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jinftl
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Heat Wave!

#3161 Postby jinftl » Wed Dec 24, 2008 10:01 am

NWS Miami Discussion for Chistmas Day through the weekend...
look for sunnier weather than we have been seeing as stronger area of subsidence moves in...the proverbial image of going to the beach on Christmas Day in Miami looks like it will hold true this year.


THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEVELOPING
LARGE DEEP LAYER RIDGE FROM THE WRN CARIB/WRN ATLC NORTH ACROSS
THE PENINSULA AND ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGE WILL
NOT ONLY BLOCK ANY MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM FROM APPROACHING S.
FLORIDA FROM THE NW, BUT ALSO WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. AS A RESULT VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND WARMER
TEMPS, WITH MAX TEMPS AS MUCH AS 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES AND MIN TEMPS AS MUCH AS 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER.


Christmas Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.
Thursday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.
Friday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 80.
Friday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70.
Saturday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 79.
Saturday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.
Sunday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 80.
Sunday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.
Monday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 80.
Monday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Tuesday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 79.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Heat Wave!

#3162 Postby gatorcane » Wed Dec 24, 2008 10:40 am

jinftl wrote:NWS Miami Discussion for Chistmas Day through the weekend...
look for sunnier weather than we have been seeing as stronger area of subsidence moves in...the proverbial image of going to the beach on Christmas Day in Miami looks like it will hold true this year.


THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEVELOPING
LARGE DEEP LAYER RIDGE FROM THE WRN CARIB/WRN ATLC NORTH ACROSS
THE PENINSULA AND ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGE WILL
NOT ONLY BLOCK ANY MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM FROM APPROACHING S.
FLORIDA FROM THE NW, BUT ALSO WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. AS A RESULT VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND WARMER
TEMPS, WITH MAX TEMPS AS MUCH AS 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES AND MIN TEMPS AS MUCH AS 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER.


Christmas Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.
Thursday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.
Friday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 80.
Friday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70.
Saturday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 79.
Saturday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.
Sunday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 80.
Sunday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.
Monday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 80.
Monday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Tuesday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 79.


Indeed, but still I'll take 80 degrees and a margarita at the beach over subzero temperatures and snow storms 8-)
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Heat Wave!

#3163 Postby jinftl » Wed Dec 24, 2008 10:45 am

Ditto that....i plan to join the tourists on the beach thursday or friday. There will definitely be ice on miami beach this holiday....in beach coolers and cocktails!

gatorcane wrote:
jinftl wrote:NWS Miami Discussion for Chistmas Day through the weekend...
look for sunnier weather than we have been seeing as stronger area of subsidence moves in...the proverbial image of going to the beach on Christmas Day in Miami looks like it will hold true this year.


THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEVELOPING
LARGE DEEP LAYER RIDGE FROM THE WRN CARIB/WRN ATLC NORTH ACROSS
THE PENINSULA AND ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGE WILL
NOT ONLY BLOCK ANY MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM FROM APPROACHING S.
FLORIDA FROM THE NW, BUT ALSO WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. AS A RESULT VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND WARMER
TEMPS, WITH MAX TEMPS AS MUCH AS 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES AND MIN TEMPS AS MUCH AS 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER.


Christmas Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.
Thursday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.
Friday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 80.
Friday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70.
Saturday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 79.
Saturday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.
Sunday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 80.
Sunday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.
Monday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 80.
Monday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Tuesday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 79.


Indeed, but still I'll take 80 degrees and a margarita at the beach over subzero temperatures and snow storms 8-)
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Heat Wave!

#3164 Postby gatorcane » Wed Dec 24, 2008 10:52 am

jinftl wrote:What is interesting....and recent history may be nothing more than non-correllated events....but when we have a November that is below normal in temp, the following December ends up above normal in temp. Saw this is Nov/Dec 2006...on track for seeing this again in Nov/Dec 2008. May speak to the fact that longwave patterns tend to stick around for maybe a few weeks, but often do a complete shift


perhaps, it certainly seems like this year may repeat 2006 with avg. monthly temperature values lower in November than in December....do you have the data? I'm pretty sure December is going to go down as a warmer month than November for Southern Florida.

