SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1146 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008
KSZ022-023-270600-
POTTAWATOMIE-RILEY-
1146 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR RILEY AND POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT CST...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF RILEY AND POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PEA SIZE HAIL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE EASTERN
MANHATTAN...TUTTLE CREEK STATE PARK AND ST. GEORGE.
$$
Post-Christmas severe weather outbreak?
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Post-Christmas severe weather outbreak?
SPC AC 270557
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY...
...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU/LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
TODAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THE CENTER OF A BROAD 50 TO 65 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE NNEWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU AROUND MIDDAY
AND INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET...MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A
WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL-LINE ONGOING AT 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE LINE
ADVANCING EWD ACROSS WRN MO...ERN OK AND NE TX THIS MORNING. THE
SQUALL-LINE SHOULD REACH ERN MO...ERN AR AND WRN LA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY WEAKEN SOME AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES NNEWD AWAY
FROM THE REGION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU SHOW VERY
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AT 12Z TO 15Z WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 50 KT OVER EAST TX AND LA TO
ABOVE 80 KT OVER SE KS AND PARTS OF WRN MO. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW
MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 750 J/KG...THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...LIFT ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT A
SEVERE LINEAR MCS THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW 50-60
KT OF FLOW AT 1 KM ACROSS THE CNTRL PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
SUGGESTING A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST AS THE
SQUALL-LINE ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. A FEW TORNADOES
MAY OCCUR IN THE LINE ITSELF OR WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE. FURTHER NNE ACROSS THE MID-MS
VALLEY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUGGESTING THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD FROM CNTRL MO EWD ACROSS SRN IL.
THE SQUALL-LINE WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS SOUTH ACROSS SRN AR...EAST TX
AND WRN LA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN AREAS TO
THE NORTH...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS THE LINE ADVANCES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SQUALL-LINE SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS
MS AND WRN TN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WEAK
INSTABILITY AND DECREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE
THREAT MARGINAL.
..BROYLES.. 12/27/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0605Z (1:05AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY...
...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU/LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
TODAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THE CENTER OF A BROAD 50 TO 65 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE NNEWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU AROUND MIDDAY
AND INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET...MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A
WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL-LINE ONGOING AT 12Z THIS MORNING WITH THE LINE
ADVANCING EWD ACROSS WRN MO...ERN OK AND NE TX THIS MORNING. THE
SQUALL-LINE SHOULD REACH ERN MO...ERN AR AND WRN LA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY WEAKEN SOME AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES NNEWD AWAY
FROM THE REGION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU SHOW VERY
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AT 12Z TO 15Z WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 50 KT OVER EAST TX AND LA TO
ABOVE 80 KT OVER SE KS AND PARTS OF WRN MO. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW
MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 750 J/KG...THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...LIFT ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT A
SEVERE LINEAR MCS THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW 50-60
KT OF FLOW AT 1 KM ACROSS THE CNTRL PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
SUGGESTING A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST AS THE
SQUALL-LINE ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. A FEW TORNADOES
MAY OCCUR IN THE LINE ITSELF OR WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE. FURTHER NNE ACROSS THE MID-MS
VALLEY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUGGESTING THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD FROM CNTRL MO EWD ACROSS SRN IL.
THE SQUALL-LINE WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS SOUTH ACROSS SRN AR...EAST TX
AND WRN LA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN AREAS TO
THE NORTH...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS THE LINE ADVANCES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SQUALL-LINE SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS
MS AND WRN TN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WEAK
INSTABILITY AND DECREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE
THREAT MARGINAL.
..BROYLES.. 12/27/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0605Z (1:05AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 956
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1205 AM UNTIL 700 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLUMBIA
MISSOURI TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF POTEAU OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 955...
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITHIN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR FROM ERN OK NNEWD INTO NW AR AND
MO. THE 05Z SGF SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE OPEN
WARM SECTOR WITH VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MUCAPE OF 750-1000
J/KG...AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED SINCE 00Z IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER. PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
...THOMPSON
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 956
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1205 AM UNTIL 700 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLUMBIA
MISSOURI TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF POTEAU OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 955...
