Post-Christmas severe weather outbreak?
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INCLUDING THE BOOTHEEL
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
700 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOUNT
VERNON ILLINOIS TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 960. WATCH NUMBER 960 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
150 PM CST. CONTINUE...WW 961...WW 962...WW 963...WW 964...
DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE RACING ENEWD
AHEAD OF STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AS DEEP ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
EJECTING UPPER TROUGH SKIRTS THE AREA. WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY STRONG
AND WILL LIKELY MIX DOWNWARD FROM CONVECTIVE PROCESSES...SUPPORTING
THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE UNTIL COOLING/STABILIZING OF BOUNDARY LAYER
COMMENCES LATER THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...EXTREME SHEAR WARRANTS
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
...EVANS
DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE RACING ENEWD
AHEAD OF STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AS DEEP ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
EJECTING UPPER TROUGH SKIRTS THE AREA. WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY STRONG
AND WILL LIKELY MIX DOWNWARD FROM CONVECTIVE PROCESSES...SUPPORTING
THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE UNTIL COOLING/STABILIZING OF BOUNDARY LAYER
COMMENCES LATER THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...EXTREME SHEAR WARRANTS
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
...EVANS
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 271948
WOU5
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
TORNADO WATCH 965 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC005-021-023-029-031-037-045-049-051-055-059-063-065-067-075-
085-089-093-105-111-115-117-119-121-125-129-135-137-141-145-147-
149-280100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0965.081227T1950Z-081228T0100Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER CLAY CLEBURNE
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CROSS
FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND
GREENE HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE
IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE
LONOKE MARION MISSISSIPPI
PERRY POINSETT POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH
SALINE SEARCY SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-280100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0965.081227T1950Z-081228T0100Z/
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MASSAC PERRY POPE
PULASKI SALINE UNION
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
KYC007-039-075-083-105-139-145-280100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0965.081227T1950Z-081228T0100Z/
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON
MCCRACKEN
MOC017-023-031-035-069-133-143-155-157-181-201-207-223-280100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0965.081227T1950Z-081228T0100Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PEMISCOT PERRY
RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD
WAYNE
ATTN...WFO...LZK...PAH...MEG...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 965 TORNADO AR IL KY MO 271950Z - 280100Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15NW MVN/MOUNT VERNON IL/ - 15S LIT/LITTLE ROCK AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /70WNW PXV - 11SSW LIT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
REPLACES WW 960..AR OK
LAT...LON 38478776 34509100 34509345 38479036
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 965 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INCLUDING THE BOOTHEEL
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
700 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOUNT
VERNON ILLINOIS TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 960. WATCH NUMBER 960 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
150 PM CST. CONTINUE...WW 961...WW 962...WW 963...WW 964...
DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE RACING ENEWD
AHEAD OF STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AS DEEP ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
EJECTING UPPER TROUGH SKIRTS THE AREA. WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY STRONG
AND WILL LIKELY MIX DOWNWARD FROM CONVECTIVE PROCESSES...SUPPORTING
THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE UNTIL COOLING/STABILIZING OF BOUNDARY LAYER
COMMENCES LATER THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...EXTREME SHEAR WARRANTS
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
...EVANS
DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE RACING ENEWD
AHEAD OF STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AS DEEP ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
EJECTING UPPER TROUGH SKIRTS THE AREA. WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY STRONG
AND WILL LIKELY MIX DOWNWARD FROM CONVECTIVE PROCESSES...SUPPORTING
THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE UNTIL COOLING/STABILIZING OF BOUNDARY LAYER