Still, I do see the long-wave pattern changing in the extended range, so the first couple of weeks in January may be cooler than normal here in S. Florida. Still a long way out but it would be something if the November goes down as the coolest month for Southern Florida this winter.....beating out Dec. Jan. and Feb.....and of course we can't forget about the end of October, which was rather cool here also....very similar to 2005 with the big front that swept through here in the wake of Wilma which pushed summer out of here in a hurry.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Heat Wave!

#3165 Postby jinftl » Wed Dec 24, 2008 12:40 pm

It's not at all out of the question that if the forecast for the next week verifies, Dec 2008 will be as warm...or warmer...than Nov 2008 was. As of yesterday, the month to date avg in Miami for Dec was 70.6 deg (+0.4 above normal). This number has been steadily increasing by a few tenth's of a degree each day during the warm spell. By comparison, Nov 2008 had an avg temp of 71.8 deg (-2.7 below normal). It's going to be close if the forecast for the next week pans out (low last night was 72 deg...above the avg temp even, so off to a good start).

The lowest temp in Miami in November 2008 was 52 deg. The lowest temp so far (and more than likely to remain as such) in December has been 51 deg.

The winter of 2006/07 was more extreme in this manner...average temps in Miami...
Nov-06 73.0 deg (-1.4 below avg...lowest temp for month was 45 deg)
Dec-06 74.4 deg (+4.5 above avg...lowest temp for month was 56 deg)
Jan-07 72.5 deg (+4.4 above avg...lowest temp for month was 51 deg)
Feb-07 69.2 deg (+0.1 above avg...lowest temp for month was 42 deg)

Until a real cold front moved through in Feb 07, the coldest temp for the season took place in Nov 06!!! The Feb cool down was short-lived....March in Miami warmed up and temps never looked back till the next fall.

gatorcane wrote:
jinftl wrote:What is interesting....and recent history may be nothing more than non-correllated events....but when we have a November that is below normal in temp, the following December ends up above normal in temp. Saw this is Nov/Dec 2006...on track for seeing this again in Nov/Dec 2008. May speak to the fact that longwave patterns tend to stick around for maybe a few weeks, but often do a complete shift


perhaps, it certainly seems like this year may repeat 2006 with avg. monthly temperature values lower in November than in December....do you have the data? I'm pretty sure December is going to go down as a warmer month than November for Southern Florida.

Still, I do see the long-wave pattern changing in the extended range, so the first couple of weeks in January may be cooler than normal here in S. Florida. Still a long way out but it would be something if the November goes down as the coolest month for Southern Florida this winter.....beating out Dec. Jan. and Feb.....and of course we can't forget about the end of October, which was rather cool here also....very similar to 2005 with the big front that swept through here in the wake of Wilma which pushed summer out of here in a hurry.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Heat Wave!

#3166 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Dec 24, 2008 1:02 pm

The 12z GFS continues to show a cooler pattern setting up for Florida during the first half of January.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Heat Wave!

#3167 Postby jinftl » Thu Dec 25, 2008 2:25 pm

Not too many fireplaces being used across florida this christmas...latest temps...

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
200 PM EST THU DEC 25 2008

PENSACOLA 74
PANAMA CITY 75
APALACHICOLA 73
TALLAHASSEE 74
GAINESVILLE 77
JACKSONVILLE 78
ORLANDO INTL 76
VERO BEACH 80
FT PIERCE 80
TAMPA 77
FT MYERS 83
NAPLES 82
KEY WEST NAS 79
W PALM BEACH 80
FT LAUDERDALE 81
MIAMI 81
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#3168 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Dec 25, 2008 2:32 pm

I've got the AC on! Much too warm for Christmas, feels like late summer.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Heat Wave!