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITHIN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR FROM ERN OK NNEWD INTO NW AR AND
MO. THE 05Z SGF SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE OPEN
WARM SECTOR WITH VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MUCAPE OF 750-1000
J/KG...AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED SINCE 00Z IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER. PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
...THOMPSON
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2528
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 270607Z - 270730Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WW.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES REMNANT DRYLINE WHICH IS NOW MORE
CHARACTERIZED AS A PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING FROM WOODS COUNTY SWWD
THROUGH ROGER MILLS COUNTY INTO THE SERN TX PNHDL. A MORE INTENSE
COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD THROUGH WRN KS AND THE OK INTO NRN TX PNHDLS
WILL OVERTAKE THE PACIFIC FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR...SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A
STEADY INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT OVER NWRN
OK. PRESUMABLY...THIS IS A RESULT OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD WRN
EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY ELEVATED...BUT WITH TIME SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS LIKELY AS SURFACE FRONT PROGRESSES EWD/SEWD THROUGH
INSTABILITY AXIS.
RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT...BUT THE PRESENCE
OF LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG.
DESPITE THE MODEST INSTABILITY...THE STRONG...AMBIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
..MEAD.. 12/27/2008
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35609886 36459844 36909764 36949666 36369598 35349605
34469655 34039735 34409846 34979891 35609886
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 270607Z - 270730Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WW.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES REMNANT DRYLINE WHICH IS NOW MORE
CHARACTERIZED AS A PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING FROM WOODS COUNTY SWWD
THROUGH ROGER MILLS COUNTY INTO THE SERN TX PNHDL. A MORE INTENSE
COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD THROUGH WRN KS AND THE OK INTO NRN TX PNHDLS
WILL OVERTAKE THE PACIFIC FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR...SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A
STEADY INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT OVER NWRN
OK. PRESUMABLY...THIS IS A RESULT OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD WRN
EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY ELEVATED...BUT WITH TIME SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS LIKELY AS SURFACE FRONT PROGRESSES EWD/SEWD THROUGH
INSTABILITY AXIS.
RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT...BUT THE PRESENCE
OF LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG.
DESPITE THE MODEST INSTABILITY...THE STRONG...AMBIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP.
..MEAD.. 12/27/2008
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35609886 36459844 36909764 36949666 36369598 35349605
34469655 34039735 34409846 34979891 35609886
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Re: Post-Christmas severe weather outbreak?
im in peoria illinois...and all day i was thinkin we may have a shot...and then bout an hr ago the spc put out a discussion including my area...what do u guys think? will we get a watch across ne missouri, se iowa, and west central illinois? i think the temps and dew pts r sufficient enough at 55 each here in peoria, and the LLJ is really starting to kick in...
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Post-Christmas severe weather outbreak?
CKB 38 wrote:im in peoria illinois...and all day i was thinkin we may have a shot...and then bout an hr ago the spc put out a discussion including my area...what do u guys think? will we get a watch across ne missouri, se iowa, and west central illinois? i think the temps and dew pts r sufficient enough at 55 each here in peoria, and the LLJ is really starting to kick in...
Tornado Warnings just across the river from Quincy, so worth watching.
TORNADO WARNING
MOC111-127-137-205-270730-
/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0086.081227T0644Z-081227T0730Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1244 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN LEWIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI
WESTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI
MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI
SHELBY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI
* UNTIL 130 AM CST
* AT 1242 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION 7 MILES WEST OF MADISON...
OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOBERLY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WOODLAWN...
MAUD...
GRANVILLE...
SHELBINA...
EMDEN...
WARREN...
PHILADELPHIA...
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Post-Christmas severe weather outbreak?