COMMENCES LATER THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...EXTREME SHEAR WARRANTS
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
...EVANS
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 271948
WOU5
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
TORNADO WATCH 965 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC005-021-023-029-031-037-045-049-051-055-059-063-065-067-075-
085-089-093-105-111-115-117-119-121-125-129-135-137-141-145-147-
149-280100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0965.081227T1950Z-081228T0100Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER CLAY CLEBURNE
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CROSS
FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND
GREENE HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE
IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE
LONOKE MARION MISSISSIPPI
PERRY POINSETT POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH
SALINE SEARCY SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-280100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0965.081227T1950Z-081228T0100Z/
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MASSAC PERRY POPE
PULASKI SALINE UNION
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
KYC007-039-075-083-105-139-145-280100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0965.081227T1950Z-081228T0100Z/
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON
MCCRACKEN
MOC017-023-031-035-069-133-143-155-157-181-201-207-223-280100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0965.081227T1950Z-081228T0100Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PEMISCOT PERRY
RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD
WAYNE
ATTN...WFO...LZK...PAH...MEG...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 965 TORNADO AR IL KY MO 271950Z - 280100Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15NW MVN/MOUNT VERNON IL/ - 15S LIT/LITTLE ROCK AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /70WNW PXV - 11SSW LIT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
REPLACES WW 960..AR OK
LAT...LON 38478776 34509100 34509345 38479036
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 965 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
0 likes
-
Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
Ok we'll do that again...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2538
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL...SWRN LWR MI AND WRN IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 271954Z - 272200Z
TWO LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERNS HAVE EVOLVED FROM SERN MO NEWD INTO
CHICAGO EARLY THIS AFTN WITH LARGER SCALE APEXES NE OF KSTL AND JUST
SW OF KANKAKEE. CONSIDERABLE WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN ASSOCD WITH THE
SMALLER SCALE BOW ECHOES THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH CNTRL IL
ASSOCD WITH THE NRN-MOST LEWP. FARTHER SW NEAR STL...APEX OF THE
SRN-MOST LEWP HAS BEEN PARTIALLY ELEVATED ATOP COOLER OUTFLOW
EMANATING FROM THE CNTRL IL COMPLEX.
UPSTREAM 18Z SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THAT THE H85-H7 SSWLY FLOW WAS
INCREASING DRAMATICALLY NOW THAT THE UPR SYSTEM OVER OK WAS
BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE NEWD. 50-70 KT LOW-/MID-LVL JET CORES WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ERN IL...IND AND SRN LWR MI THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...BOOSTING THE VERTICAL AND LLVL SHEAR PROFILES.
AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM HAS CONTINUED TO MOISTEN THIS AFTN. WHILE NOT
TERRIBLY BUOYANT...THE INCREASING LARGER SCALE ASCENT WILL BOOST
FRONTAL CIRCULATIONS. SUCH STRONG SHEAR/ASCENT WILL PROBABLY ALLOW
PORTIONS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LEWPS TO EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE
NARROW-FORCED BANDS OF TSTMS THAT WILL RAPIDLY TRANSLATE OUT OF ERN
IL INTO WRN IND AND POSSIBLY SRN LWR MI WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS. ISOLD
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..RACY.. 12/27/2008
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2538
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL...SWRN LWR MI AND WRN IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 271954Z - 272200Z
TWO LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERNS HAVE EVOLVED FROM SERN MO NEWD INTO
CHICAGO EARLY THIS AFTN WITH LARGER SCALE APEXES NE OF KSTL AND JUST
SW OF KANKAKEE. CONSIDERABLE WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN ASSOCD WITH THE
SMALLER SCALE BOW ECHOES THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH CNTRL IL
ASSOCD WITH THE NRN-MOST LEWP. FARTHER SW NEAR STL...APEX OF THE
SRN-MOST LEWP HAS BEEN PARTIALLY ELEVATED ATOP COOLER OUTFLOW
EMANATING FROM THE CNTRL IL COMPLEX.
UPSTREAM 18Z SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THAT THE H85-H7 SSWLY FLOW WAS
INCREASING DRAMATICALLY NOW THAT THE UPR SYSTEM OVER OK WAS
BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE NEWD. 50-70 KT LOW-/MID-LVL JET CORES WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ERN IL...IND AND SRN LWR MI THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...BOOSTING THE VERTICAL AND LLVL SHEAR PROFILES.
AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM HAS CONTINUED TO MOISTEN THIS AFTN. WHILE NOT
TERRIBLY BUOYANT...THE INCREASING LARGER SCALE ASCENT WILL BOOST
FRONTAL CIRCULATIONS. SUCH STRONG SHEAR/ASCENT WILL PROBABLY ALLOW
PORTIONS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LEWPS TO EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE
NARROW-FORCED BANDS OF TSTMS THAT WILL RAPIDLY TRANSLATE OUT OF ERN
IL INTO WRN IND AND POSSIBLY SRN LWR MI WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS. ISOLD
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..RACY.. 12/27/2008
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SPC AC 271959
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
VALID 272000Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN AR/SERN MO THROUGH
SRN IL TO FAR SWRN IND...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDS THE MODERATE RISK
AREA FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...
...ARKLATEX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...
GIVEN THE NWD RETURN OF THE UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST WARM SECTOR INTO
THE MIDWEST/SRN LOWER MI...AND A WELL DEFINED LEWP PER REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAICS EXTENDING INTO NRN IL...THIS OUTLOOK WILL INCREASE
SEVERE WIND/TORNADO PROBABILITIES AND CATEGORICAL MODERATE/SLIGHT
RISK AREAS NEWD. THE MODERATE RISK NOW EXTENDS FROM NERN AR THROUGH
SERN MO TO SRN IL AND FAR SWRN IND.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE UNSEASONABLY WARM/
MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NNEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS NERN MO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
ENEWD THROUGH NRN IL TO SRN LOWER MI...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
NOW INTO THE LOWER-MID 50S. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S HAVE REACHED
AS FAR N AS CENTRAL IL...WHILE MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND ATTENDANT NERN MO SURFACE LOW WILL UNDERGO A DEEPENING PROCESS
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
TRACKING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
ENHANCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR AS 70+ KT SSWLY LLJ CONTINUES
TO LIFT OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 100+ KT H5 JET NOW TRANSLATING ACROSS OK
TO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY.
STRONGLY FORCED SYSTEM COMBINED WITH ATTENDANT STRONG DEEP LAYER
WIND FIELDS/SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LEWP
STRUCTURE /ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER/ TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. THIS LEWP/SQUALL LINE WILL SPREAD ENEWD
ACROSS THE OZARKS...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS INTO SRN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE EVENING. IN ADDITION TO STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS ACCOMPANYING
THE FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /SFC-1 KM 50-60
KT/ AS INDICATED BY 18Z LIT/SPI SOUNDINGS WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ALONG THE LEWP WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
FARTHER SSW...LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAT FARTHER N AS STRONGER FORCING LIFTS NWD AWAY FROM E
TX/LA. HOWEVER...MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND AROUND 40-45 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS FAR SRN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT SPREADS EWD.
..PETERS.. 12/27/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2007Z (3:07PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
VALID 272000Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN AR/SERN MO THROUGH
SRN IL TO FAR SWRN IND...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDS THE MODERATE RISK
AREA FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...
...ARKLATEX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...
GIVEN THE NWD RETURN OF THE UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST WARM SECTOR INTO
THE MIDWEST/SRN LOWER MI...AND A WELL DEFINED LEWP PER REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAICS EXTENDING INTO NRN IL...THIS OUTLOOK WILL INCREASE
SEVERE WIND/TORNADO PROBABILITIES AND CATEGORICAL MODERATE/SLIGHT
RISK AREAS NEWD. THE MODERATE RISK NOW EXTENDS FROM NERN AR THROUGH
SERN MO TO SRN IL AND FAR SWRN IND.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE UNSEASONABLY WARM/
MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NNEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS NERN MO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
ENEWD THROUGH NRN IL TO SRN LOWER MI...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
NOW INTO THE LOWER-MID 50S. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S HAVE REACHED
AS FAR N AS CENTRAL IL...WHILE MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND ATTENDANT NERN MO SURFACE LOW WILL UNDERGO A DEEPENING PROCESS
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
TRACKING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
ENHANCED ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR AS 70+ KT SSWLY LLJ CONTINUES
TO LIFT OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 100+ KT H5 JET NOW TRANSLATING ACROSS OK
TO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY.