#3169 Postby boca » Thu Dec 25, 2008 5:11 pm

I've been running my ac nonstop since Dec 10th.No real cold fronts in sight just weakening troughs pushing thru as the winds shift NE not cooling us down. Hey its Florida its not supposed to get cold. My air conditioner got a break for 3 weeks. I'm wishing for another break in January.On another weather forum some pro mets were talking about a - NAO in January which means real cold fronts not dying troughs.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Heat Wave!

#3170 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Dec 25, 2008 9:16 pm

boca wrote:I've been running my ac nonstop since Dec 10th.No real cold fronts in sight just weakening troughs pushing thru as the winds shift NE not cooling us down. Hey its Florida its not supposed to get cold. My air conditioner got a break for 3 weeks. I'm wishing for another break in January.On another weather forum some pro mets were talking about a - NAO in January which means real cold fronts not dying troughs.

Your statement: "Hey its Florida its not supposed to get cold."

Answer: MYTH

South Florida has a notable history of numerous severe, persistent freezes and cold events. Most seasons feature a minimum of one event with temperatures below 40 F in south Florida. In fact, Miami has seen lows in the 20s and low 30s on several occasions. A small sample of the most significant cold events and freezes includes December 1894, February 1895, February 1899, February 1917, 1927 (?), December 1934, January 1940, December 1957, December 1962, January 1977, January 1981, December 1983, January 1985, December 1989, and February 2003.

http://www.flcitrusmutual.com/industry-issues/weather/freeze_timeline.aspx

Top 10 Weather Events
PALM BEACH COUNTY


3. Freeze and snow; January 19, 1977
All time record low of 27 degrees at West Palm Beach
5. Christmas Day Freeze; December 25, 1989
Electrical brown-outs and severe agriculture damage
8. Longest Cold spell; December 10-15, 1962
6 days in a row with near freezing temperatures

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/newpage/palm_beach_events.html

Top 10 Weather Events
BROWARD COUNTY


4. Freeze and snow; January 19, 1977
One of most severe of century
7. Christmas Day Freeze; December 25, 1989
Electrical brown-outs; vegetation damage

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/newpage/broward_events.html

Top 10 Weather Events
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY


3. Freeze and snow; January 19, 1977
One of the most severe of the century, temperatures below 32 degrees for up to 14 hours and lowest temperatures near 20 degrees in Homestead
7. Freeze; February 3-5, 1917
Probably coldest temperatures this century; 26 degrees along Biscayne Blvd.
9. Longest Cold spell; December 10-15, 1962
6 days in a row with temperatures at or below 35 degrees in Homestead
10. Christmas Day Freeze; December 25, 1989
Electrical brown-outs and severe agricultural damage; 3 hypothermia deaths

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/newpage/dade_events.html
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Heat Wave!

#3171 Postby Sanibel » Fri Dec 26, 2008 12:59 am

Unusually warm here. Usually chilly at this time of year.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Heat Wave!

#3172 Postby jinftl » Fri Dec 26, 2008 12:47 pm

The 80 deg mark is starting to be reached and surpassed again today…current temps below...

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
1200 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2008

PENSACOLA NAS 66
PANAMA CITY 69
TALLAHASSEE 73
GAINESVILLE 77
JACKSONVILLE 77
ORLANDO INTL 78
DAYTONA BEACH 77
MELBOURNE 77
VERO BEACH 78
TAMPA 78
SARASOTA 79
FT MYERS 80
NAPLES 80
W PALM BEACH 76
FT LAUDERDALE 81
MIAMI 79
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#3174 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Dec 27, 2008 1:37 pm

wow!!! Its getting colder!
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Heat Wave!

#3175 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Dec 27, 2008 2:37 pm

Is it a coincidence that the vast majority of your posts focus on the operational GFS beyond 200 hours? You're a decent contributor, so I would anticipate more short/medium term analyses. I'm not discrediting your approach, but it's surprising that anyone would solely focus on long range (individual) model runs...

I've closely examined numerous atmosphere/ocean connections, and nothing favors a colder regime in southern Florida, based on my assessments.
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#3176 Postby psyclone » Sat Dec 27, 2008 3:15 pm

I am loving this weather! Yet another 80 degree day in December. I would be perfectly content for it to remain this way the rest of the winter.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Heat Wave!