Norman/OKC and FTW still capped on special Midnight Sounding
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/08122706_OBS/last.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/08122706_OBS/FWD.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/08122706_OBS/last.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/08122706_OBS/FWD.gif
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-
PurdueWx80
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2720
- Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:33 pm
- Location: Madison, WI
- Contact:
Re: Post-Christmas severe weather outbreak?
looks to me supercells are trying to develop just ahead of the squall line in eastern oklahoma. this could spell trouble for much of arkansas today, especially once heating pushes temps well into the 70s. i still think severe weather could get as far north as chicago today - this is exactly what happened in january when the warm sector pushed up to the edge of the deep snowpack (and there were rare strong tornadoes in southeast wisconsin along the front).
i can't believe how fast our snow has melted overnight - we had 16" on the ground yesterday, and it's down to about 5 or 6 now. we're nearing our record high temperature this morning, and many have already been broken in surrounding areas.
i can't believe how fast our snow has melted overnight - we had 16" on the ground yesterday, and it's down to about 5 or 6 now. we're nearing our record high temperature this morning, and many have already been broken in surrounding areas.
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
SPC AC 271300
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION WWD INTO SERN KS/ERN OK/ERN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE SLOW EWD PROGRESS...MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. MEANWHILE...AN
EMBEDDED/SMALLER-SCALE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
EJECT MORE QUICKLY NEWD...CROSSING OK/KS THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN
SHIFTING ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT -- CURRENTLY FOCUSING A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NRN MO SSWWD ACROSS SERN KS/ERN OK/N
CENTRAL TX -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE STEADILY EWD REACHING THE MID AND
LOWER MS VALLEYS NEAR SUNSET. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD...A LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT INVOF
NRN IL...AND THEN SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...THE TRAILING FRONT SHOULD SURGE MORE
QUICKLY EWD...LIKELY REACHING THE W SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
28/12Z.
...MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY WWD INTO SERN KS/ERN OK/ERN TX...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- A FEW OCCASIONALLY SEVERE --
ARE ONGOING ATTM ROUGHLY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...FROM NWRN MO
SSWWD ACROSS SERN KS/ERN OK...AND THEN INTO N CENTRAL TX AS A MORE
BROKEN LINE.
THE DEEP-LAYER SSWLY WIND FIELD REMAINS QUITE STRONG /EXCEEDING 60
KT AT H85 AND 80 KT ATOP THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE AT H5/...WHICH IS
AIDING THE ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
THOUGH THE FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD -- MORE
THAN SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT...INSTABILITY --
CURRENTLY RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE OVER NRN
PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER THE TX PORTIONS
OF THE RISK AREA -- SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. IN FACT...AS THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES EWD IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER A
PROGRESSIVELY-LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS...GIVEN THE LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR HEATING AND THE EXPECTED LACK COOLING ALOFT ATOP MOST OF THE
RISK AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS QUICKLY NEWD.
NONETHELESS...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD -- GIVEN THE STRONGLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
-- THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN LIKELY. GREATEST POTENTIAL --
INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES -- APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM W CENTRAL IL AND MUCH OF MO SWD
INTO ERN OK/WRN AND CENTRAL AR/NERN TX...WHERE THE GREATEST
JUXTAPOSITION OF AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED.
WHILE A SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...CROSSING THE MID AND
LOWER MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS WITH TIME...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO A GENERAL LACK OF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY.
..GOSS.. 12/27/2008
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION WWD INTO SERN KS/ERN OK/ERN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE SLOW EWD PROGRESS...MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. MEANWHILE...AN
EMBEDDED/SMALLER-SCALE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
EJECT MORE QUICKLY NEWD...CROSSING OK/KS THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN
SHIFTING ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT -- CURRENTLY FOCUSING A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NRN MO SSWWD ACROSS SERN KS/ERN OK/N
CENTRAL TX -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE STEADILY EWD REACHING THE MID AND
LOWER MS VALLEYS NEAR SUNSET. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD...A LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT INVOF
NRN IL...AND THEN SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...THE TRAILING FRONT SHOULD SURGE MORE
QUICKLY EWD...LIKELY REACHING THE W SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
28/12Z.
...MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY WWD INTO SERN KS/ERN OK/ERN TX...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- A FEW OCCASIONALLY SEVERE --
ARE ONGOING ATTM ROUGHLY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...FROM NWRN MO
SSWWD ACROSS SERN KS/ERN OK...AND THEN INTO N CENTRAL TX AS A MORE
BROKEN LINE.
