Florida Weather

[jinftl]

Christmas cold front 'cancel' for South Florida...from NWS Miami Discussion today:

EXTENDED FORECAST...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THAT WAS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND
CHRISTMAS TIME TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL SEE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH A FEW QUICK PASSING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS.


NWS Forecast for: Miami FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida
Last Update: 1:52 pm EST Dec 20, 2008
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 63.
Monday: A 10 percent chance of showers after 4pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 73.
Monday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Tuesday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 77.
Tuesday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Wednesday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 78.
Wednesday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy and breezy, with a low around 69.
Christmas Day: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 79.
Thursday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.
Friday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 78.

[JonathanBelles]

It was very foggy this morning. I went over the intercoastal this morning, and nearly ran a red light because I couldnt see the light maybe 20 feet away.

[JonathanBelles]

Cool and damp out there right now. Its going to be a very foggy night!

[jinftl]

Front slicing Jacksonville in half....either 60 or 80 depending what side of town you are on...

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
200 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2008

PENSACOLA 51
PANAMA CITY 54
APALACHICOLA 60
TALLAHASSEE 55
GAINESVILLE 76
JACKSONVILLE 61
JAX NAS 80
ORLANDO INTL 79
DAYTONA BEACH 80
MELBOURNE 79
VERO BEACH 78
TAMPA 74
FT MYERS 76
KEY WEST NAS 77
FT LAUDERDALE 81
MIAMI 80

[gatorcane]

Tonight is going to feature a tight temperature gradient from NW to SE across the central and southern half of the peninsula. For example lows in parts of the Greater Tampa Bay area (without water to the NE) are going to be in the lower 40s with a light NE wind. But along the SE Coast of Florida from Martin County southward through Miami-Dade including Palm Beach and Broward counties, the lows will struggle to make it below 60F with strong NE winds with 25mph gusts off of the Gulf stream current that is around 75F.

In fact, looking at the latest SST map from NWS Mesoanalysis, we see why when there is any kind of brisk wind off of the Atlantic, SE Florida's unique "microclimate" takes effect not allowing this area's low temps to drop that much at night even in the winter. Note the much cooler SSTs across the Gulf of Mexico and off of East-Central Florida.....the moderating effect of the water is not quite as dramatic along the coast of central Florida and Northern Florida during the winter months.

[jinftl]

Crazy range of current temps (below) and dewpts across the state. Cold front never really made it south of Lake O (low last night in miami was 65 deg), and the flow is turning onshore so going to be tough to get any cool temps tonight on the se coast.

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
1200 PM EST MON DEC 22 2008

PENSACOLA 37 (dewpt = 10)
PANAMA CITY 42
APALACHICOLA 45
TALLAHASSEE 42
JACKSONVILLE 45
ORLANDO INTL 57 (dewpt = 20)
MELBOURNE 59 (dewpt = 40)
VERO BEACH 63
TAMPA 59
SARASOTA 61
FT MYERS 67
KEY WEST NAS 74 (dewpt = 64)
W PALM BEACH 72
FT LAUDERDALE 76
MIAMI 76 (dewpt = 61)

[jinftl]

Extended outlook from NWS Miami Discussion:

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MASSIVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WRN ATLC/WRN CARIB AND SLOWLY BUILD NORTHWARD WHILE A
LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER WRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND
SLOWLY PROGRESSES EWD. DEEP FLOW ARND THE RIDGE WILL NOT ALLOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NW.
HOWEVER, E/SE FLOW ARND THE BASE OF THE SFC RIDGE OVR WRN ATLC
WILL ADVECT LEFTOVER MOISTURE/CLOUDS PATCHES OVER MAINLAND S. FL.
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN, BUT THIS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE WAY OF SPRINKLES. THIS WILL ALSO INITIATE A
WARMING TREND WITH MIN TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES WARMER AND MAX
TEMPS 5 TO 6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN SEASONAL VALUES.

[gatorcane]

WOW.