#3177 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Dec 27, 2008 3:30 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:Is it a coincidence that the vast majority of your posts focus on the operational GFS beyond 200 hours? You're a decent contributor, so I would anticipate more short/medium term analyses. I'm not discrediting your approach, but it's surprising that anyone would solely focus on long range (individual) model runs...

I've closely examined numerous atmosphere/ocean connections, and nothing favors a colder regime in southern Florida, based on my assessments.
I post the long range runs just for fun mostly. Looking at such extremes, even if they are unlikely to actually come to fruition, gives a nice spark to the forums on some of the tamer weather days. The only thing I really look for seriously in the long range is run-to-run and model-to-model trends. In this case, the trend of late has been for a colder pattern to set up across the eastern USA in the long range. This trend, which has gone on for 2-3 days now, has credibility due to the fact that the NAO is forecasted to continue becoming more and more negative through the beginning new year and the PNA is forecasted to go positive. Since both a -NAO and a +PNA favor cold along the eastern seaboard, including Florida, I see no reason why Florida would not be headed for a colder regime over the next few weeks. The models are probably overdoing it a bit right now, but a cool down to some degree seems inevitable IMO.

( The Climate Prediction Center seems to agree with this idea in their latest Day 8 to 14 outlook: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... mp.new.gif )

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Additional information for Storm2k members who may not be familiar with the NAO/PNA...

NAO ensembles: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip ... _ensm.html
PNA ensembles: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip ... _ensm.html

Typical pattern during a -NAO phase: http://media.mgbg.com/wrbl/images/weath ... e/NAO4.jpg
Typical pattern during a +PNA phase: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Teleconnections ... os.jan.gif

Extreme events in the southeast are several times more likely during a +PNA phase: http://cses.washington.edu/cig/figures/ ... ap_big.gif
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#3178 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:06 pm

80's are finally out of my 7-day future! A couple 20%'s have been added, but other than that pretty dry too.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Weak front then cooler

#3179 Postby jinftl » Mon Dec 29, 2008 4:02 pm

How often do you read the word 'bailiwick' in a NWS product....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
231 PM EST MON DEC 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT MID/UPPER FLOW
THROUGH THIS FCST CYCLE AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINING FIRM ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL PREVENT ANY REAL STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR
TO S FLA BUT WITH RIDGE AXIS TO OUR SOUTH, IT WILL ALLOW SEVERAL
FRONTS TO APPROACH OUR BAILIWICK BUT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE KEEPING
OUR TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
.

NWS Forecast for: Miami FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida
Last Update: 3:52 pm EST Dec 29, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. East wind between 6 and 9 mph becoming calm.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. North wind between 6 and 9 mph.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Northeast wind between 6 and 9 mph becoming calm.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. West wind between 6 and 10 mph.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. North wind around 9 mph.
New Year's Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. East wind between 9 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. East wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 78. South wind between 10 and 13 mph.
Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. West wind around 11 mph becoming north.
Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 76.
Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.
Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 77.
Sunday Night: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Weak front then cooler

#3180 Postby jinftl » Mon Dec 29, 2008 4:28 pm

Dewpoints are in the 40's and 50's behind the front in the panhandle and northern peninsula...compared to dewpts in the 60's central and south....but hard to call the air behind this front 'cold'. The drier air will allow for some radiational cooling esp north tonight, but nothing unseasonable.

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
400 PM EST MON DEC 29 2008

PENSACOLA NAS 70
PANAMA CITY 70
APALACHICOLA 73
TALLAHASSEE 73
GAINESVILLE 71
JACKSONVILLE 72
ORLANDO INTL 79
DAYTONA BEACH 79
MELBOURNE 78
VERO BEACH 77
TAMPA 76
ST PETERSBURG 75
FT MYERS 79
KEY WEST INTL 76
W PALM BEACH 77
FT LAUDERDALE 79
MIAMI 79
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