Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread
Recent GFS runs continue to indicate a very cold pattern setting up for the USA, including the southeast, by early to mid January. Things could definitely get interesting in about a week or two if the recent model trend verifies.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_276m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_288m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_300m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_312m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_324m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_336m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_348m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_360m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_276m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_288m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_300m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_312m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_324m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_336m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_348m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_360m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_276m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_288m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_300m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_312m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_324m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_336m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_348m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_360m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_276m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_288m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_300m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_312m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_324m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_336m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_348m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_360m.gif

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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread
Looked like the GFS 12z is showing a clipper moving SE within this cold high pressure bringing snow to the deep south and even into north FL developing a low off the SE US coast eventually. That would be crazy if it verifies.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread
18z GFS, wow, it's well below 0 C for 4 days.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_300s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_312s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_324s.gif






http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_300s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_312s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_324s.gif




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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread
The 00z run of the GFS offers up yet another wild winter storm, bringing snow and sleet well south into the Gulf of Mexico and then eventually all the way east to Florida and the southeastern United States...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_288l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_300l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_312l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_324l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_288l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_300l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_312l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_324l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_288l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_300l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_312l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_324l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_288l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_300l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_312l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_324l.gif
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread
Has this ever happened before? Currently in SW Louisiana. I would need some time to prepare for temps of 10-15 above 0. Please advise of possibility. 

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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread
06 GFS still showing winter storm along gulfcoast and deep south..and to boot keeps the artic air in place for quite some time for the south




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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread
*drools* Major snowstorm even down to the Gulf Coast from Texas to the Panhandle.








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- Ivanhater
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread
Yeah Brent and also note...the -10 degree line goes all the way to the gulfcoast for some time..and the 0 degree line never lifts north of the gulfcoast from day 10 to the end of the run...6 days! never seen a run like that..
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread
The NAO is supposed to go negative according to pro mets on another forum.I don't fully believe the GFS but we have to look for the trend which the model is showing us.Its really too warm here in Florida.I taught my daughter how to ride a two wheeler today and I was soaked after 5 minutes. The stronger cold fronts will be welcome.
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- vbhoutex
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread
What is becoming impressive about these models is the consistency that far out. I still don't take anything that far out with a grain of salt, but the "trend" is getting my attention, so I shall continue to watch with interest. Knowing that all of it could disappear tomorrow, IF these do verify it could be historical in its length and possible winter precip coverage.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread
Brent, Ivanhater you guys need to keep us updated on these winter wonder model runs. I know they are similar to looking at a cat 4 storm heading straight for us in the 10-14 day timeframe but unreal to look at nonetheless. I would LOVE to see more winter precip down here this year. We got a nice big digital picture frame for christmas and loaded all of our snow pics from a couple of weeks ago on it and were showing them off to everyone. Just amazing to look at when you think about where we live.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread
Brent wrote:
Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't that be like a "major" winter event for the deep south with temps in the teens?
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Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't that be like a "major" winter event for the deep south with temps in the teens?[/QUOTE]
Nope. More like mid 20s on the TN border to around freezing in the panhandle.
We had a -22C 850 temp a week or so ago and it only got down to about 11F here.
I don't consider it really winterlike until the 850 temp gets more than -25C.
For example, this is the 850 temp map when we hit -24F in Knoxville:

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