Look at the range of dewpoints between West-Central Florida and SE Florida. It's like two different worlds:

[jinftl]

Microclimate south and east of Lake O today in full effect!!!

The front is finally passing though south florida, but with the ne wind flow, lows won't fall out of the low to mid 60's tonight, and temps back up to 80 tomorrow as the winds turn more east (after only hitting high 70s today).


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
222 PM EST MON DEC 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO THE
EVERGLADES CITY AREA MOVING SOUTH. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SOUTH OF
THE PENINSULA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVING EAST, WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
EAST BY TUESDAY AND THEREFORE MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE UP TO THE 80 MARK BY WEDNESDAY AGAIN. ONLY
MINIMAL POPS EXPECTED EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC. THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE DELMARVA TUESDAY AND THE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST
BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THAT THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND STALLS
AND NEVER ENTERS FLORIDA. THIS IS DUE TO A HIGH LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BLOCKS THE NEXT FRONT

WOW.

Look at the range of dewpoints between West-Central Florida and SE Florida. It's like two different worlds:

[O Town]

Very chilly here this A.M. and was last night. 48* now.
Due for a very quick warm up tho. YAY!!!
Looks like we will have a warm Florida Christmas. High near 80. I love it!!

[jinftl]

Proximity to the Atlantic is making a huge difference in temps this morning...30s/40s/50s from the Panhandle down to Tampa and up to inland parts of Jacksonville ...60s/70s from coastal parts of Jacksonville south to the keys on the east coast. Strong e-ne flow at work.
Where you are in Jacksonville can make a 20 degree difference this am!

Current temps with 24-hour temp change in ( ).

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
900 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2008

PENSACOLA NAS 46 (+15)
PANAMA CITY 38 (+4)
APALACHICOLA 42 (+4)
TALLAHASSEE 42 (+7)
GAINESVILLE 45 (+4)
MAYPORT NAS 62 (+22)
JACKSONVILLE 43 (+5)
JAX CRAIG 61 (+21)
ST AUGUSTINE 63 (+20)
ORLANDO INTL 60 (+8)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 (+14)
MELBOURNE 67 (+12)
FT PIERCE 69 (+9)
TAMPA 55 (+2)
FT MYERS 63 (+5)
KEY WEST NAS 71 (+1)
W PALM BEACH 70 (+3)
FT LAUDERDALE 72 (+4)
MIAMI 71 (+3)

[gatorcane]

Well folks there is just no sign of winter for those living in Florida (especially southern Florida) for the forseeable future. A very large deep layer ridge is forecasted to develop which is going to block anything from coming remotely close to Florida......

I even looked at the ECMWF and GFS out to 384 hours (16 days from now) and there is just no sign of the ridge breaking down enough to allow any kind of signficant weather system from the Westerlies to affect Southern Florida ---

but hey 80s during the day and 60s at night is not something to be complaining about

Latest NWS Miami snippet:

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND SO THE WARMING TREND
BEGINS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON DEVELOPING A MASSIVE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE FROM THE WRN CARIB/ATLC NORTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND
ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGE WILL VIRTUALLY BLOCK ANY MID-
LATITUDE SYSTEM FROM APPROACHING S. FLORIDA FROM THE NW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. LACK OF CLOUD COVER/MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
A EAST TO SE LOW LVL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WARMING TREND.
MAX AFTERNOON TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD COULD BE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES ON BOTH EAST/WEST COASTS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVR WRN INTERIOR. MINS, ON THE OTHER HAND,
COULD BE AS MUCH AS 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[jinftl]

Great for tourists coming down to spend the holidays...and great for local businesses

good weather = tourists spend more money

All of the outdoor bars and restaurants in places like South Beach just don't do as well if it is raining and 46 deg....imagine that

Well folks there is just no sign of winter for those living in Florida (especially southern Florida) for the forseeable future. A very large deep layer ridge is forecasted to develop which is going to block anything from coming remotely close to Florida......

