Maybe 1/2" on the ground. Got home this am at 8 to nice big fat flakes, but it didn't last long.

[PTPatrick]

Denver racked up a wopping 32 inches snow in 2008(Jan-Dec)...which is about 30 inches shy of average. Precip was 10 inches ,and the average is about 16. In other words we we 38% short on precip, and 50% short on snow...what a freakin year. I sure hope things turn around this year with precip in Denver. I am so glad I didnt move here during the height of the drought back in 2002, or I probably would have run screaming back to Mobile, Al
The snow amounts are all Jan-Dec, not the "snow year amounts from Jul of one year to Jun of the next)
Some recent numbers:
Year snow precip
2007 - 55- 14 inches
2006 - 59.4 - 8.64 inches (half the snow for the year fell in the last 10 days of december)
2005 - 42 - 12.8
2004 - 45 - 14.5
2003 - 61 - 14
2002 - 31 - 7.5
NOTE: Snow amounts are from Stapleton coop, but the precip is for DIA

The sad part is we arent too far from the driest year ever in Denver, 2002, with snow amounts and precip. I think had the rains we got in october been in the form of snow, which they normally would have been, we probably would have done a few inches better on snow than 2002...Also what hurt snow and total precip were the dry March and November. Anway....lets put 2008 to bed and pray for precip this year...its always possible...the March blizzard of 2003 followed the driest year ever and managed to turn a relatively snowless season from way below average to above average.

[SCMedic]

I really hope we don't end up way down. I love a good snow storm and all the great afternoon thunderstorms during the summer.