THE DEEP-LAYER SSWLY WIND FIELD REMAINS QUITE STRONG /EXCEEDING 60
KT AT H85 AND 80 KT ATOP THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE AT H5/...WHICH IS
AIDING THE ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
THOUGH THE FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD -- MORE
THAN SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT...INSTABILITY --
CURRENTLY RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE OVER NRN
PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER THE TX PORTIONS
OF THE RISK AREA -- SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. IN FACT...AS THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES EWD IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER A
PROGRESSIVELY-LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS...GIVEN THE LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR HEATING AND THE EXPECTED LACK COOLING ALOFT ATOP MOST OF THE
RISK AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS QUICKLY NEWD.
NONETHELESS...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD -- GIVEN THE STRONGLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
-- THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN LIKELY. GREATEST POTENTIAL --
INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES -- APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM W CENTRAL IL AND MUCH OF MO SWD
INTO ERN OK/WRN AND CENTRAL AR/NERN TX...WHERE THE GREATEST
JUXTAPOSITION OF AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED.
WHILE A SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...CROSSING THE MID AND
LOWER MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS WITH TIME...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO A GENERAL LACK OF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY.
..GOSS.. 12/27/2008
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Dave
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- Location: Milan Indiana
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Catching up on the tornado watch areas....Tornado Watch # 957
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 135 AM UNTIL 900 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON
ILLINOIS TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF QUINCY ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 955...WW 956...
DISCUSSION...SCTD CLUSTERS/SHORT BANDS OF SUSTAINED TSTMS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST IN WAA AREA ALONG AXIS OF 60 KT SSWLY LLJ. GRADUAL LOW
LVL MOISTENING ACROSS REGION...AND CONTINUED EROSION OF SHALLOW LOW
LVL STABLE LAYER...MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO SCTD DMGG WIND GUSTS...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP/EXIST THROUGH MID MORNING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 135 AM UNTIL 900 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON
ILLINOIS TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF QUINCY ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 955...WW 956...
DISCUSSION...SCTD CLUSTERS/SHORT BANDS OF SUSTAINED TSTMS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST IN WAA AREA ALONG AXIS OF 60 KT SSWLY LLJ. GRADUAL LOW
LVL MOISTENING ACROSS REGION...AND CONTINUED EROSION OF SHALLOW LOW
LVL STABLE LAYER...MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO SCTD DMGG WIND GUSTS...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP/EXIST THROUGH MID MORNING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
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Dave
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- Location: Milan Indiana
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 958
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 205 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 955...WW 956...WW 957...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE NOW FORMING ALONG COLD FRONT IN S CNTRL KS/NW
OK. OTHER STORMS ARE FORMING ALONG TROUGH/DRY LINE EXTENDING
NNE/SSW IN WRN OK. STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AS UVV
INCREASES WITH CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF UPR VORT NOW NEAR ABQ.
AREA WIND PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. WITH
AT LEAST SOME OF THE STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE...AND
WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT THROUGHOUT
REGION...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO SMALL
SCALE BOWS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS/SVR HAIL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
...CORFIDI
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 958
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 205 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 955...WW 956...WW 957...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE NOW FORMING ALONG COLD FRONT IN S CNTRL KS/NW
OK. OTHER STORMS ARE FORMING ALONG TROUGH/DRY LINE EXTENDING
NNE/SSW IN WRN OK. STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AS UVV
INCREASES WITH CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF UPR VORT NOW NEAR ABQ.
AREA WIND PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. WITH
AT LEAST SOME OF THE STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE...AND
WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT THROUGHOUT
REGION...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO SMALL
SCALE BOWS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS/SVR HAIL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
...CORFIDI
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Dave
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- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 959
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
[b]TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
MUCH OF MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 430 AM UNTIL NOON CST.[b]
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 130 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
ALTON ILLINOIS TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONETT MISSOURI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 955...WW 956...WW
957...WW 958...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ALONG COLD FRONT IN ERN KS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRONG AND POSSIBLY INCREASE AS FRONT CONTINUES ESE INTO MO BENEATH
STRENGTHENING UPR DIFFLUENCE/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE SRN
HI PLNS UPR VORT. ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM CNTRL OK SFC WAVE. OTHER STORMS MAY
SLOWLY INCREASE FROM NRN AR NNE INTO CNTRL MO...ALONG ERN SIDE OF
SSWLY LLJ. WITH SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THROUGHOUT
WW...COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MOIST INFLOW...MODEST SFC HEATING
...AND INCREASING UVV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SCTD SUSTAINED STORMS
WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY
SVR HAIL.
