Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

[Stephanie]

The 12Z run brings in a possible snow storm for the East Coast on the 8th - a day earlier than the 6z run links that I have above;

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _252.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml

[Portastorm]

I definitely concur jinftl. I don't expect much change in the next 7-10 days. Looks like mostly a zonal flow in Southtown USA and mainly seasonal temps. The modeling beyond 10 days is of interest but we all know to take it with a grain of salt. Many of the pro mets who predicted a very cold December and a blow torch in January are now suggesting that January may not be so warm. Whatever signals the atmosphere is giving, my sense is they are complicated enough that no one really has a good lock on what will happen beyond Day 7.

I asked Santa for just one snow/sleet, work/school-canceling event here in Austin followed by springtime weather.

[jinftl]

That doesn't seem an unreasonable request to Santa at all....Texas has been an 'interesting' battleground state in December....in terms of quick transitions from very cold to very warm and back again. Get some precip at the right time during one of these transitions...and a snow day may very well happen...just take pics because it may not stick around long!

On a side note, your post reminds me of my senior year in high school in the boston area...seniors graduated on a 'set date' so we wouldn't have to 'make up' any snow days at the end of the year. Of course that winter featured little snow, and what did fall, fell on the weekends! No snow days!

I asked Santa for just one snow/sleet, work/school-canceling event here in Austin followed by springtime weather.

[Stephanie]

The modeling beyond 10 days is of interest but we all know to take it with a grain of salt.

Most definitely.

[jinftl]

Amazing shrinking snowpack....image on top is from 12/24/08....image below is from 12/28/08. The snowpack from 4 days ago essentially is gone over the Central Plains...across Indiana and Ohio....into parts of New York state and Southern New England.

[Portastorm]

Everyone must still be in *vacation mode* because I cannot believe no one has posted yet on today's 12z GFS which I will subtitle "Old Man Winter Visits the Southern Plains and Texas."

Pretty much starting at 144 hours (Sunday), we get some good Canadian air in place followed by several more and stronger blasts of Canadian/Arctic air ... and there are some disturbances at the lower levels that may offer ice and snow for some (or a lot) of us. Gotta admit now that the GFS has consistently shown (several days) a pattern change starting late this coming weekend and I'm buying into it. (Portastorm making sure he knows where his kicking shoes are located).

BTW, where's our man EWG?? He must be away from his computer for awhile. I'm sure he'd be posting by now!

Here's a link to the 12z GFS 4-panel charts:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fpc.shtml

[wxman22]

Heres the meteogram charts of the 12z GFS Houston snow? http://wxmaps.org/pix/iahgfsb.png

Austin snow? http://wxmaps.org/pix/ausgfsb.png

Will have to see ofcourse its in lala land but its a little hard to ignore when the GFS has been consistent on showing this weather setup around the 2nd week of Janurary...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Everyone must still be in *vacation mode* because I cannot believe no one has posted yet on today's 12z GFS which I will subtitle "Old Man Winter Visits the Southern Plains and Texas."

Pretty much starting at 144 hours (Sunday), we get some good Canadian air in place followed by several more and stronger blasts of Canadian/Arctic air ... and there are some disturbances at the lower levels that may offer ice and snow for some (or a lot) of us. Gotta admit now that the GFS has consistently shown (several days) a pattern change starting late this coming weekend and I'm buying into it. (Portastorm making sure he knows where his kicking shoes are located).

BTW, where's our man EWG?? He must be away from his computer for awhile. I'm sure he'd be posting by now!

Here's a link to the 12z GFS 4-panel charts:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fpc.shtml

I think some of us are on the "Winter Cancel" bandwagon for the time being. It was downright depressing watching football all over the country weekend before last and in almost every stadium with the exception of Miami, the games were being playing in winter time conditions. Meanwhile here in south Texas, I put my kids swing set together in 90 degree weather Saturday and "enjoyed" shorts on Christmas day with an idle fireplace.

Unitl the GFS ( the Dallas Cowboy weather model) verfies one of these scenerios, it's just another overhyped tool.

BUT, NWS Amarillo did issue a "Bear Watch" for the pattern beyond next week if that helps.

[iorange55]

I think people are still watching the models and coming on here. I think they just don't want to post anything yet, because well we have kind of been let down by the models so far. Although that doesn't really seem like a new thing.

[Portastorm]

Being a native Clevelander sports fan, being "let down" or disappointed is my birthright so I'm used to that!

The 12z Euro is looking pretty good for some cold air coming down our way:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008122912!!

[jinftl]

Anything beyond 5 to 7 days is 'wait and see mode' with model runs for any type of weather ....put another way, if miami got hit by every wave off of Africa that some model developed into a Cat 5 hitting downtown 10 or 14 days out...nuff said.

Rather than specific temps points or snowfall amts so far out, these model runs could be pointing towards a pattern change...trough in the east, ridge out west. But the amount of cold air is just impossible to pinpoint...the atmosphere is so fluid and is always evolving, the models can't pick all of that up...and small changes can lead to huge variability in weather in any one spot.

