SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[Stormcenter]

We are up to 35ºf now!!!! Just talked to the wife during lunch and she said it was sleeting here at the house when she left for work at 7am. This is turning out to be a very interesting winter. If the pattern change that is being talked about happens in January it could get even more interesting. The last time I remember two December Winter precip events is never. There have been winters in the past where we have had a couple of icing events and of course the biggest of all besides 1895 is 1973 when we had 3 measurable snows in 5 weeks in January and February.

What pattern change in January are you referring to?

[srainhoutx]

HGX still a bit concerned for areas N and W of Metro area overnight...snipet(wintry issues)...

FXUS64 KHGX 222057
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
257 PM CST MON DEC 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SFC OBS AND BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOW WELL DEFINED COASTAL TROF
DEVELOPING. SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE UP THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
MATAGORDA BAY AREA BY SUNRISE. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPENING LAYER
MOISTURE ABOVE THE SHRINKING LLVL COLD AIR DEPTH AT THE SFC
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME AREAS OF -RA GOING OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
HAVEN`T WARMED UP MUCH TODAY...AND CONCERNED THAT TEMPS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS COULD FALL BACK TO OR BELOW FREEZING WHERE PRECIP
OCCURS...ESP ELEVATED STRUCTURES SUCH AS OVERPASSES. HAD SOME
MINOR ICING ISSUES ON BRIDGES IN BRAZOS COUNTY LAST NIGHT WITH
VERY LIGHT PRECIP AND WOULD FEEL SAFER GOING WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY TONIGHT (NORTH OF A BRENHAM-LIVINGSTON LINE) SINCE IT IS
A TRAVEL WEEK FOR MANY FOLKS. IT`S NOT A CLEAR CUT ISSUE BY ANY
MEANS AND DON`T EXPECT EVERYONE TO SEE PROBLEMS...BUT AM SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED ABOUT BRIDGES. EXPECT TEMPS TO ACTUALLY BEGIN WARMING
FURTHER SOUTH AND TOWARD THE COAST LATER TONIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING
ISSUES THERE.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... 20advisory

[vbhoutex]

We are up to 35ºf now!!!! Just talked to the wife during lunch and she said it was sleeting here at the house when she left for work at 7am. This is turning out to be a very interesting winter. If the pattern change that is being talked about happens in January it could get even more interesting. The last time I remember two December Winter precip events is never. There have been winters in the past where we have had a couple of icing events and of course the biggest of all besides 1895 is 1973 when we had 3 measurable snows in 5 weeks in January and February.

What pattern change in January are you referring to?

A -NAO forming, which tends to make the Southern areas more stormy and allows cold air to dump straight down the plains as opposed to the more zonal flow we have been seeing. Ridge in West, trough in center, ridge East iirc, ie Omega pattern. Some have posted about it in the Texas Winter thread.

[vbhoutex]

Well we had the predicted warm up here in Houston. The low at the house last night before the warm up started was 37ºf before the warm up started around 11 pm. It was 44ºf when I got up and the spiked to 73ºf before a surprise sudden fall back to 63ºf now. It appears we were warm sectored for about 6 hours and then right back out of it. Interesting day so far, at least temp wise.

[jasons2k]

It was strange here too, very similar to that. We were in the warm sector for a little less time. It feels pleasant this evening though.

[CajunMama]

We had some lovely liquid snow. Have the ac on too. It's a warm one today.

[CajunMama]

Front came through earlier tonight and within 30 minutes the temp dropped from 70.6 to 53.9

[vbhoutex]

When the front came through here it went from 78ºf to 58ºf in less than 10 minutes. We left the house for a birthday dinner and I was in shorts and a short sleeve shirt because I hadn't been following the weather much today. By the time we got 5 minutes away from the house it was 58ºf. NOt sure we are going to make our predicted 45ºf low tonight though since it is still 56ºf.

Edit: Well I got a surprise this morning waking up to 44.4ºf .

[southerngale]

I knew about the storms that were coming yesterday, which btw, weren't severe, but were pretty strong. I left during them, and my power was knocked off while I was gone, but it was back by the time I got home. Anyway, I guess I didn't notice the forecast for today. Was all this rain expected?
Also, I do know the high is supposed to be in the 50's. Sitting at 44º at 12:40p.m. I wonder if we'll make it.


Edit: NWS has adjusted today's highs to the upper 40's. They've also lowered the low for the next few nights to the upper 30's. I often wonder why we even look at GFS fantasy model runs more than a day or two out.

[vbhoutex]

We had high based thunderstorms(or at least what I call high based)during church this morning(punctuated the ministers sermon rather well! ). That was totally unexpected as far as I know. Maybe I haven't been following the local weather enough this weekend, but last I saw we were supposed to have afternoon highs in the upper 50's today and we haven't even approached 50 unless you call 46.7ºf approaching 50.