TORNADO WATCH 959 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ILC001-005-009-013-027-051-061-083-117-119-121-133-135-149-157-
163-189-271800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0959.081227T1030Z-081227T1800Z/
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOND BROWN
CALHOUN CLINTON FAYETTE
GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN
MADISON MARION MONROE
MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH
ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON
KSC001-011-021-037-099-107-121-125-133-205-271800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0959.081227T1030Z-081227T1800Z/
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON CHEROKEE
CRAWFORD LABETTE LINN
MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
WILSON
MOC007-009-011-013-015-019-027-029-037-039-041-043-051-053-055-
057-059-065-067-071-073-077-083-085-089-091-093-097-099-101-103-
105-107-109-111-113-119-121-123-125-127-131-135-137-139-141-145-
149-151-153-159-161-163-167-169-173-175-179-183-185-186-187-189-
195-203-205-209-213-215-217-219-221-225-229-510-271800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0959.081227T1030Z-081227T1800Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BARRY BARTON
BATES BENTON BOONE
CALLAWAY CAMDEN CASS
CEDAR CHARITON CHRISTIAN
COLE COOPER CRAWFORD
DADE DALLAS DENT
DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GASCONADE
GREENE HENRY HICKORY
HOWARD HOWELL IRON
JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON
KNOX LACLEDE LAFAYETTE
LAWRENCE LEWIS LINCOLN
MACON MADISON MARIES
MARION MCDONALD MILLER
MONITEAU MONROE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN NEWTON OREGON
OSAGE OZARK PETTIS
PHELPS PIKE POLK
PULASKI RALLS RANDOLPH
REYNOLDS SALINE SHANNON
SHELBY ST. CHARLES ST. CLAIR
ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS STE. GENEVIEVE
STONE TANEY TEXAS
VERNON WARREN WASHINGTON
WEBSTER WRIGHT
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 959
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
[b]TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
MUCH OF MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 430 AM UNTIL NOON CST.[b]
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 130 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
ALTON ILLINOIS TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONETT MISSOURI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 955...WW 956...WW
957...WW 958...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ALONG COLD FRONT IN ERN KS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRONG AND POSSIBLY INCREASE AS FRONT CONTINUES ESE INTO MO BENEATH
STRENGTHENING UPR DIFFLUENCE/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE SRN
HI PLNS UPR VORT. ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM CNTRL OK SFC WAVE. OTHER STORMS MAY
SLOWLY INCREASE FROM NRN AR NNE INTO CNTRL MO...ALONG ERN SIDE OF
SSWLY LLJ. WITH SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THROUGHOUT
WW...COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MOIST INFLOW...MODEST SFC HEATING
...AND INCREASING UVV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SCTD SUSTAINED STORMS
WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY
SVR HAIL.