A return to colder temps in the east could mean anything from seasonable temps....or temps a few degrees below avg....or temps well below avg. Certainly not every front implies record lows will take place or blizzards in dixie...but the outlier model runs do make for the most interesting to look at!

[josephtwyman]

look like more and more that a major change is going to happen in the next three weeks with ice and snow with brutal temperature of record porportions

[Stephanie]

Another long term "interesting" forecast for the Mid Atlantic:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml

The last several that I've posted have hinted at something big for the Mid Atlantic anywhere between 1/8 and 1/10/09. It could be just picking up a pattern change as jinftl has said and may be no more than a rain event for us. However, the hints are there, but there's plenty of time for change. The mid range models will probably lose it somewhere...

[vbhoutex]

look like more and more that a major change is going to happen in the next three weeks with ice and snow with brutal temperature of record porportions

Do tell us more!! Don't be a tease! We want times, places, numbers, everything!!!!

[CaptinCrunch]

Everyone must still be in *vacation mode* because I cannot believe no one has posted yet on today's 12z GFS which I will subtitle "Old Man Winter Visits the Southern Plains and Texas."

Pretty much starting at 144 hours (Sunday), we get some good Canadian air in place followed by several more and stronger blasts of Canadian/Arctic air ... and there are some disturbances at the lower levels that may offer ice and snow for some (or a lot) of us. Gotta admit now that the GFS has consistently shown (several days) a pattern change starting late this coming weekend and I'm buying into it. (Portastorm making sure he knows where his kicking shoes are located).

BTW, where's our man EWG?? He must be away from his computer for awhile. I'm sure he'd be posting by now!

Here's a link to the 12z GFS 4-panel charts:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fpc.shtml

I think some of us are on the "Winter Cancel" bandwagon for the time being. It was downright depressing watching football all over the country weekend before last and in almost every stadium with the exception of Miami, the games were being playing in winter time conditions. Meanwhile here in south Texas, I put my kids swing set together in 90 degree weather Saturday and "enjoyed" shorts on Christmas day with an idle fireplace.

Unitl the GFS ( the Dallas Cowboy weather model) verfies one of these scenerios, it's just another overhyped tool.

BUT, NWS Amarillo did issue a "Bear Watch" for the pattern beyond next week if that helps.

I feel your pain CC, I enjoyed sitting back and watching the Cardinals Patriots game played in a snow storm the Sunday before Christmas.
If I had to sum up December in 1 week, I would say it was the 22nd-26th. We start off monday with a low of 25 (little colder here at the house) and most areas struggled to get to 32 that day (officially 34). Only to end the week with 2 broken records, a high of 83 (record for that date) and a high low of 65, hell just the low was 10 degrees above what the normal high suppost to be, after all this is N.TX not S.FL.

What do I see for January, another month of war between the (Hot Mexican plume vs. The Arctic fronts of Canada) LOL

[double D]

Well, in usual fashion the GFS has really backed off on the cold air for next week. Not saying it won't happen, but not looking as likely as it was yesterday.

Today's 00z, 06z, and 12z models are much warmer.

[Stormcenter]

Well, in usual fashion the GFS has really backed off on the cold air for next week. Not saying it won't happen, but not looking as likely as it was yesterday.

Today's 00z, 06z, and 12z models are much warmer.

Hmmmmm wasn't it the GFS that saw the big warm up in the south during Christmas and
then back off? It turned out to be right. I wonder how this will play out. I would hedge
on a pretty decent cold snap in 10 days for the south. IMO

[Portastorm]

Well, in usual fashion the GFS has really backed off on the cold air for next week. Not saying it won't happen, but not looking as likely as it was yesterday.

Today's 00z, 06z, and 12z models are much warmer.

Hmmmmm wasn't it the GFS that saw the big warm up in the south during Christmas and
then back off? It turned out to be right. I wonder how this will play out. I would hedge
on a pretty decent cold snap in 10 days for the south. IMO

It will all come down to where that Eastern US trough lines up. It seems fairly well established that a very cold, deep trough will be over the east. All the modeling shows that right now and has for days. A more mild zonal flow for Texas and maybe even the western Gulf states wouldn't surprise me one bit though.

[jinftl]

No doubt there will be cold weather and cold weather events...afetr all, it is not even January yet. But it has happened before (take December 2004)..where the most 'noteworthy' winter events (esp in places that don't usually see extreme cold or snow) have taken place in December of the dec-jan-feb winter season.

Not a 'winter cancel' prediction at all....i mean, 'average' January weather can be brutal...but not impossible that some of the most memorable, "unusual" events (snow in New Orleans, Las Vegas) have already happened. That said, it will snow in Miami in a month! lol

Well, in usual fashion the GFS has really backed off on the cold air for next week. Not saying it won't happen, but not looking as likely as it was yesterday.

Today's 00z, 06z, and 12z models are much warmer.

[Stormcenter]

This comment is from this afternoon's HPC long range discussion.

THE UPCOMING PATTERN IS A WINTRY ONE...WITH
SPLIT FLOW SETTING THE STAGE FOR A GOOD DEAL OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NATION.