[CajunMama]

It rained alllllllllllllllllll day long here and it looks like the rain has finally moved out. Made for pleasant nap weather though

[Jagno]

Well, the rain God's listened to me today. I'm in the final stages of painting the exterior of my house and we were predicted to have a 90% chance of rain. It drizzled slightly this morning and was absolutely beautiful the rest of the day. I was able to get alot done outdoors. Hopefully I can finish tommorow with only a 30% change of rain in the forecast................................my luck it'll turn into an all day rain. LOL It has been warm and the mosquitoes are multiplying by the triillions.

[Tireman4]

When is the front supposed to come through the Houston area?

[Tireman4]

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... &wmo=99999

Front is a comin' !

[vbhoutex]

Temp has steadily dropped all day. It was 47ºf when I got up and now it has dropped to 38ºf and continues a slow descent. Already below the forecast low of 40ºf for today so we will see how far we go. Still don't see any chance of anything but liquid precipitation, but I figured since this is a shallow air mass that the precip we have had would help bring down the warmer temps, but it seems to be the opposite so far.

[Jagno]

WAKE UP CAJUNS! Have you seen the long term forcast projected for the end of the week? We are not equipped to handle 18 degree temperatures with daytime highs in the 20's. Remember 1994? Get your fuel, propane, fire wood and generators ready, all of the laundry done daily, as well as ice chests ready and start preparing meals ahead of time that can just be "heat and eat" type meals. Although our planting season is only a couple of weeks away be sure to cover your trees and gardens and make arrangements for your pets. Go back and double check any and all pipes to make sure that the insulation hasn't been taken off or slid down exposing any areas to the hard freeze. Oh, and be sure to check the anti-freeze in your vehicles. Remember that our anti-freeze is generally for above freezing temps so you may have to add an anti-freeze designed for below freezing temps. Trust me, it's better to be safe than sorry. We lost plants, had no utilities or water along with a broken radiator and a busted windshield from a falling limb of ice because we did not prepare in 1994. I don't want anyone else to go through this horrible experience or expense if at all possible. Tomorrow and Sunday should be decent enough to get some of these tasks done so utilitize your time wisely.

[LaBreeze]

Do you really think that it will get that cold?

[vbhoutex]

I'm not sure about the pipe busting cold for our areas, but I do think Jagno has some very good points. Hard freezes, which I still think are possible in our areas next week, can wreck havoc with pipes and extended cold periods, espcecially with precipitation of the winter variety involved(if it happens) can wreck havoc with the electrical utilities especially. "Better safe than sorry" is my Mantra.

[cajungal]

WAKE UP CAJUNS! Have you seen the long term forcast projected for the end of the week? We are not equipped to handle 18 degree temperatures with daytime highs in the 20's. Remember 1994? Get your fuel, propane, fire wood and generators ready, all of the laundry done daily, as well as ice chests ready and start preparing meals ahead of time that can just be "heat and eat" type meals. Although our planting season is only a couple of weeks away be sure to cover your trees and gardens and make arrangements for your pets. Go back and double check any and all pipes to make sure that the insulation hasn't been taken off or slid down exposing any areas to the hard freeze. Oh, and be sure to check the anti-freeze in your vehicles. Remember that our anti-freeze is generally for above freezing temps so you may have to add an anti-freeze designed for below freezing temps. Trust me, it's better to be safe than sorry. We lost plants, had no utilities or water along with a broken radiator and a busted windshield from a falling limb of ice because we did not prepare in 1994. I don't want anyone else to go through this horrible experience or expense if at all possible. Tomorrow and Sunday should be decent enough to get some of these tasks done so utilitize your time wisely.

Come on, I know it might get a little chilly. but I don't think it will be that serious!

[Brent]

WAKE UP CAJUNS! Have you seen the long term forcast projected for the end of the week? We are not equipped to handle 18 degree temperatures with daytime highs in the 20's. Remember 1994? Get your fuel, propane, fire wood and generators ready, all of the laundry done daily, as well as ice chests ready and start preparing meals ahead of time that can just be "heat and eat" type meals. Although our planting season is only a couple of weeks away be sure to cover your trees and gardens and make arrangements for your pets. Go back and double check any and all pipes to make sure that the insulation hasn't been taken off or slid down exposing any areas to the hard freeze. Oh, and be sure to check the anti-freeze in your vehicles. Remember that our anti-freeze is generally for above freezing temps so you may have to add an anti-freeze designed for below freezing temps. Trust me, it's better to be safe than sorry. We lost plants, had no utilities or water along with a broken radiator and a busted windshield from a falling limb of ice because we did not prepare in 1994. I don't want anyone else to go through this horrible experience or expense if at all possible. Tomorrow and Sunday should be decent enough to get some of these tasks done so utilitize your time wisely.

I think that's an overreaction. I could see maybe low 20's for lows and upper 30's for highs at the absolute worst and it doesn't look like there be much if any precip around.

Also: The 12z models are not shoving the coldest air into TX/LA, it's much further east, so I dunno if you'll even see what I said above.