Post-Christmas severe weather outbreak?

[CrazyC83]

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 955
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WESTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 955 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF KANSAS
CITY MISSOURI TO 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN
SHORT BANDS FROM ERN KS INTO WRN MO. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY
ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND ALONG THE W EDGE OF THE RICHEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL
INCREASE AS DESTABILIZATION AND ASCENT CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM CO/NM. VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION...AND THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM LATER TONIGHT AND FARTHER TO THE
W IN KS ALONG A COLD FRONT...AND EVOLVE INTO A LINE WITH EMBEDDED
BOW/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.


...THOMPSON

[Ed Mahmoud]

[Dave]

Saw the watch pop up on GRLevel3 radar.

[CrazyC83]

Cells also developing in southeast Iowa. I'd watch that area as well for a potential surprise.

[Dave]

Tornado Watch # 955

[CrazyC83]

From another board: TVS on a cell NE of Kansas City.

[Dave]

Watching it, between Kingston & Polo MO now...still holding TVS.

[Dave]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1044 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
SOUTHEASTERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
SOUTHEASTERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
NORTHWESTERN LINN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
NORTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 1130 PM CST

* AT 1042 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KINGSTON...OR 8 MILES SOUTH
OF HAMILTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THIS STORM HAS ALSO
SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAK ROTATION.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BRECKENRIDGE BY 1055 PM CST.
UTICA BY 1100 PM CST.
CHILLICOTHE BY 1105 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
MOORESVILLE...LOCK SPRINGS...SPRING HILL...CHULA AND LAREDO.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA.

[6SpeedTA95]

Good evening guys. This is goign to be an overnight event and I'm afraid this may become quite dangerous, people aren't prepared or expecting it this time of year. The air is very moist, its still warm and I would guess dewpoints are still close to 60* here despite slight cooling and wind decrease.

[CrazyC83]

I would have issued a Tornado Warning on that cell.

[Dave]

I'm starting to get a few cells north Wichita KS now.

Wichita KS Dewpoint: 55 Temp: 61

[Dave]

2nd one.....

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1057 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
SOUTHWESTERN RAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 1130 PM CST

* AT 1052 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BELTON...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
RAYTOWN AND LEE'S SUMMIT BY 1105 PM CST.
LAKE TAPAWINGO AND BLUE SPRINGS BY 1110 PM CST.
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAIN VALLEY BY 1115 PM CST.
BUCKNER BY 1120 PM CST.
ORRICK...SIBLEY AND LEVASY BY 1125 PM CST.
8 MILES WEST OF HENRIETTA AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF WELLINGTON BY
1130 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE UNITY
VILLAGE...NAPOLEON...FLEMING AND CAMDEN.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA.

[6SpeedTA95]

Man I was expecting a watch for my area by 11pm. Nothing yet, thats pretty surprising.

[Dave]

Most active area as of 0000 hrs est.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2527
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO / SERN IA / W-CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 270515Z - 270645Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THAT SYNOPTIC
WARM FRONT IS STEADILY LIFTING NWD THROUGH NRN MO AND CNTRL IL WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.
NE-SW ORIENTED BANDS OF TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED FROM ERN KS/WRN MO NEWD TO NEAR CDJ AS OF 0455Z WITHIN THE
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS.

REGIONAL PROFILER AND VWP PLAN VIEW PLOTS SHOW THAT A BROAD AND
INTENSE LLJ HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SRN PLAINS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE NEWD FLUX OF AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS
SUCH...EXPECT TSTMS TO EXPAND NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN IA INTO
WRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF IL WHERE LLJ IS FOCUSING STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT.

MODIFYING RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS
SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A VERY SHALLOW
NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER. HOWEVER...ONLY SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT WOULD SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORMS.
GIVEN THE STRONG AMBIENT SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME
HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE INTENSE...
SURFACE-BASED STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.

..MEAD.. 12/27/2008

[CrazyC83]

That potential watch area, for the most part, is on the edge of the SPC's forecasted general thunderstorm boundary...this is turning into January 7 all over again...

[CrazyC83]

SE Kansas getting active; it is likely only a matter of time before it spreads into Oklahoma, even though that tenacious cap is giving it a fight.

[6SpeedTA95]

The cap is not nearly as strong as it was a few hours ago though. It will only take minimal forcing to get things going. I thinkt hey probably should have put a watch up.

[CrazyC83]

Solid cells now forming near Salina, KS, well to the west.

[Dave]

The line near Salina KS is also building near Cherokee OK & Vance AFB and starting to extend SW from that region.