TORNADO WATCH 959 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ILC001-005-009-013-027-051-061-083-117-119-121-133-135-149-157-
163-189-271800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0959.081227T1030Z-081227T1800Z/
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOND BROWN
CALHOUN CLINTON FAYETTE
GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN
MADISON MARION MONROE
MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH
ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON
KSC001-011-021-037-099-107-121-125-133-205-271800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0959.081227T1030Z-081227T1800Z/
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON CHEROKEE
CRAWFORD LABETTE LINN
MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
WILSON
MOC007-009-011-013-015-019-027-029-037-039-041-043-051-053-055-
057-059-065-067-071-073-077-083-085-089-091-093-097-099-101-103-
105-107-109-111-113-119-121-123-125-127-131-135-137-139-141-145-
149-151-153-159-161-163-167-169-173-175-179-183-185-186-187-189-
195-203-205-209-213-215-217-219-221-225-229-510-271800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0959.081227T1030Z-081227T1800Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BARRY BARTON
BATES BENTON BOONE
CALLAWAY CAMDEN CASS
CEDAR CHARITON CHRISTIAN
COLE COOPER CRAWFORD
DADE DALLAS DENT
DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GASCONADE
GREENE HENRY HICKORY
HOWARD HOWELL IRON
JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON
KNOX LACLEDE LAFAYETTE
LAWRENCE LEWIS LINCOLN
MACON MADISON MARIES
MARION MCDONALD MILLER
MONITEAU MONROE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN NEWTON OREGON
OSAGE OZARK PETTIS
PHELPS PIKE POLK
PULASKI RALLS RANDOLPH
REYNOLDS SALINE SHANNON
SHELBY ST. CHARLES ST. CLAIR
ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS STE. GENEVIEVE
STONE TANEY TEXAS
VERNON WARREN WASHINGTON
WEBSTER WRIGHT
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
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Dave
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 960
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
635 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 635 AM UNTIL
200 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 120 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
HARRISON ARKANSAS TO 60 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF DE QUEEN
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 956. WATCH NUMBER 956 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
635 AM CST. CONTINUE...WW 957...WW 958...WW 959...
DISCUSSION...BAND OF SUSTAINED TSTMS ALONG CNTRL OK COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E INTO WRN AR BY LATE MORNING...AND INTO CNTRL
AR BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS ASSOCIATED UPR VORT NOW ENTERING W TX
CONTINUES STEADILY EWD. STRENGTHENING UVV/WIND FIELD AHEAD OF
VORT...AND MODEST SFC HEATING...SHOULD MAINTAIN/ENHANCE ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LVL
FLOW MAY ALSO SPAWN SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS E OF THE FRONTAL BAND.
STRENGTH OF LOW LVL SHEAR AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW WILL
SUPPORT TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO SMALL BOWS WITH HIGH
WIND/HAIL...GIVEN FAVORABLE STORM MODE AND EVEN MODEST SFC HEATING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23050.
...CORFIDI
635 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
TORNADO WATCH 960 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC005-007-009-015-019-023-029-033-045-047-049-051-057-059-061-
063-065-071-081-083-087-089-097-099-101-105-109-113-115-119-125-
127-129-131-133-135-137-141-143-149-272000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0960.081227T1235Z-081227T2000Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CLARK CLEBURNE
CONWAY CRAWFORD FAULKNER
FRANKLIN FULTON GARLAND
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JOHNSON
LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MADISON
MARION MONTGOMERY NEVADA
NEWTON PERRY PIKE
POLK POPE PULASKI
SALINE SCOTT SEARCY
SEBASTIAN SEVIER SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
YELL
OKC001-005-013-021-023-029-041-061-069-077-079-089-091-095-101-
121-127-135-272000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0960.081227T1235Z-081227T2000Z/
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL
DELAWARE HASKELL JOHNSTON
LATIMER LE FLORE MARSHALL
MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE
PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 960
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
635 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 635 AM UNTIL
200 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 120 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
HARRISON ARKANSAS TO 60 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF DE QUEEN
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 956. WATCH NUMBER 956 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
635 AM CST. CONTINUE...WW 957...WW 958...WW 959...
DISCUSSION...BAND OF SUSTAINED TSTMS ALONG CNTRL OK COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E INTO WRN AR BY LATE MORNING...AND INTO CNTRL
AR BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS ASSOCIATED UPR VORT NOW ENTERING W TX
CONTINUES STEADILY EWD. STRENGTHENING UVV/WIND FIELD AHEAD OF
VORT...AND MODEST SFC HEATING...SHOULD MAINTAIN/ENHANCE ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LVL
FLOW MAY ALSO SPAWN SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS E OF THE FRONTAL BAND.
STRENGTH OF LOW LVL SHEAR AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW WILL
SUPPORT TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO SMALL BOWS WITH HIGH
WIND/HAIL...GIVEN FAVORABLE STORM MODE AND EVEN MODEST SFC HEATING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23050.