I even looked at the ECMWF and GFS out to 384 hours (16 days from now) and there is just no sign of the ridge breaking down enough to allow any kind of signficant weather system from the Westerlies to affect Southern Florida ---

but hey 80s during the day and 60s at night is not something to be complaining about

Latest NWS Miami snippet:

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AND SO THE WARMING TREND
BEGINS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON DEVELOPING A MASSIVE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE FROM THE WRN CARIB/ATLC NORTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND
ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGE WILL VIRTUALLY BLOCK ANY MID-
LATITUDE SYSTEM FROM APPROACHING S. FLORIDA FROM THE NW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. LACK OF CLOUD COVER/MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
A EAST TO SE LOW LVL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WARMING TREND.
MAX AFTERNOON TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD COULD BE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES ON BOTH EAST/WEST COASTS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVR WRN INTERIOR. MINS, ON THE OTHER HAND,
COULD BE AS MUCH AS 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[Extremeweatherguy]

The extended 12z GFS shows a cooler pattern setting up for Florida in the long range:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_252l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_252l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_264l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_264l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_276l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_276l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_276l.gif

Given the fact that this is still 200+ hours out though, I am not buying into it too much just yet.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Yep it looks like will finally get back to normal before the New Year and maybe below there after.

By the end of this
weekend, the middle/upper high moves southeast and allows a strong
middle/upper level trough to dig into the southeast. This in turn
will open the door for a cold front to finally reach South Florida
by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Temperatures will average about 5
to 10 degrees above normal until the next front arrives and then
temperatures will be near normal.

[gatorcane]

Yep it looks like will finally get back to normal before the New Year and maybe below there after.

By the end of this
weekend, the middle/upper high moves southeast and allows a strong
middle/upper level trough to dig into the southeast. This in turn
will open the door for a cold front to finally reach South Florida
by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Temperatures will average about 5
to 10 degrees above normal until the next front arrives and then
temperatures will be near normal.

The NWS office is going with the GFS long-range here. It's interesting to note that the 12Z ECMWF does not bring down such a trough until later in the extended period (240 hours) and it has a good track record with the long-wave pattern out in extended ranges. As some members have noted on the winter discussion thread -- it does appear that the long-wave pattern may change for the start of the New Year featuring troughiness in the East once again. That would bring cooler temperatures to all of Florida and bring Florida back to near normal or just below normal temperatures to start the year.

Nice trough at 240 hours as shown by the 12Z GFS:

[jinftl]

What is interesting....and recent history may be nothing more than non-correllated events....but when we have a November that is below normal in temp, the following December ends up above normal in temp. Saw this is Nov/Dec 2006...on track for seeing this again in Nov/Dec 2008. May speak to the fact that longwave patterns tend to stick around for maybe a few weeks, but often do a complete shift

[HURAKAN]

Nice late night showers.

[gatorcane]

Well as suspected NWS Miami backing off some on the trough eroding the ridge by early next week -- I suspect they are taking into account the ECMWF which insists on a zonal flow out through 240 hours where the ridge finally breaks down.

In the previous discussion, NWS Miami seemed sure that a cold front would swing through S. Florida early next week, however, I was a bit surprised they were so confident as the ECMWF was not showing such a scenario.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS A RATHER VIGOROUS
DISTURBANCE ERODING THIS RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SUN AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE YIELDS TO THIS
DISTURBANCE, A CDFNT MAY BE ABLE TO PENETRATE FURTHER SOUTH AND
REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE NRN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA MONDAY, HOWEVER, GFS HAS
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL QUICKLY ENOUGH FOR THE FRONT TO
LOSE ITS PUNCH AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BY TUESDAY.
KEEPING IN MIND THAT THIS IS STILL IN THE FAR FUTURE AND THIS
SCENARIO CAN CHANGE MANY TIMES, WL ONLY INTRODUCE MINOR CHANGES
FOR THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

[HURAKAN]

Unfortunately it will be a mild Christmas' Eve and Christmas Day across South Florida.