Post-Christmas severe weather outbreak?

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 962
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1100 AM UNTIL
700 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST
PLAINS MISSOURI TO 10 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF MARSEILLES
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 959. WATCH NUMBER 959 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
1100 AM CST. CONTINUE...WW 960...WW 961...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE...BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED
LEWP/SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS WW THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXTREME LOW LEVEL SHEAR /50+ KT
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE/ AND STRENGTHENING DEEP ASCENT/SURFACE
PRESSURE FALL MAXIMUM WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES. RISK MAY BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT IN SRN PORTION
OF WW INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN PRECEDING SHALLOW MOIST
CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE OZARKS. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT
RECOVERY WITH MODEST HEATING MAY STILL SUSTAIN A RISK AHEAD OF MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23050.


...EVANS

[Dave]

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1134 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
NORTHERN JERSEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
NORTHWESTERN MACOUPIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS

* UNTIL 1215 PM CST

* AT 1128 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION 21 MILES WEST OF OLD
KANE...OR ABOUT 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ELSBERRY...MOVING EAST AT 55
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OLD KANE...
CARROLLTON...
JERSEYVILLE...
GREENFIELD...
KEMPER...

THE DESTRUCTION OF A BARN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN LINCOLN COUNTY
MISSOURI WITH THIS STORM. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION...TAKE
IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE!

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2536
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IL AND ECNTRL MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 962...

VALID 271746Z - 271915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 962 CONTINUES.

17Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRESSURE FALL AXIS OF ABOUT 1-MB PER HR FROM
WCNTRL IL TOWARD CHICAGO. MESOLOW HAS FORMED OVER WCNTRL IL WITH
1002 MB SYNOPTIC LOW OVER NERN MO. WARM FRONT HAS SLOWED NWD
PROGRESS...BUT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN CHICAGO METRO AREA.

WELL-DEVELOPED BOW ECHO WITH HISTORY OF DMGG WINDS WILL MOVE NEWD AT
50 KTS FROM WCNTRL IL INTO AT LEAST SRN CHICAGO METRO...PEORIA...
BLOOMINGTON/NORMAL...SPRINGFIELD...DECATUR AND KANKAKEE BEFORE 20Z.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ZONE OF DMGG WINDS...WITH
ANY BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLY PRODUCING ISOLD TORNADIC DMG
AND/OR MORE INTENSE WIND CHANNELS.

FARTHER S...QLCS HAS BROKEN INTO MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A
COUPLE CELLS EXHIBITING PERSISTENT LLVL ROTATION NOTED NEAR/N OF STL
METRO. WNC PROFILER JUST DOWNSTREAM EXHIBITS AROUND 530 M2/S2 0-1KM
SRH WITH VERY STRONG AMBIENT SHEAR. ALONG WITH DMGG WIND
THREATS...THE SHORT TERM TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED DOWNSTREAM
INTO ADJACENT WCNTRL IL.

ACROSS THE OZARKS/SERN MO...PRE-FRONTAL ISENTROPIC-DERIVED
CONVECTION HAS PRE-EMPTED INTENSIFICATION OF THE QLCS JUST SW OF
KSTL. BUT...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT LEADING EDGE OF THE
STRONGER DCVA WAS SPREADING QUICKLY NEWD AND REKINDLING OF THE LINE
HAS OCCURRED OVER SCNTRL MO. AS A RESULT...DMGG WINDS/ISOLD TORNADO
THREATS WILL INCREASE DOWNSTREAM INTO SERN MO DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

..RACY.. 12/27/2008


ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...

LAT...LON 39429051 41289004 41988894 41928777 41468722 40538807
39198931 38308993 36999086 36609186 36709298 38349151
39429051

[Dave]

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1151 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWESTERN PEORIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CST.

* AT 1152 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 2 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CANTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TRIVOLI...
GLASFORD...
HANNA CITY...

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES...IS LIKELY IN THE WARNED AREA.

[Dave]

WWUS53 KLSX 271756
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1156 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

ILC061-083-117-271815-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0098.000000T0000Z-081227T1815Z/
JERSEY IL-GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-
1157 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM CST FOR
NORTHWESTERN MACOUPIN...SOUTHERN GREENE AND NORTHEASTERN JERSEY
COUNTIES...

AT 1153 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CARROLLTON...OR 9
MILES NORTH OF JERSEYVILLE...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE TORNADO INCLUDE...ROCKBRIDGE...
GREENFIELD...KEMPER...CHESTERFIELD...HETTICK AND SCOTTVILLE.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Wind damage reports near Monet/Barry County, near poster wx247


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
NWUS53 KSGF 271635
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1035 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 E MONETT 36.92N 93.91W
12/27/2008 BARRY MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE LIMBS DOWN AND SHINGLES LIFETD OFF ROOF


&&

$$

SRUNNELS



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
NWUS53 KSGF 271633
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1033 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM TSTM WND GST 5 SW MONETT 36.87N 93.99W
12/27/2008 E60 MPH BARRY MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE TREE DOWN AND BARN SIDING DAMAGED NEAR PULASKIFIELD

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1212 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MARSHALL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN WOODFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN PEORIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN STARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 100 PM CST.

* AT 1213 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTH OF
PRINCEVILLE...OR ABOUT 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF PEORIA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PRINCEVILLE...
ROME...
WYOMING...
SPRING BAY...
CAMP GROVE...
CHILLICOTHE...
CASTLETON...
SPARLAND...