...CORFIDI
635 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
TORNADO WATCH 960 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC005-007-009-015-019-023-029-033-045-047-049-051-057-059-061-
063-065-071-081-083-087-089-097-099-101-105-109-113-115-119-125-
127-129-131-133-135-137-141-143-149-272000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0960.081227T1235Z-081227T2000Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BENTON BOONE
CARROLL CLARK CLEBURNE
CONWAY CRAWFORD FAULKNER
FRANKLIN FULTON GARLAND
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JOHNSON
LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MADISON
MARION MONTGOMERY NEVADA
NEWTON PERRY PIKE
POLK POPE PULASKI
SALINE SCOTT SEARCY
SEBASTIAN SEVIER SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
YELL
OKC001-005-013-021-023-029-041-061-069-077-079-089-091-095-101-
121-127-135-272000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0960.081227T1235Z-081227T2000Z/
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN
CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL
DELAWARE HASKELL JOHNSTON
LATIMER LE FLORE MARSHALL
MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE
PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 961
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
740 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 740 AM UNTIL
200 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
PARIS TEXAS TO 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF TEMPLE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 957...WW 958...WW
959...WW 960...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT IN N TX AS ASSOCIATED UPR VORT...NOW ENTERING
W TX...CONTINUES ENEWD. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY
PASS N OF THE RED RIVER...COMBINATION OF WEAK SFC HEATING AND WEAKLY
CONFLUENT FLOW EXPECTED TO FOSTER DEVELOPMENT. STRENGTH OF SHEAR
/0-1 KM VALUES AOA 40 KT/ AND RICH MOISTURE INFLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES...DESPITE MODEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LIKELY
QUASI-LINEAR PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
...CORFIDI
TORNADO WATCH 961 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC073-091-272000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0961.081227T1340Z-081227T2000Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAFAYETTE MILLER
LAC015-017-272000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0961.081227T1340Z-081227T2000Z/
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO
TXC001-027-035-037-063-067-073-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-139-
143-145-147-159-161-181-183-193-203-213-217-221-223-231-251-257-
277-281-289-293-309-315-331-333-343-349-365-367-379-387-395-397-
401-423-425-439-449-459-467-497-499-272000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0961.081227T1340Z-081227T2000Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
CHEROKEE COLLIN COMANCHE
COOKE CORYELL DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
ERATH FALLS FANNIN
FRANKLIN FREESTONE GRAYSON
GREGG HAMILTON HARRISON
HENDERSON HILL HOOD
HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON
KAUFMAN LAMAR LAMPASAS
LEON LIMESTONE MARION
MCLENNAN MILAM MILLS
MORRIS NAVARRO PANOLA
PARKER RAINS RED RIVER
ROBERTSON ROCKWALL RUSK
SMITH SOMERVELL TARRANT
TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT
WISE WOOD
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 961
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
740 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 740 AM UNTIL
200 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
PARIS TEXAS TO 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF TEMPLE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 957...WW 958...WW
959...WW 960...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT IN N TX AS ASSOCIATED UPR VORT...NOW ENTERING
W TX...CONTINUES ENEWD. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY
PASS N OF THE RED RIVER...COMBINATION OF WEAK SFC HEATING AND WEAKLY
CONFLUENT FLOW EXPECTED TO FOSTER DEVELOPMENT. STRENGTH OF SHEAR
/0-1 KM VALUES AOA 40 KT/ AND RICH MOISTURE INFLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES...DESPITE MODEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LIKELY
QUASI-LINEAR PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
...CORFIDI
TORNADO WATCH 961 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC073-091-272000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0961.081227T1340Z-081227T2000Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAFAYETTE MILLER
LAC015-017-272000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0961.081227T1340Z-081227T2000Z/
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO
TXC001-027-035-037-063-067-073-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-139-
143-145-147-159-161-181-183-193-203-213-217-221-223-231-251-257-
277-281-289-293-309-315-331-333-343-349-365-367-379-387-395-397-
401-423-425-439-449-459-467-497-499-272000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0961.081227T1340Z-081227T2000Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
CHEROKEE COLLIN COMANCHE
COOKE CORYELL DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
ERATH FALLS FANNIN
FRANKLIN FREESTONE GRAYSON
GREGG HAMILTON HARRISON
HENDERSON HILL HOOD
HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON
KAUFMAN LAMAR LAMPASAS
LEON LIMESTONE MARION
MCLENNAN MILAM MILLS
MORRIS NAVARRO PANOLA
PARKER RAINS RED RIVER
ROBERTSON ROCKWALL RUSK
SMITH SOMERVELL TARRANT
TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT
WISE WOOD
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
806 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
EASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
* UNTIL 900 AM CST.
