Could Get Interesting Here in AZ

[Aslkahuna]

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for all of SE AZ for Thursday and Friday for significant snow above 4500 feet and accumulations down as low as 4000 feet. The local forecasts also call for possible snow showers in Tucson proper Friday afternoon and evening. Lows Friday and Saturday in Tucson are expected to be in the mid 20's which imply lows into the Teens in Cochise County (except possible single digit readings near the San Pedro River).

Steve

[vbhoutex]

Yikes!! It'll be interesting to see how this one plays out.

[Aslkahuna]

Except for the rain holding off until today, things are playing out pretty much as forecast. Our high was 57F right after midnight with the front coming through around 8 AM. Temperatures nosedived into the upper 30's and some snow mixed in the rain from time to time. Hard freeze warning for Tucson tonight and tomorrow night with lows in the mid 20's. Cochise County will see teens tomorrow night and cold air drainage areas near the river will drop into single digits. There's a lot of moisture around so there will be patchy dense (freezing) fog and heavy frost tonight and road icing will be a problem. A major problem area will be Texas Canyon along I-10 where steep grades and ice are going to make for dicey driving tonight. A freeze warning is also in effect for areas around Phoenix.

Steve

[vbhoutex]

Yikes on those temps! How common is this for the area?

[Aslkahuna]

In Cochise County, teens happen at least one time (of more than one day usually) during the Winter usually in late December into early February though I saw 18F once in March. Tucson sees 20's during the same time period. Modern record low for Sierra Vista (Fort Huachuca) is +9 but the older records for the area are +1F at FHU, and -6F for Canelo and along the San Pedro River near Benson. Willcox has seen -10F. A couple of Winters ago we had temperatures of +8F in Douglas, +6F in Palominas south of SV and -2F along the River. The record low for Tucson is +6F in 1913 and +16F in Phoenix the same year (the +1F at FHU was also in 1913). The -6F is from 1949 and the -10F in Willcox from 1962. Based upon news reports, there was accumulating snow along I-10 from milepost 279 all of the way to the NM State line. Milepost 279 is 15 miles east of TUS.

Steve

[SCMedic]

When I was playing baseball with the Rockies in 2001, I remember a nice accumulating snow in Tucson that winter... Cactus' and snow is ODD.

[Stephanie]

When I was playing baseball with the Rockies in 2001, I remember a nice accumulating snow in Tucson that winter... Cactus' and snow is ODD.

Okay, now I'm curious..

This winter is only "officially" 8 days old, but the month of December and even November has really really given almost the whole nation a taste of it. I don't remember the last time it has been so active for so much of the country. Given the early start, Steve, do you think that you'll be seeing teens again between now and February?

[Aslkahuna]

We most certainly could see teens in Cochise County again this Winter. Actually this cold weather in AZ is not really early since traditionally when I was in Sierra Vista we would see low 20's to teens in Cochise County almost every year around the latter part of December. Early would be seeing teens in November (like we did once) or 20's in October (like we did once with snow). Cochise County is at an average elevation of 4500 feet and is east of the western boundary of the Basin/Range Country that marks the Continental Divide south of the Rockies. Consequently, contrary to conventional wisdom, cold air from the Plains can make into the area-this is what led to the record -10F in Willcox in 1962.

Steve

[Stephanie]

I didn't realize that your elevation was so high.

[Aslkahuna]

I live in the Old Pueblo (Tucson) now which is at 2500 ft. I spent 22 years in Sierra Vista though at that 4500 ft elevation. The combination of elevation and monsoonal rainfall results in Sierra Vista being a Savannah grassland climate rather than desert. Tucson, in fact, is marginal desert since the Sonoran desert is a "wet" desert with rainfall on the high end of desert classification (≤ 20cm/yr).

Steve