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...DUNLAP...HENRY...LACON...
MINONK...TOLUCA...VARNA AND WASHBURN.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 39 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 24 AND 32.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 78 AND 84.

[Dave]

All Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (too many to post)

http://www.weather.gov/view/national.php?prod=SVR

Or

Warnings updated every 2 minutes:

http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
NORTHWEST INDIANA
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL
700 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MARSEILLES ILLINOIS TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF VALPARAISO INDIANA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 960...WW 961...WW 962...

DISCUSSION...NARROW LINE OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS CONTINUES TO RACE NEWD
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SRN HALF
OF THE CHICAGO METRO AND INTO FAR NWRN IND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT FROM THE
STRONGLY-FORCED LINE...ALTHOUGH EXTREME LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS AT THE SURFACE MAY SUPPORT A RISK OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 300.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23050.


...EVANS

[Dave]

[Dave]

WUUS53 KILX 271839
SVRILX
ILC021-139-167-173-271945-
/O.NEW.KILX.SV.W.0280.081227T1839Z-081227T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1239 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWESTERN MOULTRIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
EXTREME SOUTHERN SANGAMON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 145 PM CST.

* AT 1240 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MORRISONVILLE...OR ABOUT 14 MILES WEST OF NOKOMIS...AND WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TAYLORVILLE...
PANA...
ASSUMPTION...
WESTERVELT...
FINDLAY...

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS WARNING INCLUDE...SHELBYVILLE...STEWARDSON...
TOWER HILL AND LAKEWOOD.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA.

---------------------
Winds in 95% of all thunderstorm warnings issued so far range from 60 to 80 mph.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1244 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SANGAMON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN MACON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
WESTERN DE WITT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CST.

* AT 1245 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT PULASKI...OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTH OF LINCOLN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHESTNUT...
KENNEY...
BEASON...
CLINTON...
WAPELLA...


---------------
This warning also includes the south & east side of the city of Lincoln IL.

[Dave]

Preliminary Report:

TORNADO 1633 4 NW LIBERTY ADAMS IL 3992 9116 ROOFS OF 3 HOMES LIFTED AND THROWN 500 YARDS TO THE NORTHEAST. (LSX)

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1253 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN SANGAMON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
WESTERN MACON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 130 PM CST.

* AT 1253 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES EAST OF
PAWNEE...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF VIRDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EDINBURG...
STONINGTON...
MOUNT AUBURN...
BLUE MOUND...
NIANTIC...
ILLIOPOLIS...
MACON...
HARRISTOWN...

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...KINCAID AND WARRENSBURG.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 55 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 83 AND 85.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 120 AND 140.

[CrazyC83]

SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 964
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN ILLINOIS
EASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL
700 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALTON
ILLINOIS TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF FARMINGTON MISSOURI. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 960...WW 961...WW
962...WW 963...

DISCUSSION...RETRANSMISSION OF TORNADO WATCH FOR THIS THREAT AREA
FROM WW 962.
NARROW LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED AND PRECEDING SUPERCELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THIS
REGION FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22050.


...EVANS

[Dave]

Getting active again...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
120 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MOULTRIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
MACON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN DE WITT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
PIATT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
EXTREME WESTERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CST.

* AT 120 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MACON...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DECATUR...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DECATUR...
LONG CREEK...
MOUNT ZION...
FORSYTH...
OREANA...
CERRO GORDO...
ARGENTA...
HAMMOND...

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BEMENT...HARRISTOWN...
MONTICELLO AND WHITE HEATH.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2537
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...AR...NERN TX...NRN LA...WRN TN AND NWRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 960...961...

VALID 271920Z - 271945Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 960...961...CONTINUES.

SPECIAL 18Z LZK/SHV SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 55 KTS
WITH STRONGLY CURVED 0-3KM HODOGRAPHS OWING TO THE NEARLY 50/70 KT
H85/H7 WINDS RESPECTIVELY. NONETHELESS...TSTMS HAVE HAD A TOUGH
TIME REMAINING ORGANIZED...PRESUMABLY OWING TO EXTREME SHEAR AND
RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY. MOREOVER...WARMING IN THE H85-H7 LAYER
HAS BECOME HOSTILE TO SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE KSHV REGION.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A MIDLVL DRY SLOT PUNCHING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL
OK...LIKELY INDICATIVE OF THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCD
WITH THE UPR LOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NEWD INTO NW
AR/CNTRL-SRN MO...LIKELY KEEPING THE HIGHER THREATS FOR SVR STORMS
ACROSS THE MID-MS VLY. HOWEVER...GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THIS
IMPULSE...PRESENCE OF AT LEAST A STRONG QLCS AND MODESTLY BUOYANT
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WILL KEEP A SVR THREAT ALIVE INTO THE MID-SOUTH.
FARTHER S ACROSS LA/NERN TX...WHILE A DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...A NEW WW IS NOT LIKELY.

IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE MODE...STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WILL
MAINTAIN LINEAR MODES...BUT SUCH STRONG SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STORMS AND LEWPS. AS SUCH...ISOLD TORNADOES/DMGG
WINDS WILL REMAIN PSBL ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN AR AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR E AS WRN TN/NWRN MS.

..RACY.. 12/27/2008


ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 31769548 36379270 36308904 34768933 32889118 31969219
31769548

[Dave]