* AT 804 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR OSCEOLA...OR 21 MILES NORTHEAST OF EL DORADO
SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 80 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WARSAW BY 820 AM CST.
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINCOLN BY 825 AM CST.
COLE CAMP BY 835 AM CST.
THE TOWNS OF WHITAKERVILLE...EDMONSON AND CROCKERVILLE ARE ALSO IN
THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.
IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
LAT...LON 3854 9308 3807 9307 3806 9312 3807 9351
3795 9352 3791 9367 3808 9385 3821 9376
3821 9358 3822 9357 3822 9353 3851 9352
3851 9329 3855 9327
TIME...MOT...LOC 1406Z 230DEG 69KT 3807 9365
$$
CRAMER
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
806 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
EASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
* UNTIL 900 AM CST.
* AT 804 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR OSCEOLA...OR 21 MILES NORTHEAST OF EL DORADO
SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 80 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WARSAW BY 820 AM CST.
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINCOLN BY 825 AM CST.
COLE CAMP BY 835 AM CST.
THE TOWNS OF WHITAKERVILLE...EDMONSON AND CROCKERVILLE ARE ALSO IN
THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.
IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
LAT...LON 3854 9308 3807 9307 3806 9312 3807 9351
3795 9352 3791 9367 3808 9385 3821 9376
3821 9358 3822 9357 3822 9353 3851 9352
3851 9329 3855 9327
TIME...MOT...LOC 1406Z 230DEG 69KT 3807 9365
$$
CRAMER
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2530
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN OK...WRN AND CNTRL AR...SERN TWO
THIRDS OF MO...PARTS OF W CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 957...959...960...
VALID 271403Z - 271600Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
957...959...960...CONTINUES.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHEARED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING. BUT...ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO MAINTAIN FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE BAND EASTWARD INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY/
OZARK PLATEAU/ARKLATEX REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. BY 17-18Z...THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR/EAST OF
QUINCY IL...COLUMBIA AND SPRINGFIELD MO...INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF
TEXARKANA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH A
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET...WITH SOUTHERLY 850
MB WINDS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN FROM 60 TO 70+ KTS. STRONG TO
EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES WITH TORNADOES AND LOCALIZED VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITHIN THE LINE...PARTICULARLY AS THE MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO WARM MORE SUBSTANTIALLY LATER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AND...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE OUT OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
..KERR.. 12/27/2008
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...
TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34119656 35789535 37789412 39389269 39889192 40039053
38988939 36508962 33789152 33069257 33129511 34119656
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN OK...WRN AND CNTRL AR...SERN TWO
THIRDS OF MO...PARTS OF W CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 957...959...960...
VALID 271403Z - 271600Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
957...959...960...CONTINUES.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHEARED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING. BUT...ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO MAINTAIN FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE BAND EASTWARD INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY/
OZARK PLATEAU/ARKLATEX REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. BY 17-18Z...THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR/EAST OF
QUINCY IL...COLUMBIA AND SPRINGFIELD MO...INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF
TEXARKANA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH A
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET...WITH SOUTHERLY 850
MB WINDS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN FROM 60 TO 70+ KTS. STRONG TO
EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES WITH TORNADOES AND LOCALIZED VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITHIN THE LINE...PARTICULARLY AS THE MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO WARM MORE SUBSTANTIALLY LATER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AND...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE OUT OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
..KERR.. 12/27/2008
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...
TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34119656 35789535 37789412 39389269 39889192 40039053
38988939 36508962 33789152 33069257 33129511 34119656
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