STRONGLY FORCED SYSTEM COMBINED WITH ATTENDANT STRONG DEEP LAYER
WIND FIELDS/SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LEWP
STRUCTURE /ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER/ TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. THIS LEWP/SQUALL LINE WILL SPREAD ENEWD
ACROSS THE OZARKS...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS INTO SRN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE EVENING. IN ADDITION TO STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS ACCOMPANYING
THE FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /SFC-1 KM 50-60
KT/ AS INDICATED BY 18Z LIT/SPI SOUNDINGS WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ALONG THE LEWP WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
FARTHER SSW...LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAT FARTHER N AS STRONGER FORCING LIFTS NWD AWAY FROM E
TX/LA. HOWEVER...MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND AROUND 40-45 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS FAR SRN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT SPREADS EWD.
..PETERS.. 12/27/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2007Z (3:07PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
0 likes
-
southerngale
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 27418
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
Re: Post-Christmas severe weather outbreak?
It sure has been windy overnight and so far today. The wind chimes haven't stopped chiming.
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
222 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
TXZ180>182-201-272130-
NEWTON TX-JASPER TX-TYLER TX-HARDIN TX-
222 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHWESTERN NEWTON...NORTHERN
JASPER...TYLER AND HARDIN COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CST...
AT 220 PM CST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS INDICATED BY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR EXTENDING FROM CENTER TO
LUFKIN TO CONROE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
* THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
CHESTER BY 245 PM CST
ROCKLAND AND COLMESNEIL BY 300 PM CST
WOODVILLE BY 310 PM CST
THICKET AND IVANHOE BY 315 PM CST
WARREN...HILLISTER AND SAM RAYBURN DAM BY 320 PM CST
JASPER AND VILLAGE MILLS BY 325 PM CST
FARRSVILLE BY 330 PM CST
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. THESE WINDS
MAY BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND CAUSE MINOR BUILDING DAMAGE.
RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.
$$
SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
247 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
.DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON TAP TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS STILL ON THE LOW SIDE WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY..BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD STILL IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO
BE WATCHING RADAR FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT TODAY HAS BEEN REPORTS OF STRONG...
DAMAGING NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WILL BE ISSUING SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK FOR OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WITH THIS EVENT...SO KEEPING POPS LOW AT THIS POINT.
ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT
AGAIN...SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE TO TAP FROM...SO POPS STILL LOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 52 60 47 67 44 / 80 10 20 10 10
KBPT 52 60 45 68 44 / 80 10 20 10 10
KAEX 47 60 41 66 37 / 80 10 10 10 10
KLFT 54 62 48 65 42 / 80 20 20 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
CALCASIEU...CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...
ORANGE...TYLER.
GM...NONE.
0 likes
Back later-
Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2540
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL IND SWWD INTO NERN AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 962...964...965...
VALID 272146Z - 272315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
962...964...965...CONTINUES.
BOW ECHO NW OF KHUF ON THE IND/IL BORDER APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS
IT BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE STRONGER BUOYANCY AXIS LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER
THE LWR OH/MID-MS VLY. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH A VERY SHORT-TERM THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS/SMALL HAIL
INTO WCNTRL IND THROUGH ABOUT 23Z.
OTHERWISE...FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TSTM LINE FROM SRN IL INTO SE
MO HAS SLOWED...RESULTING IN A SEGMENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
BECOMING ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE UPR FLOW REGIME. THE
CORRIDOR FROM SPARTA-PARIS IL COULD SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF TRAINING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE COULD STILL BE A BRIEF ISOLD
TORNADO/DMGG WIND GUST WITH THE MORE N-S ORIENTED LINE SEGMENT THAT
WILL PROGRESS ENE THROUGH EXTREME SERN MO AND SCNTRL IL.
TSTMS HAVE PULSED TO SVR LIMITS OCCASIONALLY ACROSS AR THIS
AFTN...BUT HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO OVERCOME THE VERY STRONG SHEAR.
HERE...LARGER SCALE SUPPORT HAS BEEN COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN
FARTHER N...SO DESPITE THE STRONG CDFNT CIRCULATION AND PRESENCE OF
STRONG SHEAR...UPDRAFTS HAVE NOT BEEN SUSTAINED VERY LONG. BUT...A
CONTINUED BRIEF SVR THREAT CONSISTING OF DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE STORMS CONTINUE EWD TOWARD
THE MS RVR.
