Post-Christmas severe weather outbreak?

[Dave]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 966
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
WESTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 545 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON TENNESSEE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 962...WW 964...WW 965...

DISCUSSION...WELL-DEVELOPED SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE MOVING FROM AR INTO
WRN TN. STRONG AMBIENT FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE WEAKENING
INSTABILITY REDUCES THE SEVERE THREAT LATER TONIGHT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 26035.


...THOMPSON


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 966 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC035-280400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0966.081227T2345Z-081228T0400Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CRITTENDEN


TNC017-023-033-039-045-047-053-069-071-075-077-079-095-097-109-
113-131-157-167-183-280400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0966.081227T2345Z-081228T0400Z/

TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CARROLL CHESTER CROCKETT
DECATUR DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HARDEMAN HARDIN
HAYWOOD HENDERSON HENRY
LAKE LAUDERDALE MADISON
MCNAIRY OBION SHELBY
TIPTON WEAKLEY

[Dave]

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 967
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
710 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHWEST INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY EVENING FROM 710 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CST.

HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 30
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA TO 80 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
OWENSBORO KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 966...

DISCUSSION...A NARROW SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO WRN
KY AND SW INDIANA. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME AND
EWD EXTENT...VERY STRONG FLOW JUST ABOVE THE GROUND WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26040.


...THOMPSON

[Dave]

[Dave]

Northern end of this area is nearing my part of the country.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2543
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN IND SWD THROUGH WRN PARTS OF KY AND TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 966...967...

VALID 280158Z - 280330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
966...967...CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WW AREAS. WHILE AN ADDITIONAL WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...ONE MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED SHOULD STORMS
MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY.

AS OF 0145Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A MOST INTENSE SEGMENT
OF QLCS EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF HUF TO NEAR MKL. SYSTEM MOTION WAS
GENERALLY EWD AT 25 KT...THOUGH EMBEDDED SEGMENTS WERE ACCELERATING
MORE RAPIDLY AT 30-40 KT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A
RATHER WELL-DEFINED PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET HAS DEVELOPED FROM
ERN IND INTO S-CNTRL MO...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG...DYNAMIC
FORCING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE MID MS VALLEY.
00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT INFLOW AIR MASS WAS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE DUE LARGELY TO WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THIS INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS
LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE MAINTENANCE OF THE QLCS.

SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR WITH NRN EXTENSION OF QLCS OVER SRN IL INTO FAR WRN KY. THIS
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WW/S
966 AND 967 BEFORE DECREASING INSTABILITY EVENTUALLY LIMITS A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT.

..MEAD.. 12/28/2008


ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 35538899 37898777 39048734 39508696 39568635 38968603
37158678 35678758 35078819 35208873 35538899