SPO: Invest 93P (ex-90P) - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: This message is issued daily for the information of interested parties.
Media are NOT required to broadcast this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 2:30pm on Wednesday the 24th of December 2008

At the present time there are no significant tropical disturbances in the Coral
Sea.

However, a weak tropical low has been located near the south-east tip of PNG
near 10S 152E. This system is expected to move westwards and move across far
northern Cape York Peninsula on Saturday. Some deepening of the system may
occur.
The potential for a tropical cyclone to develop over the next 3 days is low.

Tropical Cyclone outlooks issued by Brisbane can be accessed through the
Bureau's Home Page http://www.bom.gov.au.

Please note that the Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre issues Tropical
Cyclone Outlooks that cover the Gulf of Carpentaria. See
http:/www.bom.gov.au/weather/nt/cyclone/ or to subscribe to this service
call Darwin 08 8920 3820.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Friday 26 December 2008

There are currently no tropical lows located over water near the Northern
Territory. No tropical cyclone development is expected during this period.

However, a weak tropical low located near the south-east tip of PNG near 10S
146E is moving slowly westwards. This low pressure system will move across far
northern Cape York Peninsula on Saturday morning. Some deepening of the system
may occur later after it enters the Gulf of Carpentaria.



DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Saturday 27 December 2008

A tropical low, 1003hPa, located over the Cape York Peninsula is moving
westwards. This low pressure system will move into the Gulf of Carpentaria
overnight and is expected to continue on a west or southwest track, to be over
land in the Roper-McArthur District on Monday. Some deepening may occur as the
system moves through the warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria and a northwest
monsoonal burst develops to the north. However, the low is not expected to
develop into a Tropical Cyclone during the next three days.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.8S 143.1E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM WEIPA, AUSTRALIA, INDICATE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION AND WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS DISTURBANCE LIES SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATEDAT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS JUST BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS MARGINAL, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.