..RACY.. 12/27/2008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL IND SWWD INTO NERN AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 962...964...965...
VALID 272146Z - 272315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
962...964...965...CONTINUES.
BOW ECHO NW OF KHUF ON THE IND/IL BORDER APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS
IT BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE STRONGER BUOYANCY AXIS LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER
THE LWR OH/MID-MS VLY. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH A VERY SHORT-TERM THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS/SMALL HAIL
INTO WCNTRL IND THROUGH ABOUT 23Z.
OTHERWISE...FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TSTM LINE FROM SRN IL INTO SE
MO HAS SLOWED...RESULTING IN A SEGMENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
BECOMING ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE UPR FLOW REGIME. THE
CORRIDOR FROM SPARTA-PARIS IL COULD SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF TRAINING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE COULD STILL BE A BRIEF ISOLD
TORNADO/DMGG WIND GUST WITH THE MORE N-S ORIENTED LINE SEGMENT THAT
WILL PROGRESS ENE THROUGH EXTREME SERN MO AND SCNTRL IL.
TSTMS HAVE PULSED TO SVR LIMITS OCCASIONALLY ACROSS AR THIS
AFTN...BUT HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO OVERCOME THE VERY STRONG SHEAR.
HERE...LARGER SCALE SUPPORT HAS BEEN COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN
FARTHER N...SO DESPITE THE STRONG CDFNT CIRCULATION AND PRESENCE OF
STRONG SHEAR...UPDRAFTS HAVE NOT BEEN SUSTAINED VERY LONG. BUT...A
CONTINUED BRIEF SVR THREAT CONSISTING OF DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE STORMS CONTINUE EWD TOWARD
THE MS RVR.
..RACY.. 12/27/2008
0 likes
-
Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
517 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL FOUNTAIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHERN TIPPECANOE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
* UNTIL 600 PM EST
* AT 516 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WINGATE...
OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF CRAWFORDSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65
MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SHADELAND BY 525 PM EST...
DAYTON BY 530 PM EST...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 163 AND 169.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 22 AND 25.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
517 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL FOUNTAIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHERN TIPPECANOE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
* UNTIL 600 PM EST
* AT 516 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WINGATE...
OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF CRAWFORDSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65
MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SHADELAND BY 525 PM EST...
DAYTON BY 530 PM EST...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 163 AND 169.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 22 AND 25.
0 likes
-
Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
532 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CLINTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FRANKFORT...
* UNTIL 615 PM EST
* AT 529 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MULBERRY...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ROSSVILLE BY 540 PM EST...
MICHIGANTOWN BY 545 PM EST...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 158 AND 160.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
532 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CLINTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FRANKFORT...
* UNTIL 615 PM EST
* AT 529 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MULBERRY...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ROSSVILLE BY 540 PM EST...
MICHIGANTOWN BY 545 PM EST...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 158 AND 160.
0 likes
-
Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
434 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
* UNTIL 515 PM CST
* AT 431 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION 14 MILES WEST OF
IRVINGTON...OR ABOUT NEAR NASHVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
IRVINGTON...
CENTRALIA...
WAMAC...
CENTRAL CITY...
SHATTUC...
ODIN...
SANDOVAL...
SALEM...
OMEGA...
KINMUNDY...
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
434 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
* UNTIL 515 PM CST
* AT 431 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION 14 MILES WEST OF
IRVINGTON...OR ABOUT NEAR NASHVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
IRVINGTON...
CENTRALIA...
WAMAC...
CENTRAL CITY...
SHATTUC...
ODIN...
SANDOVAL...
SALEM...
OMEGA...
KINMUNDY...
