Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

[jinftl]

Today's CPC 8-14 Day Outlook....ridge out west and trough east....means forecast for colder east, warmer west, and normal (+/-) in the middle. Of course 'normal' can be achieved several ways....either day after day of seasonal temps...or a few days that are really warm and a few that are really cold (think Texas Dec 08)....put them all together and you have 'normal'.

[southerngale]

GFS = Good for Scraps

Where did my cold temps and good chance of snow go? I was ready for more snow, starting to think about ordering snowshoes, etc. Come back, winter wonderland, come back.

[jimvb]

Double D, you say that today's (2008/12/30's) 0Z, 6Z, and 12Z runs are warmer. That may be, but I also note that the 12Z run calls for a really bad case of cold air damming (CAD) along the Mid-Atlantic Appalachians and so therefore a forecast of sleet and some freezing rain for Virginia as far east as the Richmond area.

Check out Coolwx:

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.php?region=ne&model=gfs&run=12&fhr=59&field=ptype

[Stormcenter]

GFS = Good for Scraps

Where did my cold temps and good chance of snow go? I was ready for more snow, starting to think about ordering snowshoes, etc. Come back, winter wonderland, come back.

The chances are still there. We are still over 10 days out...anything is possible but
right now it looks like it will get pretty cold in the deep south in a week or so.
As always everything is subject to change.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF A SUBSTANTIAL
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEGAN INTRODUCING THUNDER BY SUN
EVENING AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES LOOK TO BE QUITE CONDUCIVE
FOR STRONG STORMS...BUT OF COURSE THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK

[iorange55]

I'm thinking the Dallas area and to the north might seem some wintry precip sometime next week, between Monday and Wednesday. I know they're just calling for rain right now. But it seems like with every model run the temps keep on cooling off just a little. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up getting a little wintry precip.

[jinftl]

Could be the midAtlantic and Appalachians turn (even parts of the southeast) to get in on some of the winter weather fun other parts of the country saw in December....i recall many bad ice storm events when CAD takes place in this area.

Double D, you say that today's (2008/12/30's) 0Z, 6Z, and 12Z runs are warmer. That may be, but I also note that the 12Z run calls for a really bad case of cold air damming (CAD) along the Mid-Atlantic Appalachians and so therefore a forecast of sleet and some freezing rain for Virginia as far east as the Richmond area.

Check out Coolwx:

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.php?region=ne&model=gfs&run=12&fhr=59&field=ptype

[jimvb]

I don't regard freezing rain or even sleet or snow as fun. Freezing rain causes slipping and power outages, so I am hoping that GFS 12Z is wrong and that the Jan 6-7 storm is all rain.

[Stephanie]

I don't regard freezing rain or even sleet or snow as fun. Freezing rain causes slipping and power outages, so I am hoping that GFS 12Z is wrong and that the Jan 6-7 storm is all rain.

It's scary as heck. Pretty, but that's about it. I'll take rain over ice any day.

[southerngale]

Freezing rain, sleet, ice... I agree. Nothing fun about that. I have to disagree on the snow part. We had a lot of fun building a snowman earlier this month. It's been decades since this area has seen that kind of snow. It was beautiful and a lot of fun, so I'll keep on wishing for more. I've been through an ice storm, in January, 1997. It was horrible. I wouldn't wish that on my worst enemy.

[cajungal]

Well I really didn't get to have my winter fun yet. snow fell for about 30 min here as I was getting ready for work on Dec 11th. but our temps were a tad bit too warm, it melted as soon as it touched the ground. zero accumulation. it was pretty to watch it fall though. hopefully I can get one more round of snow this winter and actually get accumulation this time. And hopefully it will fall on a day I am off work so I can actually enjoy it.

[josephtwyman]

well, what Isee is probably the biggest snow and ice events coming in the next thre weeks, from san antonio, austin, dallas, and weven in lousiana, mississippi, and even alabamaand especially grorgia! the jet stream and cold weather will provide it , but what could kill it is the extreme cold that is coming that could subliment the moisture from the atmosphere so, if that don't happen than enjoy your winter wonderland!

[Stephanie]

well, what Isee is probably the biggest snow and ice events coming in the next thre weeks, from san antonio, austin, dallas, and weven in lousiana, mississippi, and even alabamaand especially grorgia! the jet stream and cold weather will provide it , but what could kill it is the extreme cold that is coming that could subliment the moisture from the atmosphere so, if that don't happen than enjoy your winter wonderland!

Do you have any sources for these predictions?

[josephtwyman]

I have been checking these models like others and been watching how these models are becoming similar and all are saying the same thing, with the way the pattern is with jet stream and the occurances of other sources is what make more sure than ever!

[vbhoutex]

I have been checking these models like others and been watching how these models are becoming similar and all are saying the same thing, with the way the pattern is with jet stream and the occurances of other sources is what make more sure than ever!

None of this is anywhere near set in stone this far out. If you have a source that can make me believe it will definitely happen please bring it on with a link! I'm sure we would all like to see it so we can plan accordingly. Again, dates and times and more specific place of occurance information would be wonderful.

[Valkhorn]

I'll believe the cold and snow when I see it. For those of you who really want cold air and snow I'm pretty sure flights to the Yukon aren't booked solid this time of year

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS 2 meter temps January 13th- killing freeze at DW Hooks, -2.7ºC.


I think my palms and my orange tree could handle that. But it would be spooky, and, two weeks away, it probably won't happen.

[arizonasooner]

None of the really really cold forecasts have verified this winter. No worries for palms/citrus in south Houston.

[Ed Mahmoud]

the extreme cold that is coming that could subliment the moisture from the atmosphere

How can something that is already a gas (water vapor) sublimate?


Or are we talking falling snow sublimating (virga)?


Anyway, semi-off topic, looks like the 1 to 4 inches of snow for NYC tomorrow ends before dark, depriving us of the ultimate spectacle, "Dick Clark's Rockin' New Year's Eve with Ryan Seacrest" in the snow.

Also bumming no significant weather under the broken roof at Reliant as Rice easily handled Western Michigan in the most prestigious of all non-ESPN televised games, The Texas Bowl.

[wxman22]

This is interesting even though its in lala land the 0z GFS has brought back the threat of frozen precip in Houston...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/iahgfsb.png

[jinftl]

Would a temp of 27F really be that spooky for Houston in January? That is still 10 or so degrees above most records for early January. Sounds spookier in Celsius.

GFS 2 meter temps January 13th- killing freeze at DW Hooks, -2.7ºC.


I think my palms and my orange tree could handle that. But it would be spooky, and, two weeks away, it probably won't happen.