0 likes
-
Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2541
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0506 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN IND SWD THROUGH WRN PARTS OF KY AND
TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 272306Z - 280030Z
THE THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E
OF WW/S 962...964 AND 965 AS EARLY AS 2330 TO 0000Z. A NEW WW WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
QUASI-LINEAR MCS /QLCS/ WITH EMBEDDED SMALL-SCALE BOWS CONTINUES EWD
THROUGH PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEYS AS OF 2250Z WITH
THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF MDH TO
NE OF PBF. OVERALL QLCS MOTION IS GENERALLY 270/25 KT...HOWEVER
SEGMENTS IN THE LINE /NAMELY OVER NERN AR/ ARE ACCELERATING MORE
RAPIDLY EWD AT 40-45 KT.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL THERMAL AND MOISTURE
AXES ARE NEARLY COINCIDENT...EXTENDING ALONG THE MS RIVER NWD INTO
SRN IL. HERE...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MLCAPE RANGES
FROM 500-700 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO 200-300 J/KG
OVER SRN IL. THIS INSTABILITY IS LIKELY NEAR PEAK VALUES GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY...WITH A SLOW DECREASING TREND EXPECTED WITH THE ONSET
OF NIGHT FALL. THIS DECREASING INSTABILITY MAY TEND TO BE OFFSET TO
SOME DEGREE BY INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UVV IN ADVANCE OF
POTENT UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.
THUS...EXPECT QLCS TO BE MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS EWD
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS AND
EMBEDDED BOW ECHO STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
..MEAD.. 12/27/2008
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...
LAT...LON 35148977 36328978 38628841 39628721 39818635 39568597
37358718 35488822 35008889 35148977
0 likes
-
Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
SPC AC 280043
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
VALID 280100Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE WRN TN/OH VALLEYS...
...WRN TN NWD INTO THE WRN OH VALLEY...
AT EARLY EVENING...AN INTENSE AND FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WAS
TRACKING NEWD ACROSS NWRN MO...WITH A 110 KT MID LEVEL JET LOCATED
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FROM SWRN MO INTO ERN IA. THE UPPER
TROUGH WAS AIDING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A SQUALL LINE FROM CENTRAL
IND SWWD INTO WRN TN. ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE
LINE...WITH MUCAPES RANGING FROM 100 J/KG OVER INDIANA TO AROUND
1000 J/KG IN WRN TN. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS NWD AND THE SQUALL
LINE GRADUALLY MOVES INTO WEAKER INSTABILITY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN KY...GIVEN 1
SRH VALUES AROUND 500 M2/S2. HOWEVER...THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS ANY TORNADO OCCURRENCE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
...LOWER MS VALLEY...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN A BAND FROM THE MS RIVER SWWD INTO FAR
SERN TX. WHILE MUCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR
40 KT ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT HAD
LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THIS AREA. ALSO THIS AREA WAS LOCATED ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET...WHICH WAS RESULTING IN A WARM LAYER
BETWEEN 750-700 MB PER JAN/LCH SOUNDINGS. THE FACTORS ABOVE SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO.
..IMY.. 12/28/2008
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008
VALID 280100Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE WRN TN/OH VALLEYS...
...WRN TN NWD INTO THE WRN OH VALLEY...
AT EARLY EVENING...AN INTENSE AND FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WAS
TRACKING NEWD ACROSS NWRN MO...WITH A 110 KT MID LEVEL JET LOCATED
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FROM SWRN MO INTO ERN IA. THE UPPER
TROUGH WAS AIDING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A SQUALL LINE FROM CENTRAL
IND SWWD INTO WRN TN. ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE
LINE...WITH MUCAPES RANGING FROM 100 J/KG OVER INDIANA TO AROUND
1000 J/KG IN WRN TN. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS NWD AND THE SQUALL
LINE GRADUALLY MOVES INTO WEAKER INSTABILITY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN KY...GIVEN 1
SRH VALUES AROUND 500 M2/S2. HOWEVER...THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS ANY TORNADO OCCURRENCE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
...LOWER MS VALLEY...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN A BAND FROM THE MS RIVER SWWD INTO FAR
SERN TX. WHILE MUCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR
40 KT ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT HAD
LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THIS AREA. ALSO THIS AREA WAS LOCATED ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET...WHICH WAS RESULTING IN A WARM LAYER
BETWEEN 750-700 MB PER JAN/LCH SOUNDINGS. THE FACTORS ABOVE SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO.
..IMY.. 12/28/2008
0 likes
Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, Edwards Limestone, TomballEd, wxman22 and 63 guests